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Earnings documents stored for ING.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-28Quarterra and PGIM Celebrate Groundbreaking at Alexandria Crossing Apartments
PR Newswire
Quarterra and PGIM Celebrate Groundbreaking at Alexandria Crossing Apartments
Mid-rise apartment development to offer prime regional connectivity ALEXANDRIA, Va., May 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Quarterra, an industry-leading multifamily development and investment management firm, and PGIM, the global investment management business of Prudential Financial, Inc. and the second-largest real estate investment manager in the world, celebrated the commencement of construction on Alexandria Crossing at their groundbreaking ceremony earlier this month. Alongside the project's lead lender, ING Capital LLC, Quarterra and PGIM are proud to bring the new luxury apartment community to the heart of Alexandria, offering a premier residential destination that blends modern living with unparalleled connectivity. Alexandria Crossing is designed as a sophisticated mid-rise community, comprised of seven stories and featuring 385 apartment homes. The development will offer a diverse range of floor plans, from efficient studios to spacious three-bedroom residences, with units ranging from 398 to 1,378 square feet. Committed to environmental responsibility, the community is engineered to meet the National Green Building Standard (NGBS) Gold Certification for environmental sustainability. The broader master development also includes a significant residential expansion by Lennar, one of the nation's leading homebuilders, featuring 44 "two-over-two" for-sale townhomes — architecturally styled as four-level townhouses but internally split into two separate, multi-level residences — and 33 for-sale traditional townhomes. "Alexandria Crossing represents our commitment to creating high-quality, sustainable housing that meets the needs of modern urban dwellers," said Drew Dunn, Senior Development Manager with Quarterra. "With its unmatched location and regional accessibility, combined with a curated amenities package, we are creating a community that is as convenient as it is comfortable." Located at 6239 Shields Avenue, Alexandria Crossing will offer residents prime connectivity to regional attractions, recreation, employers and necessities. The community fronts along US Route 1, providing immediate access to major thoroughfares including I-495, I-395 and the GW Memorial Parkway. The community site is just 0.8 miles from the Huntington Metro Station (Yellow Line) and adjacent to a future Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) stop. The transit access creates easy commutes to major...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-30ING Groep Q1 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Reiterates 2026 Revenue Guidance
MT Newswires
ING Groep Q1 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Reiterates 2026 Revenue Guidance
ING Groep (ING) reported Q1 earnings Thursday of 0.54 euros ($0.63) per share, up from 0.47 euros a
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-30ING Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat
ING Group Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
ING delivered a “very strong” start to 2026 with broad commercial momentum — mobile primary customers rose by 125,000, loan growth ran at an annualized >8% (retail 9.4%), fee income was up 13% YoY and ROTE reached 13.6% — and now expects full‑year commercial NII of EUR 16.5–16.7 billion. Ongoing capital generation funded shareholder returns, including a new EUR 1 billion buyback after completing a EUR 1.1 billion program, while ING keeps CET1 around its 13% target (the Dutch mortgage‑floor expiry on Dec 1, 2026 would reduce RWA by ~EUR 4 billion, ~15 bps CET1). Volatility hit “all other income” (full‑year guidance EUR 2.5–2.7 billion), and the bank recorded total risk costs of EUR 346 million including a EUR 94 million prudent overlay to cover energy and geopolitical risks. Interested in ING Group, N.V.? Here are five stocks we like better. ING Group (NYSE:ING) reported what management described as a “very strong” start to 2026, pointing to continued commercial momentum across retail and wholesale banking, higher fee income, and ongoing capital generation that supported another share repurchase program. Chief Executive Officer Steven van Rijswijk said the first quarter unfolded against “geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty,” but argued the results again demonstrated the resilience of ING’s business and clients. He said ING maintained strong momentum coming out of 2025, “more than absorbing the seasonal effects” of the first quarter. → Palantir Is Down 30%: Noise? Or a Signal to Accumulate? Van Rijswijk highlighted several operating metrics, including: Mobile primary customers rising by 125,000 in the quarter, keeping the bank on track for its target of adding 1 million mobile primary customers in 2026. Loan growth at an annualized pace of more than 8%, including 9.4% growth in retail banking during the quarter. Wholesale Banking loan growth of EUR 5.6 billion while keeping risk-weighted assets “broadly stable.” Fee income up 13% year-over-year. Return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 13.6% for the quarter. He also said sustainable volume mobilized increased 11% year-over-year. → Corning Beats Q1 Estimates but Drops 9% on Guidance Miss Van Rijswijk attributed commercial growth primarily to customer experience, citing a “leading Net Promoter Score in most of our retail markets,” and said the bank is seeing deeper relationships as more customers choose ING as...