JOE

St JoeC

NYSE / Real Estate Management & Development

At close

2026-07-21

Current thesis

The constructive case is that JOE is proving it can convert a very large Northwest Florida land position into higher-priced homesites, growing recurring hospitality/leasing revenue, and shareholder returns at the same time; 2025 revenue rose 27% to $513.2M and net income rose 56% to $115.6M, while contracted homesites and the new PulteGroup relationship extend forward visibility [#8-K-2026-02-25] [#PR-2026-03-05].

Posture

Mixed

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite.

What can break

A large entitled pipeline can still slip on permitting, infrastructure timing, or community phasing.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $71.00 · Bull $76.00 · Bear $61.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-21

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-21 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-21 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-21

Supporting evidence

What

Grade C · Mixed

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Why

Momentum26 · Δ7d -0.2

Value64 · Δ7d -

Sentiment52 · Δ7d -3.2

So what

Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

-0.2

Δ21d

-28.9

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

Δ21d

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-3.2

Δ21d

+0.6

Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 25.7 / Value 64.1 / Sentiment 51.7

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-21

Market Cap

$3.48B

Beta

1.33

Shares Out

57.41M

P/E (TTM)

34.3

P/S (TTM)

7.30

P/FCF (TTM)

25.90

Rev YoY

+5.1%

EPS YoY

-19.2%

Gross Margin

+34.1%

Op Margin

+27.1%

Net Debt

$264.31M

Current Ratio

19.54

As of 2026-07-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology