B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JVA
CoffeeFNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source support exists for a rebound path: management tied Q2 weakness mainly to a sharp coffee-price decline and said lower input costs, new business wins, and Cafe Caribe margin support could help the balance of 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-06-12].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Continued volatility in green coffee prices could keep pricing and customer ordering patterns unstable.
Momentum
47
Value
49
Sentiment
18
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.00 · Bull $4.00 · Bear $2.40Analysis 2026-06-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -
Value49 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment18 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued volatility in green coffee prices could keep pricing and customer ordering patterns unstable.
- • Loose peer set and limited external revision data reduce confidence in valuation triangulation.
- • The same filing shows current fundamentals are soft now, not just optically: sales fell, promotions increased, customers delayed purchases, packaging costs stayed elevated, and net income compressed sharply, so any recovery thesis still needs proof [#SEC-8K-2026-06-12].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q2 print showed commodity-led sales and margin compression
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
18
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 46.6 / Value 48.5 / Sentiment 18.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$25.58M
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
5.71M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
0.23
P/FCF (TTM)
4.09
Rev YoY
-5.1%
EPS YoY
-59.2%
Gross Margin
+11.0%
Op Margin
-2.2%
Net Debt
$7.69M
Current Ratio
3.62
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data