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JRVR

James River GroupA
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed positive GAAP earnings, a 92.8% E&S combined ratio, 1% growth in tangible common equity per share, and continued expense control. The E&S-focused strategy could improve returns if submission growth converts into disciplined premium growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -16.3.
What can break
Adjusted net operating income fell year over year despite higher GAAP net income.
Momentum
28
Value
72
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.70 · Bull $5.40 · Bear $3.30Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.73
Why
Momentum28 · Δ7d -0.9
Value72 · Δ7d +8.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d -16.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -16.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted net operating income fell year over year despite higher GAAP net income.
  • • Gross written premium declined 29% year over year, with Specialty Admitted down 76%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
  • • Adjusted operating income declined year over year and gross written premium contracted sharply, particularly in Specialty Admitted.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-10

Q2 2026 results were operationally mixed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
28
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-0.4
Value
72
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+8.0
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.3
Δ21d
-34.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 27.6 / Value 71.9 / Sentiment 76.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$4.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$185.88M
Beta
-0.03
Shares Out
46.24M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
4.7
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
1077.21
Rev YoY
-7.7%
EPS YoY
+58.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
$67.45M
Current Ratio
0.40
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data