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-30ING: Q1 Earnings Snapshot
Associated Press
ING: Q1 Earnings Snapshot
AMSTERDAM (AP) — AMSTERDAM (AP) — ING Groep NV (ING) on Thursday reported net income of $1.82 billion in its first quarter. The bank, based in Amsterdam, said it had earnings of 63 cents per share. The financial services provider posted revenue of $6.81 billion in the period. Its revenue net of interest expense was $6.81 billion, which did not meet Street forecasts. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on ING at https://www.zacks.com/ap/ING
TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-04-30FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 125 paragraphs
FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
This is Laura, welcoming you to ING's 1Q 2026 conference call. Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Groep, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements, such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectation for our future financial performance, and any statement not involving a historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F, filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, and our earnings press release, as posted on our website today. Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
Good morning, Steven. Over to you.
Thank you very much, Laura. Good morning and welcome to our results call for the first quarter of 2026. I hope that you're all doing well, and thank you for joining us today. Sitting next to me is our new CFO, Ida Lerner. Ida joined us on the 1st of April, and we're very happy to have her on board. Welcome, Ida. Next to Ida, I'm also joined today by our Head of Risk, Andrea Cesaroni, and we have started the year strongly. The first quarter of 2026 unfolded against the backdrop of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, our performance demonstrates once again the resilience of our business and of our clients. We have continued to deliver strong and diversified growth, and we're well on track to achieve our full-year financial outlook.
In today's presentation, I will talk about the resilience of our growth strategy and how the consistent execution thereof is delivering increasing value. After that, Ida will walk you through the quarterly financials. At the end of the call, we will be happy to take your questions. With that, we now start on Slide 2. This slide highlights our continued commercial momentum going into 2026, with solid growth across all key areas. As you will remember, we had ended 2025 with very strong volumes, including some seasonal inflows. We have managed to maintain the strong positive momentum also across the first quarter, more than absorbing the seasonal effects and continuing to push volumes even further up. Mobile primary customer growth, for instance, is seasonally lower in the first quarter.
We managed to grow by another 125,000, and we continue to be on track to achieve our 1 million growth target also in 2026. Loan growth was again strong at an annualized pace of more than 8%. In retail banking, we've grown by 9.4% in the first quarter. Besides continued momentum in mortgages, we also saw strong growth in business banking, where we continue to expand the franchise. In Wholesale Banking, we grew the loan book by EUR 5.6 billion while keeping its risk-weighted assets broadly stable. We also saw solid inflow in deposits at an annualized rate of 4% despite seasonal outflows from current accounts in the first quarter and despite conversion into investment products.
Fee income rose by 13% year-on-year, supported by our growing customer base, by higher customer trading volumes, and by strong deal flow in Wholesale Banking. All of this translated into a return on tangible equity of 13.6% for the quarter. Finally, our sustainable volume mobilized has increased by 11% year-on-year as we continue to support our clients in their sustainable transitions. Let's move on to the next slide to take a closer look at the fundamentals of our continued commercial growth. Slide 3 summarizes how the resilience of our business supports our growth strategy also in a more challenging environment. Let me start by saying that the main driver of ING's commercial growth is the superior experience that we provide to our customers.
