B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IRDM
IridiumFNasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Iridium still has credible operating hooks: commercial IoT revenue grew 11% in the fourth quarter of 2025, commercial IoT subscribers rose 6%, and the new 9604 platform creates a concrete 2026 product milestone that could extend specialized connectivity demand [#PR-2026-02-12] [#PR-2026-02-24].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
April 23, 2026 results could expose softer subscriber or service-revenue trends than the current 2026 framework implies.
Momentum
63
Value
49
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -19.1
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment22 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • April 23, 2026 results could expose softer subscriber or service-revenue trends than the current 2026 framework implies.
- • Hosted payload timing, government mix shifts, or broader satellite-competition narratives could pressure sentiment even if core operations remain stable.
- • The company itself framed 2026 as only flat to 2% service-revenue growth, with OEBITDA stepping down versus 2025 because incentive compensation shifts to cash; that is a limited-growth setup for a stock already trading above the packet's summarized analyst median target.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-23
First-quarter 2026 results on April 23
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.1
Δ21d
-23.5
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
22
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+4.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 63.0 / Value 48.9 / Sentiment 22.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.3B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
105.96M
P/E (TTM)
15.9
P/S (TTM)
2.17
P/FCF (TTM)
7.81
Rev YoY
+3.8%
EPS YoY
-56.1%
Gross Margin
+47.7%
Op Margin
+23.8%
Net Debt
$1.69B
Current Ratio
2.78
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data