B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KTOS
Kratos Defense Security SolutionsCNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 organic growth and bookings support the raised revenue outlook. Zacks reported adjusted EPS of $0.21 versus $0.13 consensus and revenue of $458.8 million versus $412 million consensus; the SEC-filed company release confirms the reported results, though not those consensus figures.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Bookings and program activity may not convert to revenue or profit on the anticipated timetable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
10
Value
39
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $95.31
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +0.3
Value39 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +6.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bookings and program activity may not convert to revenue or profit on the anticipated timetable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • September Form 4 filings show open-market sales by the CFO and a division president; these are monitoring signals, not evidence of weaker operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-23] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-17]
- • A Q2 operating loss and negative operating cash flow show that rapid growth has not yet translated into dependable cash generation.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29
Cash conversion and margin test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
39
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
76
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.5
Δ21d
+2.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 10.1 / Value 39.2 / Sentiment 76.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.26B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
187.72M
P/E (TTM)
737.8
P/S (TTM)
11.82
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-53.10
Rev YoY
+30.5%
EPS YoY
+26.1%
Gross Margin
+21.6%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
-$414.8M
Current Ratio
5.54
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data