B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KEY
KeyCorpCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 showed real operating improvement: higher NII, sequential NIM expansion, commercial loan growth, solid credit metrics, and active buybacks, which can help sentiment if repeated.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Because KEY is high coverage, a solid Q1 may already be substantially reflected in expectations.
Momentum
34
Value
52
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
12 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $23.50 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-04-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $25.14
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d +3.9
Value52 · Δ7d -9.2
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +3.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Because KEY is high coverage, a solid Q1 may already be substantially reflected in expectations.
- • Capital return upside may disappoint if Basel III relief is delayed, narrowed, or offset by management conservatism.
- • This is still a high-coverage bank where much of the good quarter may already be recognized, and the thesis weakens quickly if deposit-cost relief fades, credit normalizes worse, or capital flexibility does not improve.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-30
Q1 2026 post-earnings digestion after stronger NII, NIM, and buybacks
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
34
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-4.4
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+7.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 34.0 / Value 52.1 / Sentiment 66.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.59B
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
1.07B
P/E (TTM)
26.4
P/S (TTM)
3.69
P/FCF (TTM)
11.11
Rev YoY
-2.2%
EPS YoY
+24.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.0%
Net Debt
$10.21B
Current Ratio
0.45
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data