B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JAKK
JAKKS PacificDNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that international growth, stronger Action Play & Collectibles, lower inventory, and a maintained dividend suggest the 2025 stabilization has not broken, even with a seasonally weak quarter.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.
What can break
Customer concentration remains high: Walmart and Target together accounted for 50.4% of Q1 2026 net sales in the 10-Q [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Momentum
95
Value
55
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.50
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +0.6
Value55 · Δ7d -1.4
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -5.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration remains high: Walmart and Target together accounted for 50.4% of Q1 2026 net sales in the 10-Q [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
- • Gross margin fell to 33.4% from 34.4% and adjusted EBITDA moved to a small loss, showing limited operating cushion if product mix or demand worsens [#PR-2026-04-30].
- • The bear read is that North America remains soft, Dolls/Role-Play fell sharply, gross margin compressed, and Q1 losses widened, so investors still need proof that the domestic rebuild can outweigh weaker licensed mix and cautious customers.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-29
Cash balance and dividend support sentiment, but topline proof is still required
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
95
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+11.2
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-2.3
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
-16.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 95.1 / Value 55.1 / Sentiment 34.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$349.3M
Beta
1.61
Shares Out
11.45M
P/E (TTM)
35.0
P/S (TTM)
0.34
P/FCF (TTM)
20.99
Rev YoY
+16.9%
EPS YoY
-337.3%
Gross Margin
+32.0%
Op Margin
+2.6%
Net Debt
-$5.17M
Current Ratio
1.72
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data