With a leading Net Promoter Score in most of our retail markets, we continue to attract new customers, we see even stronger growth in the conversion into mobile primary relationships as more customers choose ING as their primary bank. This deepening of the relationship with our customers is furthermore supported by the broadening of our product offering. Here we see strong momentum across all of our businesses, helping to further diversify our revenues across a growing range of capabilities. We've recently launched business banking in Italy, and in the Netherlands, we are rolling out an insurance broker model to further integrate insurance capabilities into our mobile app. We are achieving most of our lending growth in mortgages, and as the leading European mortgage bank, we benefit from continued strong market fundamentals.
The strength of our largest mortgage markets is supported by constant low unemployment rates and a resilient market outlook. Our Wholesale Bank is well-positioned to support Europe's strategic resilience with deep expertise in key focus areas, including in infrastructure and TMT. As a top 3 MLA and bookrunner in Europe, and with our strong DCM franchise, our Wholesale Bank is ready to support the investment initiatives that are needed to strengthen Europe's position in a global context. With that, we move to Slide 4. On this slide, you can see how the consistent execution of our strategy is driving value, supported by rising profitability and by our consistent deployment of share buyback programs. Our EPS has improved by 11% on a 12-month rolling basis.
With EPS and the return on tangible equity clearly on a rising path, we have set firm direction towards our profitability targets by 2027. We see a wide range of strong catalysts that will support further value creation. First of all, we continue to grow our mobile primary customer base by 1 million per year. This means that we're not just growing the number of accounts, this is growth from customers who actually use ING as their primary bank. This is the core engine of our growth strategy. This is where growth, income diversification, and superior cost to serve all come together. In addition, as number two, we continue to expand our business and develop new business streams. We are further rolling out our successful business banking franchise into several countries.
We're building our private banking and wealth management as a third retail banking pillar in our existing markets. We're continuously developing new insurance propositions to make insurance a relevant revenue stream. In wholesale banking, we're making strong progress to further diversify our capabilities in capital-light revenues. Thirdly, when it comes to growth becomes powerful only when it is truly scalable. Our continued focus on operational excellence is increasingly enabling us to achieve growth in a truly scalable way. Combined with our capabilities to scale AI solutions quickly, we see a powerful improvement in growing commercial volume at a much faster pace than our cost base. Finally, number four, we continue to improve our already strong level of capital efficiency, supported by continued capital velocity measures, both in wholesale banking and in retail banking.
All of this is not a journey that we will start tomorrow or in the years to come, but one that is already well underway, and one where we see its strong results already clearly today. Let's zoom in for a minute on that topic of scalability. Moving to Slide 5. On Slide 5, we demonstrate how we're increasingly enabling scalable growth. First, I want to touch upon what drives our ability to achieve scalable growth. ING has a long track record of digitalization, and as a result, the vast majority of our key customer journeys are already fully straight-through without any human intervention. This is a key ingredient, not only for superior customer experience, but also for achieving true cost efficiency. In addition to a high level of digitalization, we also have built strong foundational capabilities that enable scalability.
For example, we have our global hubs network, and that houses 27% of our tech employees and 40% of our operations workforce. A fully integrated and scalable network organization supports improved productivity and operational resilience. Also our scalable tech platform, which includes core infrastructure components such as our global private cloud and our global technology platform that provides reusable shared services for product development. When you add these two ingredients together, digitalization and a scalable tech and operations organization, then you have a very strong starting point to deploy AI solutions. That is why we have been able to already roll out many AI solutions and scale quickly. More than 90% of our AI pilots have successfully been moved into production. More than 75% of our customer chats are fully resolved by AI without human support.
More than 7 million customers have already received hyper-personalized marketing campaigns. We have agentic mortgages live in production in the Netherlands and soon rolling out to other countries. We are on the verge of globally rolling out conversational banking for our retail customers, which is a personal assistant with agentic experience. When you then look back over cost performance over the past 12 months and in comparison to our commercial growth, there you then see the powerful proof of our ability to achieve scalable growth. Over the past 12 months, we have grown our mobile primary customer base by almost 7%, our customer balances by more than 5%, our volumes in investment products by more than 15%, and fee income even by 15.6%.
Our FTEs, however, decreased by 0.6%, while our cost growth was limited to 2%. With our commercial growth significantly outpacing incremental costs, we are delivering clear scalable growth, supporting meaningful improvements of our efficiency ratios in the years to come. Now let's move to Slide 6. On Slide 6, we show how the consistent execution of our growth strategy is resulting in strong capital generation. Over the past 12 months, we have delivered EUR 6.4 billion in net profit, contributing almost 2 percentage points of our CET1 ratio. Of that EUR 6.4 billion, 50% has been reserved for our regular dividend distributions. Around 15% of the capital we generated has been used to fund profitable growth across our markets. Here we see a clear demonstration of capital efficiency.
We have generated EUR 65 billion of profitable lending growth over the past 12 months while consuming only EUR 1 billion of capital. Finally, the generated capital was not needed for our organic growth, we have returned to shareholders with a total amount of EUR 4.4 billion of additional distributions over the past 12 months, largely in the form of share buybacks. Let's move to Slide 7, where I will show how these distributions have resulted in continued attractive shareholder return. In line with our distribution policy, page seven, we have consistently paid cash dividends, and we have been executing significant share buyback programs for several years. Together this results in consistent and attractive total distributions per share.
The previously announced share buyback of EUR 1.1 billion has been completed this week, and today we have already started with another EUR 1 billion share buyback program, which will run for the next six months. When we look ahead, we remain fully committed to strong capital discipline to deliver strong shareholder results. We maintain our semi-annual rhythm of assessing the potential for additional distributions, and we will update you again in six months' time. Now, before handing over to Ida, let me first take you to Slide 9. On Slide 9, we confirm our financial outlook for 2026 and 2027. We are well on track to achieve our upgraded outlook, which we communicated in the previous quarter with our full year results. We continue to add 1 million mobile primary customers per year. We see continued momentum in building out our fee income.
We will deliver positive operating jaws in the years to come, and we are delivering on a broad range of catalysts that will continue to support the upward path of our ROTE in the years to come as well. Now let me hand over to Ida, who will walk you through our first quarter's results in more detail, starting from Slide 11.
Thank you, Steven. It is my pleasure to present the results of what has been a very strong first quarter of 2026. On Slide 11, we can see that commercial NII has continued its upward trend since the second half of 2025. This is supported by continued volume growth on both sides of the balance sheets by disciplined commercial pricing and by the hedging tailwind on our replicated customer deposits. Fee income also continued its upward trend, driven by further customer growth and by strong performance, particularly in investment products and in wholesale banking. All other income, on the other hand, was affected by the heightened market volatility towards the end of the quarter. This has resulted in some IFRS asymmetrical effects, of which the majority should come back over time, given lower interest rate volatility ahead.
Overall, the strong customer activity and volume growth noted in the first quarter outweighed the lower all other income and led to an uptick in total income of 3% compared to the same quarter last year. Let's now move to Slide 12, where we will show the development of our customer balances. As you can see, we delivered another quarter of strong commercial growth across both retail banking and wholesale banking. Net core lending increased by EUR 15 billion. Retail banking contributed EUR 9.4 billion, driven by continued mortgage growth with strong production in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Australia. This was coupled with a particularly strong performance in business banking, mainly in Netherlands and Poland. Wholesale banking also delivered strong growth of EUR 5.6 billion while keeping risk-weighted assets broadly stable.
Within this growth of EUR 5.6 billion, we see a strong net inflow of EUR 7.8 billion in lending, which was partly offset by the repayment of a short-term working capital solution facility. On the liability side, core deposits increased by EUR 7.2 billion. Retail banking contributed EUR 4.3 billion of growth, with strong inflows into savings and term deposits, most notably in Poland, Belgium, and the Netherlands. This more than offset the seasonal outflow from current accounts and the conversion into investment products. Wholesale banking added EUR 2.9 billion of customer deposit as it continues to build out its capital light income capabilities. On to Slide 13. On this slide, we zoom in on commercial NII. Commercial NII grew by EUR 132 million quarter-on-quarter and was 7% higher than last year.
