B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KALU
Kaiser AluminumANasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Third-quarter shipments rose from 270 million to 300 million pounds and conversion revenue rose from $351 million to $439 million year over year. Lower net leverage and continued demand could support further returns from installed capacity.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.6.
What can break
Automotive-extrusion shipments declined year over year, even as other end markets improved. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
Momentum
40
Value
63
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $110.00 · Bull $130.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $170.20
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -15.6
Value63 · Δ7d +3.6
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +11.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Automotive-extrusion shipments declined year over year, even as other end markets improved. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
- • Metal-price lag can materially distort period-to-period EBITDA comparisons. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
- • Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.1% from 23.2%.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Fourth-quarter margin and outlook test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.6
Δ21d
-16.9
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+3.7
Sentiment
72
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.6
Δ21d
+9.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 39.5 / Value 62.8 / Sentiment 71.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.75B
Beta
1.41
Shares Out
16.35M
P/E (TTM)
21.8
P/S (TTM)
0.61
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
51.83
Rev YoY
+52.7%
EPS YoY
+306.4%
Gross Margin
+11.6%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$1.09B
Current Ratio
2.50
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data