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KRMN

KarmanD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record revenue, 24.4% organic growth, $1.3 billion of backlog, nearly $500 million of bookings and higher FY2026 guidance support a constructive growth thesis. Successful capacity expansion and backlog conversion could sustain momentum into 2027 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.2.
What can break
Backlog may convert more slowly than expected because of production ramps, customer-program timing or execution constraints.
Momentum
7
Value
40
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $44.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $81.75
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +1.2
Value40 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -6.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog may convert more slowly than expected because of production ramps, customer-program timing or execution constraints.
  • • Failure to achieve the raised FY2026 revenue or adjusted-EBITDA ranges could trigger a sharp expectations reset.
  • • The thesis depends on timely backlog conversion, production execution and integration discipline.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Leverage and acquisition-integration checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+3.1
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.2
Δ21d
-16.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 7.3 / Value 39.8 / Sentiment 56.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.86B
Beta
-
Shares Out
132.53M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
279.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-175.53
Rev YoY
+58.2%
EPS YoY
+106.0%
Gross Margin
+34.3%
Op Margin
+19.5%
Net Debt
$553.35M
Current Ratio
3.56
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data