Lending NII was up EUR 41 million in the first quarter, despite a lower day count driven by sustained volume growth at stable margins. Liability NII increased by EUR 91 million quarter-on-quarter, reflecting both volume growth and a 5 basis points increase in the liability margin. This higher liability margin is a reflection of the prolonged hedging tailwind on our replicated deposits while maintaining disciplined commercial pricing across the backbone of our deposits. What it also reflects is the absence of larger savings campaigns during the first quarter, meaning that the level of acquisition costs was relatively low this quarter and will likely normalize again in the coming quarters.
Let me be clear that we should not expect the 5 basis points increase of the liability margin every quarter ahead. Looking ahead, on the back of a very strong first quarter, and especially the higher than expected volume growth, we can expect a slightly higher level of commercial NII than previously guided. We now expect commercial NII for the full year to be between EUR 16.5 billion and EUR 16.7 billion. Turning to Slide 14. Fee income growth remained strong, increasing 13% year-on-year, and was also up on the prior quarter. What is especially encouraging to see is that this strong performance of fee income stems from all products and all markets, supporting the diversification of income sources for the bank. In retail banking, fee income grew by 13% year-on-year.
This was mainly driven by structural factors, such as continued customer growth and improved cross-selling. investment products in particular performed very well. A record quarter even benefiting from 8% growth in customers with an investment account and 15% growth in asset under management and administration, of which roughly half comes from net inflows. While also benefiting from 13% more trades, which besides a higher customer base, was supported by the increased market volatility towards the end of the quarter. In wholesale banking, fee income grew by 11% year-on-year, again demonstrating its strong progress on further income diversification. Let's turn to the next slide. On Slide 15, we show the development of all other income. Here we see that the heightened market volatility towards the end of the quarter had a negative effect on hedge ineffectiveness, as well as our activities within financial markets.
It is worth remembering, however, that the P&L impact from the hedge ineffectiveness is not economic in nature. It is account driven and should reverse over time. In financial markets, we continued to support our clients through the volatile market conditions. All other income was impacted by the sharp increase in interest rates. We expect all other income for the full year to be slightly lower than our normal run rate, ending somewhere between EUR 2.5 billion and EUR 2.7 billion. Next, Slide 16. Expenses, excluding regulatory costs and incidental items, showed only a moderate increase year-over-year of 1.1%, clearly demonstrating our disciplined approach to cost management and our scalable growth capabilities. The impact from wage inflation was largely offset by savings from prior restructurings while allowing for ongoing investments to support business growth.
Quarter-on-quarter, expenses were down slightly, mainly driven by seasonally lower customer acquisition costs in the first quarter. Incidental items of EUR 13 million for the quarter included EUR 25 million of restructuring provisions for the full-time employee reduction in wholesale banking and in retail banking Belgium. Once fully implemented, these measures are expected to lead to approximately EUR 20 million in annualized cost savings. Let's move to risk costs on Slide 17. Total risk costs were EUR 346 million in the quarter, equivalent to 19 basis points of average customer lending, which is slightly below our through the cycle average, reflecting the quality and the strength of our loan book. Within this quarter's risk cost, we have included a prudent overlay to address the possible impact of higher energy prices and of the broader economic effects of the war in the Middle East.
This EUR 94 million addition to management overlays was, however, partly offset by a large repayment of a Stage 3 loan in Wholesale Banking. The Stage 3 ratio slightly improved to a low 1.5%. We remain confident in the strength and quality of our loan book. Finally, before handing it back to Steven, let me take you to Slide 18. On Slide 18, we show the development of our Core Equity Tier 1 ratio. Continued strong capital generation and overall solidity allowed us to announce and start a new EUR 1 billion share buyback program today while maintaining our Core Equity Tier 1 at our around 13% target level. In terms of risk-weighted assets for the quarter, these increased by EUR 3.6 billion. Besides a EUR 0.9 billion FX impact, this mainly reflected continued business growth.
