B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JVA
CoffeeDNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source support exists for a rebound path: management tied Q2 weakness mainly to a sharp coffee-price decline and said lower input costs, new business wins, and Cafe Caribe margin support could help the balance of 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-06-12].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Continued volatility in green coffee prices could keep pricing and customer ordering patterns unstable.
Momentum
47
Value
50
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.00 · Bull $4.00 · Bear $2.40Analysis 2026-06-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -
Value50 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued volatility in green coffee prices could keep pricing and customer ordering patterns unstable.
- • Loose peer set and limited external revision data reduce confidence in valuation triangulation.
- • The same filing shows current fundamentals are soft now, not just optically: sales fell, promotions increased, customers delayed purchases, packaging costs stayed elevated, and net income compressed sharply, so any recovery thesis still needs proof [#SEC-8K-2026-06-12].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q2 print showed commodity-led sales and margin compression
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-18.6
Sentiment
37
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 46.6 / Value 50.0 / Sentiment 36.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$20.09M
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
5.71M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
0.23
P/FCF (TTM)
4.09
Rev YoY
-5.1%
EPS YoY
-59.2%
Gross Margin
+11.0%
Op Margin
-2.2%
Net Debt
$7.69M
Current Ratio
3.62
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data