B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
KALU
Kaiser AluminumDNasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: execution beats 2026 guidance, sustained pricing in aerospace/industrial segments, plus a formal buyback or higher dividend that re-rates multiples and lifts shares above the current range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
Analyst downgrades or headline-driven sentiment swings after 10‑K/coverage changes
Momentum
33
Value
58
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $131.00 · Bull $145.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-02-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $170.50
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d +8.3
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst downgrades or headline-driven sentiment swings after 10‑K/coverage changes
- • Downside if 2026 EBITDA prints at or below the low end of guidance
- • Bear case: weaker-than-expected 2026 shipments or margin compression from operational disruptions and higher input costs lead to EBITDA near the low end of guidance and push valuation toward analysts' low targets.
Catalyst clock
2026-02-18
Q4 / Full‑Year 2025 results and 2026 guidance (release & 8‑K)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
-42.9
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+12.2
Sentiment
47
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-1.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 33.5 / Value 57.6 / Sentiment 47.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-19. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$131.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.03B
Beta
1.41
Shares Out
16.35M
P/E (TTM)
21.8
P/S (TTM)
0.61
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
89.63
Rev YoY
+52.7%
EPS YoY
+306.4%
Gross Margin
+11.6%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$1.09B
Current Ratio
2.50
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data