B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.16
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IRWD
IronwoodBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong LINZESS pricing and prescription growth, raised 2026 guidance, positive Q2 profitability, and repayment of $200 million in convertible notes support cash-flow and balance-sheet improvement. STARS-2 provides longer-term optionality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.2.
What can break
LINZESS remains the principal commercial driver, creating concentration and execution risk.
Momentum
37
Value
72
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.46 · Bull $5.16 · Bear $3.10Analysis 2026-08-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.10
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d +1.2
Value72 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +9.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • LINZESS remains the principal commercial driver, creating concentration and execution risk.
- • Peer comparisons are loose because the candidate set mixes commercial biopharma and clinical-stage companies.
- • The near-term positive print may already be substantially priced in, while the stock remains exposed to LINZESS execution, limited forward clinical visibility, and uncertainty around STARS-2 and apraglutide commercialization.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
STARS-2 Phase 3 recruitment execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-28.0
Value
72
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.5
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.2
Δ21d
+2.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 36.9 / Value 71.5 / Sentiment 70.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.46
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$720.45M
Beta
0.16
Shares Out
165.24M
P/E (TTM)
32.7
P/S (TTM)
2.20
P/FCF (TTM)
11.04
Rev YoY
+32.6%
EPS YoY
+123.3%
Gross Margin
+99.5%
Op Margin
+60.6%
Net Debt
$382.35M
Current Ratio
6.06
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data