B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JAGX
Jaguar HealthANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The January licensing arrangement supplied substantial non-dilutive capital and shifted commercial costs away from Jaguar, while the MVID program now has defined year-end 2026 clinical-package and Q2 2027 NDA objectives. Successful regulatory execution could produce an outsized re-rating from the current micro-cap valuation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-19].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Additional financing may be required before the clinical and regulatory milestones generate value, creating dilution or unfavorable-security risk.
Momentum
68
Value
41
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.32 · Bull $0.80 · Bear $0.10Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.50
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Additional financing may be required before the clinical and regulatory milestones generate value, creating dilution or unfavorable-security risk.
- • Failure to establish a quorum at the September special meeting may delay actions requiring stockholder approval and adds uncertainty about future proposals [#8-K-2026-09-04].
- • The clinical case rests on observations from very few patients, the company continues to depend on external capital, and the licensing structure sacrifices direct U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Completion of the MVID clinical package is the main 2026 value inflection
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 68.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 82.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$0.32
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.32M
Beta
0.10
Shares Out
4.91M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.0
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.01
Rev YoY
-58.9%
EPS YoY
-95.6%
Gross Margin
+75.0%
Op Margin
-90.2%
Net Debt
$35.78M
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data