B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IRDM
IridiumFNasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Iridium still has credible operating hooks: commercial IoT revenue grew 11% in the fourth quarter of 2025, commercial IoT subscribers rose 6%, and the new 9604 platform creates a concrete 2026 product milestone that could extend specialized connectivity demand [#PR-2026-02-12] [#PR-2026-02-24].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
April 23, 2026 results could expose softer subscriber or service-revenue trends than the current 2026 framework implies.
Momentum
65
Value
49
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.00
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -11.9
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment22 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • April 23, 2026 results could expose softer subscriber or service-revenue trends than the current 2026 framework implies.
- • Hosted payload timing, government mix shifts, or broader satellite-competition narratives could pressure sentiment even if core operations remain stable.
- • The company itself framed 2026 as only flat to 2% service-revenue growth, with OEBITDA stepping down versus 2025 because incentive compensation shifts to cash; that is a limited-growth setup for a stock already trading above the packet's summarized analyst median target.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-23
First-quarter 2026 results on April 23
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.9
Δ21d
-17.5
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
22
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+3.9
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 65.1 / Value 48.9 / Sentiment 22.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.3B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
105.96M
P/E (TTM)
15.9
P/S (TTM)
2.17
P/FCF (TTM)
7.81
Rev YoY
+3.8%
EPS YoY
-56.1%
Gross Margin
+47.7%
Op Margin
+23.8%
Net Debt
$1.69B
Current Ratio
2.78
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data