B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JRVR
James River GroupCNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed a 92.8% E&S combined ratio, lower adverse reserve development, and substantial expense reductions. If those gains persist while targeted submissions turn into profitable retained premium, the discounted valuation could narrow.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-09 · AMC.
What can break
E&S gross written premium fell 17% year over year; sustained volume contraction could offset improved underwriting margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Momentum
18
Value
64
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.50 · Bull $5.00 · Bear $2.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-09 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-02 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-02 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-02
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-02
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-02. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.73
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +2.0
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-09 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • E&S gross written premium fell 17% year over year; sustained volume contraction could offset improved underwriting margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • Management described additional capacity entering parts of the E&S market, creating pricing and risk-selection pressure. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]
- • Adjusted operating income fell to $10.0 million from $11.7 million a year earlier, total gross written premium declined 29%, and the E&S top-up adverse-development cover is exhausted.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-09 · AMC
Reserve performance after reinsurance cover exhaustion
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
18
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-6.6
Value
64
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
48
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-18.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 18.2 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 47.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-02
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-02
Market Cap
$183.61M
Beta
-0.03
Shares Out
46.25M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
4.6
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
1077.21
Rev YoY
-7.7%
EPS YoY
+58.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
$67.45M
Current Ratio
0.40
As of 2026-11-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data