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JOBY

Joby AviationC
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 improved forward visibility through a higher revenue outlook, continued certification progress, five aircraft flying, 12 in production, and planned Texas eIPP flights. On-time execution could shift the narrative from development to commercialization.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-20.
What can break
First passengers in 2026 and FAA certification timing are management targets, not completed milestones; eIPP demonstration flights may not translate into certified recurring passenger revenue. [#IR-2026-08-05]
Momentum
5
Value
34
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $6.80 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $4.20Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $10.56
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d -4.0
Value34 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-20.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • First passengers in 2026 and FAA certification timing are management targets, not completed milestones; eIPP demonstration flights may not translate into certified recurring passenger revenue. [#IR-2026-08-05]
  • • Peer comparability is weak and the packet lacks social, options, short-interest, and complete analyst-revision data.
  • • The company remains deeply loss-making, with substantial expected cash use.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 results raised revenue outlook but losses remain substantial

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
-7.2
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
81
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
-18.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 5.4 / Value 33.7 / Sentiment 81.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.82B
Beta
2.57
Shares Out
989.12M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-7.0
P/S (TTM)
645.87
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.76
Rev YoY
+257493.3%
EPS YoY
-37.9%
Gross Margin
-3.7%
Op Margin
-754.0%
Net Debt
-$1.36B
Current Ratio
17.98
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data