B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JAGX
Jaguar HealthANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The October 14 company report adds an early SBS-IF clinical signal, while a completed MVID package and eventual NDA filing could increase confidence in the rare-disease program. The pilot was open-label and enrolled only six planned participants, so the signal is preliminary [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-10-14].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +27.9.
What can break
Series R dividend entitlement, due-bill trading and November conversion complicate per-common-share price comparisons and may create substantial volatility.
Momentum
1
Value
41
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.80 · Bull $4.30 · Bear $1.10Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-29
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.50
Why
Momentum1 · Δ7d +0.0
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment100 · Δ7d +27.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +27.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Series R dividend entitlement, due-bill trading and November conversion complicate per-common-share price comparisons and may create substantial volatility.
- • The adult SBS-IF pilot is small, ongoing and open-label; reported patient responses are mixed, and the controlled Phase 2 readout is not expected until the second half of 2027.
- • Only two of four pilot completers had lower ostomy volume at 12 weeks, averaging a 5% reduction; this does not establish controlled efficacy.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
Series R preferred-share conversion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
1
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
100
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+27.9
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 1.1 / Value 40.7 / Sentiment 100.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$2.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$4.74M
Beta
0.10
Shares Out
2.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.0
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.02
Rev YoY
-58.9%
EPS YoY
-95.6%
Gross Margin
+75.0%
Op Margin
-90.2%
Net Debt
$35.78M
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data