B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KTOS
Kratos Defense Security SolutionsBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong Q2 growth, rising bookings, favorable book-to-bill, and higher FY2026 revenue guidance support a constructive medium-term thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +16.0.
What can break
Execution risk remains elevated as bookings must convert into revenue and production capacity.
Momentum
37
Value
39
Sentiment
86
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $55.50 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $49.00Analysis 2026-08-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $102.36
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -27.4
Value39 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment86 · Δ7d +16.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +16.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk remains elevated as bookings must convert into revenue and production capacity.
- • Multiple officers and directors reported open-market sales in August 2026. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-14]
- • The operating loss, negative free cash flow, elevated R&D and capital investment, working-capital needs, and recent insider selling argue against aggressive conviction.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 results and higher FY2026 revenue guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-27.4
Δ21d
-17.4
Value
39
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
86
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.0
Δ21d
-12.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 36.6 / Value 39.4 / Sentiment 85.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$55.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.88B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
187.72M
P/E (TTM)
737.8
P/S (TTM)
11.82
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-86.89
Rev YoY
+30.5%
EPS YoY
+26.1%
Gross Margin
+21.6%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
-$414.8M
Current Ratio
5.54
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data