B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$0.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JAGX
Jaguar HealthBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The January 2026 Future Pak transaction brought meaningful non-dilutive capital, reduced operating complexity, and lets Jaguar focus on rare-disease crofelemer programs; if Q2 2026 MVID data are supportive, the equity could rerate sharply from a distressed base [#PR-2026-01-12][#PR-2026-01-22].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Going-concern risk remains explicit in the 2026 10-K despite the January licensing cash infusion.
Momentum
68
Value
41
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.38 · Bull $0.90 · Bear $0.12Analysis 2026-04-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.50
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Going-concern risk remains explicit in the 2026 10-K despite the January licensing cash infusion.
- • Nasdaq listing risk is still material if Jaguar fails to sustain stockholders' equity above the required threshold.
- • The 10-K still raises substantial doubt about Jaguar's ability to continue as a going concern and says current resources are insufficient through March 2027, while Nasdaq compliance, additional financing needs, and binary clinical outcomes remain unresolved [#10-K-2026-04-07][#8-K-2026-04-09].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Future Pak post-closing cash receipts and initial product sales need to convert from promise to cash
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 68.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 72.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$0.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.12
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.32M
Beta
0.10
Shares Out
4.91M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.0
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.01
Rev YoY
-58.9%
EPS YoY
-95.6%
Gross Margin
+75.0%
Op Margin
-90.2%
Net Debt
$35.78M
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data