B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
KALU
Kaiser AluminumDNasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$131.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-02-19
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+24.3
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+24.3
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-24.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+41.8
Score
AI commentary
Market reaction to the Feb 18 release was cautiously positive: revenue and record annual EBITDA were highlighted, but guidance and EPS cadence left limited conviction [#SEC-2026-02-18][#PPT-Q4-2025]. Street targets cluster near the mid‑$120s to low‑$130s, implying constrained upside versus the broker_last anchor; near‑term sentiment will hinge on execution and any formal buyback/dividend actions [#SERP-2].
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-02-19
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-02-18eventQ4 / Full‑Year 2025 results and 2026 guidance (release & 8‑K)High impact
Company announced Q4 revenue $929.0M, Q4 adjusted EBITDA $198.2M, full‑year adjusted EBITDA $776.7M and Q4 adjusted EPS $1.53; management released 2026 guidance (shipments roughly flat vs. 2025; adjusted EBITDA $720M–$800M; capex ≈ $170M) in a press release and Form 8‑K on 2026-02-18 [#SEC-2026-02-18][#IR-2026-02-18][#PPT-Q4-2025].
2026-05-20catalystFiling of audited Form 10‑K for fiscal 2025Medium impact
The company has not yet posted a consolidated 2025 Form 10‑K on EDGAR; the 10‑K will include audited financials, MD&A and risk‑factor updates that can materially reframe 2026 guidance assumptions (SEC filings index and recent 8‑K) [#SERP-4][#SEC-2026-02-18].
2026-05-20catalystSell‑side analyst re‑ratings & target revisionsMedium impact
Multiple outlets show a tight analyst target band and small analyst coverage; following the Feb 18 results and the upcoming 10‑K, analysts may update 12‑month targets and recommendations (examples: Investing.com, MarketWatch consensus snippets) which can reprice the stock [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-02-19 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology