B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KBH
KB HomeANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-print argument is that the June 23, 2026 release looked better than feared on revenue and forward cadence: Q2 revenue of $1.11 billion exceeded the packet's pre-print consensus figure of $1.09 billion, cancellations improved to 12% from 16%, community count expanded, and management projected sequentially better deliveries and gross margins in H2 FY2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-06-23].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.5.
What can break
Affordability pressure, elevated mortgage rates, and cautious consumer sentiment can keep demand soft even if community count rises.
Momentum
37
Value
57
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.67
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -2.8
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +12.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Affordability pressure, elevated mortgage rates, and cautious consumer sentiment can keep demand soft even if community count rises.
- • Gross margin remains under pressure from price reductions, higher relative land costs, and reduced operating leverage [#SEC-8K-2026-06-23].
- • The bear case remains that year-over-year deterioration is still severe: revenue fell 27%, deliveries fell 23%, gross margin compressed to 15.2%, orders fell 4%, backlog value fell 7%, and price reductions plus reduced operating leverage are still weighing on profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-06-23].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-23
Q2 print reset expectations but kept H2 improvement narrative alive
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-3.2
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-12.0
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.5
Δ21d
+12.2
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 36.7 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 82.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.4B
Beta
1.48
Shares Out
61.31M
P/E (TTM)
8.8
P/S (TTM)
0.62
P/FCF (TTM)
14.61
Rev YoY
-27.3%
EPS YoY
-71.2%
Gross Margin
+17.0%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
$1.48B
Current Ratio
6.80
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data