KALU

Kaiser AluminumB

Nasdaq / Materials

At close

2026-06-03

View Chart

AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment AI

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$145.00

-22.2% vs current

Most likely

Base case

55%

Probability

Target price

$131.00

-29.7% vs current

B-

Bear case

20%

Probability

Target price

$118.00

-36.7% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-02-19

AI commentary

Market reaction to the Feb 18 release was cautiously positive: revenue and record annual EBITDA were highlighted, but guidance and EPS cadence left limited conviction [#SEC-2026-02-18][#PPT-Q4-2025]. Street targets cluster near the mid‑$120s to low‑$130s, implying constrained upside versus the broker_last anchor; near‑term sentiment will hinge on execution and any formal buyback/dividend actions [#SERP-2].

RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-02-19

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-02-18eventQ4 / Full‑Year 2025 results and 2026 guidance (release & 8‑K)High impact

Company announced Q4 revenue $929.0M, Q4 adjusted EBITDA $198.2M, full‑year adjusted EBITDA $776.7M and Q4 adjusted EPS $1.53; management released 2026 guidance (shipments roughly flat vs. 2025; adjusted EBITDA $720M–$800M; capex ≈ $170M) in a press release and Form 8‑K on 2026-02-18 [#SEC-2026-02-18][#IR-2026-02-18][#PPT-Q4-2025].

2026-05-20catalystFiling of audited Form 10‑K for fiscal 2025Medium impact

The company has not yet posted a consolidated 2025 Form 10‑K on EDGAR; the 10‑K will include audited financials, MD&A and risk‑factor updates that can materially reframe 2026 guidance assumptions (SEC filings index and recent 8‑K) [#SERP-4][#SEC-2026-02-18].

2026-05-20catalystSell‑side analyst re‑ratings & target revisionsMedium impact

Multiple outlets show a tight analyst target band and small analyst coverage; following the Feb 18 results and the upcoming 10‑K, analysts may update 12‑month targets and recommendations (examples: Investing.com, MarketWatch consensus snippets) which can reprice the stock [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-02-19 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology