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JCI

Johnson Controls InternationalC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-print bull case is straightforward: JCI delivered a clean beat-and-raise, record backlog, and strong order growth, while management explicitly tied momentum to data centers and other high-growth mission-critical environments. Reuters reported the FY2026 adjusted profit outlook was raised to $4.85 from $4.70, reinforcing that the earnings upside was not only backward-looking.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Execution risk remains around the Business System transformation narrative; the June 1, 2026 investor event needs to validate that productivity and speed-to-market gains are durable rather than presentation-led.
Momentum
61
Value
49
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $145.50 · Bull $154.00 · Bear $126.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $167.00
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d +24.8
Value49 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk remains around the Business System transformation narrative; the June 1, 2026 investor event needs to validate that productivity and speed-to-market gains are durable rather than presentation-led.
  • • Macro, trade, and supply-chain volatility remain live risks in management's forward-looking caution language, especially for a globally exposed capital-goods supplier.
  • • The bear read is that much of the operational improvement is already understood, and the immediate market reaction was muted to negative despite the beat.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Q2 beat-and-raise with record backlog resets near-term expectations

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
61
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+24.8
Δ21d
+5.8
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 61.0 / Value 49.4 / Sentiment 62.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$154.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$145.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$126.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$93.24B
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
605.74M
P/E (TTM)
46.3
P/S (TTM)
3.15
P/FCF (TTM)
38.59
Rev YoY
+9.3%
EPS YoY
+15.1%
Gross Margin
+36.6%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$10.81B
Current Ratio
0.97
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data