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ITW

Illinois Tool WorksC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-print bull case is that ITW again converted modest demand into strong EPS, margin, and cash generation: Q1 beat consensus, FY2026 guidance was raised, and mixed analyst reaction still included targets above the $255.47 anchor price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Muted organic growth in Q1 2026 at 0.4% raises the risk that EPS upside remains more margin/tax/capital-allocation driven than volume driven. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Momentum
59
Value
52
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $270.00 · Bull $287.00 · Bear $238.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $305.92
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d -3.3
Value52 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Muted organic growth in Q1 2026 at 0.4% raises the risk that EPS upside remains more margin/tax/capital-allocation driven than volume driven. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
  • • Raw-material inflation and supply shortages remain a stated 10-K risk, and management acknowledges price recovery can lag cost pressure. [#10-K-2026-02-13]
  • • The bear case is that the quarter was quality but not broad demand-driven: organic growth was only 0.4%, several segments remained negative, the stock did not sustain enthusiasm after the release, and broader rating language remains cautious rather than decisively bullish.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q1 beat with raised FY2026 EPS guide [#8-K-2026-04-30]

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
59
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-2.8
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 59.0 / Value 52.5 / Sentiment 62.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$287.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$238.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$81.82B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
284.8M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
4.56
P/FCF (TTM)
66.80
Rev YoY
+6.1%
EPS YoY
+10.2%
Gross Margin
+43.7%
Op Margin
+26.5%
Net Debt
$8.36B
Current Ratio
1.11
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data