B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KMB
Kimberly-ClarkDNasdaq / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted gross margin rose 190 basis points year over year and adjusted continuing-operations EPS rose 10.4%; sustained productivity and a recovery in China could improve earnings quality. These are company-reported, partly adjusted measures.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-11-03.
What can break
China diaper-sales disruption may persist beyond management's near-term expectations. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
58
Value
47
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $94.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $75.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
10 · Disqualified
Next 2026-11-05 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-03 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-11-04 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-03
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-03
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-03. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $113.53
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d -16.3
Value47 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
10Disqualified2026-11-05 bmo
Kimberly-Clark’s Oct. 15 preliminary Q3 release had already disclosed estimated adjusted EPS of $1.70 and net sales of $4.134B, substantially pre-empting any fresh Q3 earnings-surprise thesis; it also reported negative organic sales and reaffirmed its prior full-year outlook. Shares then fell sharply on Nov. 3 on unusually high volume and closed near the low.
Screen as of 2026-11-04. Window 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-10.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-11-03.
- • News driver: Kimberly-Clark Offers Bonds to Help Fund Tylenol Maker Takeover.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China diaper-sales disruption may persist beyond management's near-term expectations. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Reported margin improvement included one-time tariff refunds; pricing investments and supply-chain spending may limit repeatability. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Q2 organic sales were slightly negative, while China disruption, price investments and business exits weighed on performance.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05 · BMO
President and COO departure
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
58
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.3
Δ21d
+17.7
Value
47
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.5
Sentiment
45
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-12.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 57.8 / Value 47.1 / Sentiment 45.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$94.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-03
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-03
Market Cap
$34.74B
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
332.58M
P/E (TTM)
18.3
P/S (TTM)
1.80
P/FCF (TTM)
1479.49
Rev YoY
+0.6%
EPS YoY
-32.2%
Gross Margin
+36.8%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
$6.78B
Current Ratio
0.91
As of 2026-11-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data