Within wholesale banking, the risk-weighted assets remained broadly stable despite strong lending growth, reflecting the continued capital velocity measures that have been taken within Wholesale Banking. What is new this quarter is a change in our dividend reserving approach to ensure compliance with EBA guidelines. As of this quarter, our additional distributions will mainly be financed through upfront reservings. The implementation of this new reserving approach had a one-off effect this quarter of -23 basis points. In total, the additional distribution has an impact of roughly 29 basis points on our Core Equity Tier 1. This is merely a change in reserving approach. Our distribution policy remains unchanged. With that, let me hand it back to Steven to wrap up today's presentation.
Very good. Thank you, Ida. Before we move to Q&A, let me recap the key takeaways from today's presentation. The resilience of our business supports the continued execution of our growth strategy also amidst geopolitical uncertainty. The consistent execution of that growth strategy is clearly driving value with strong momentum in our profitability metrics. We have a wide range of catalysts to further increase value. Our commercial growth is significantly outpacing the growth in expenses, reflecting our strong foundational capabilities to achieve scalable growth. As a result, we see continued strong capital generation, which enabled us to start a new EUR 1 billion share buyback program today. Finally, we are well on track to deliver on our full year financial outlook. With that, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. Operator, back to you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. In the interest of time, we kindly ask each analyst to limit yourself to two questions only. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Benoît Pétrarque of Kepler Cheuvreux. The line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Welcome, Ida, and yeah, looking forward to talk to you in the coming days. Yeah, two questions on my side. The first one will be on the liability margin, the 104. Clearly we should not replicate the +5 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Objectively looking into the second quarter, yeah, it looks like there's further support from the short end of the curve. I wanted to confirm that with you if you see that as well. Could you please also talk about the competitive environment on the deposit side, so far in the months of April?
Well, it seems to be still okay. Just wanted to get a bit of a feeling about our deposits pricing behave in your main markets so far in the second quarter. Then the second question, yeah, sorry, I will just talk about a bit more like the strategy on the insurance because it's interesting what you've done, I think, what you announced two weeks ago. You would be mandated broker in the Netherlands for NN and Allianz. What is your strategy now on the insurance? Seems that things will probably speed up in terms of growth there. Just wanted to understand your long-term plan regarding insurance.
Clearly with this move into mandated broker, I think you are stepping up in the value chain of insurance, which could probably accelerate the growth there. The long-term picture on insurance, please. Thank you very much.
Yeah. Thanks, Benoit, and for your questions, and I'll take the question on insurance, and Ida will talk about the liability margin. Look, in insurance, it's a little bit the same as we saw on investment products, so I think a couple of years ago we started to talk again to our insurance partners to look at, okay, what is the best proposition for which market, for which customer segments, and how does each market develop itself? It comes a bit back to what I said previously, which is we have been very dependent on interest income, whether it was deposits or lending, and there is nothing wrong with these two products, but in the end, we want to build up a broader client relationship when growing our primary relationships across the board.
In that regard, we have also started to do that with insurance. I think a few quarters ago we started to report on that separately. Every market works a bit differently, huh? In some markets, uh, we have, uh, one partner. In this market, we work more with a platform model whereby insurance partners can subscribe to certain products. Increasingly we're also moving up the value chain. In some of the markets, the insurance fees are still very low, huh, like I said in the past about investment business, that I said the asset under management business compared to other banks that are smaller than us is still relatively benign. That also goes for insurance. In my view, we have just nearly started. It is getting better.
We've seen that the growth was, you know, I believe 14%, compared to a year ago. This is good, but we're still rolling out in more markets. We're hiring people and specialists, and we are maturing in also the way that we provide insurance, and that could indeed also be taking over some more services. We currently don't think about taking over underwriting services, but we really tailor it in each market where we're at, and there's quite a bit of upside in, from where we currently are.
Thank you for your question on liability margin as well as on competition. I think I'll start with the competition on deposits. I think it's important to say that we see strong but rational competition, both on deposits, but also on lending in all our main markets. When looking particularly at the first quarter, that's seasonally a lower quarter when it comes to deposits. If you compare it year-over-year, you need to also keep in mind that in the first quarter last year, we did a larger campaign in Germany, which meant that we have a stronger inflow of deposits.
We still see that we have an attractive offering towards our customers and we continue balance profitability above growth, around growth, and ensure that we have a sustainable development also on deposits in line with what we've guided on in terms of an average growth of 5% where we think it would be natural to see a deposit growth. On the liability margin, it's good that you point out that we should not expect a 5 basis points increase on the liability margin every quarter. What I think is important to say is that we expect to be in the mid-range of between 100 and 110 basis points this year. Also driven by a hedging tailwind which comes in gradually but not exactly linear.
Particularly a reflection of the lower than usual campaign related deposits cost in the first quarter. That's also something that needs to be taken into account when looking at the liability margin ahead.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Two questions. One, the first one I see you've introduced on Slide 27, that bullet point on the right-hand side to say the range of 100-110 could be temporarily exceeded. I just wanted to ask more conceptually how you think about that opportunity. On the one hand, you could pay up to sort of source additional deposits, essentially sacrificing margin for volume, and hoping that you find the demand on the lending side to put that additional liquidity to work, given you typically run about 100% LDR. Obviously that ties up more capital and it brings in a bit more credit risk. On the other hand, you could allow volumes to react to your determined pass-through rates and just ride the tide of higher rates and underlying volume growth in your markets.
You wouldn't grow deposits by as much, but it's a higher ROE and a lower credit risk strategy. I guess from the outside in, that's a pretty easy decision to make, but I'd just be interested to see and hear how you see the balance between those two strategies. Second, of this EUR 600 million increase in replicating income in 2026, again on Slide 27, I know that's a gross number, but how much is included in the new commercial NII guidance? The haircut you're taking in deciding how much of that EUR 600 million to embed in the new guide, is that because you're waiting to see where rates really settle this year? Obviously, there's a huge amount of volatility.
Because you actually see more price competition coming through onto deposits and there being a bigger difference between the gross and the net number. Thank you.
All right. The second question I read as, or I heard as that we gave commercial NII guidance of, EUR +200 million and how much is for more liabilities. Is that my right understanding, Chris?
Effectively, your replicating income guidance for 2026 has gone up by EUR 600 million. Your commercial NII guidance has gone up by EUR 200 million. The replicating income number though is gross, so it could be high deposit cost, or it could just be that you're using the latest forward curve on that replicating income slide.
Right.
You don't want to put the latest forward curve into your commercial NII guide.
Yeah. Basically, I'll take the second question and Ida takes the first question. I think on the EUR 200 million, that is basically all the increase is all liability income. I think that if you look at our the liability income that's growing both on the volume and of course on the margin that we make and on the average duration and therefore the curves that we see. Now clearly, we have been moving up our deposits with EUR 7 billion. That is in line with what we typically would do for the year. Sometimes we have campaigns and it goes a bit quicker, but also comes at lower margin.
We didn't do campaigns, and if you strip out the campaigns, we are still at what we typically do in a quarter. Of course, the margin is supported by a higher short-term interest rate that helps our current accounts. Of course, we're also helped in this case by the higher forward curve. It also will help savings margins, in the end, but what we see in the past from competition, that always trends back to a certain level. Based on what we currently have seen and have done to date, this is the increase of liability income we expect on commercial NII for 2026. Has nothing to do with lending or lending margins.
It's just a matter of the volumes that we expect at higher margins at a better replication rate.
Thank you. I think it's important to say that the Slide 27, which I think you're referring to, is a visualization of what we would see bearing in mind a specific forward curve. That's also the forward curve that we saw in March. That has been quite volatile, as you know, during the quarter. Some of the benefit as Steven van Rijswijk also alluded to, some of the benefit from higher short-term rates is from current account volumes, and therefore structurally accretive to NII. However, most of the benefit for us comes from the savings volumes, which is more sensitive to competition and historically has shown that the margins are fairly stable over time and is expected to also come down.
I would link that to the range of 100 and 110 basis points in terms of the long-term perspective. Taking purely the forward curve from March into account, you would say that yes, we would potentially be higher than 100 and 110, but we also know that there is a fierce competition. There is also a very rational behavior in the bank, focusing on profitability above growth over time. When you'd also asked about the composition in terms of lend, will we prioritize lending over deposits. I think we've said that our long-term goal is to grow approximately equal by 5% on both sides of the balance sheet.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Giulia Aurora of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one, the commercial momentum was very strong in Q1. Steven, you called out momentum in mortgages, also growth in business banking. How is this evolving now considering the change in the macro backdrop? Are you still seeing good demand for loans, or has that slowed down? First question. Second question, on cost of risk, the EUR 94 million overlay, what oil price do you assume there? Could we see more coming in Q2 considering how things are evolving literally as we speak? Thank you.
All right, Giulia. I. Thanks for your question. I take the question on commercial momentum, and Andrea will take the question on the EUR 94 million overlay. On the commercial momentum, look, there's many elements that we anticipate to continue and there are some elements where we could expect and could see an impact. If you look at the lending and the deposit space, I think a large part of our loans is in mortgages, and there the main drivers are unemployment rates and housing shortages, and that hasn't really changed.
We've seen it also in previous cycles, maybe except when rates increased very, very quickly as we've seen in the course of 2022 and 2023, then there was a little bit, a bump in the housing demand. Other than that, we have actually seen a continued rise in demand for mortgages given the fact that there is housing shortage and there's low unemployment rates. That's an important element to it. When we look at fees, many of our fee growth is alpha-driven. That's just having more customers doing more with us and driving more impact and relevance in the markets where we are.
I just talked also to the question to Benoit Petrarque about, okay, rolling out new insurance propositions, rolling out broader investment propositions, having deeper payment capabilities in various markets, deepening our financial markets capabilities in terms of pricing for certain products. It's just enabling ourselves because we have these customers to do more with them, and that I don't see change either. I think the biggest impact that we could potentially see, but it's too early to call, is that when we look at the lending demand in wholesale banking, and there we've seen in the second half of last year quite a pent-up demand after the pipelines were full in the first half but didn't really convert based on the uncertainty given Liberation Day.
That converts in the second half, and that we see continue in the first quarter. With all the uncertainty going on, that could be more muted in the quarters to come, but let's see what happens. That's what I could see at this point in time. Andrea, on the overlay.
Yeah. Okay. The primary purpose of the overlay which we build was indeed to adjust the quarter-end macroeconomic scenarios which feed into our credit risk estimates to reflect the potential deterioration linked to the ongoing escalation in the Middle East. From the coming quarter, consider a wider set of assumptions and macroeconomic variables than the pure oil price. From the coming quarter, we expect to revert to the normal process whereby economic macroeconomic consensus is feeding naturally into our loss provisioning process. Therefore, this overlay should diminish while the net impact on the loan loss provisions will be actually depending on how the higher oil price will affect the macroeconomic outlook.
In a nutshell, let's say this is the setup. It's too hard to come to a conclusion about the potential impact of the current oil price volatility on our loan operations.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Delphine Lee of JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one is, sorry, just to come back on the liability margins and your comment about, you know, ceding temporarily and out to years. Just to understand, when you say temporarily, just to understand, like, you do think that there will be a significant change in competition, which you're saying at the moment is rational, but the new players and newcomers could really trigger potential change. Do you think this would be sudden? Or, you know, just to kind of like understand sort of like, you know, how quickly that could bring down liability margin back into the, you know, long-term range of 100-110 basis points. Second question is on capital.
Just want to get your thoughts around, like, the change on the mortgage floor, in terms of the impact that you have on your CET1 ratio and your distribution policy? You want to run around 13%, so, you know, seeing a bit of a positive impact. Would that change how much you distribute in terms of, you know, buybacks? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you very much. I'll take the question on capital, and Ida will take the question on the liability margins. When we look at the mortgage floor, what happened is that it was recently announced also that by the DNB, that they took a decision, and as a result of which, the Dutch mortgage floor expires as per the first of December of 2026. That decision will lead to a EUR 4 billion lower risk-rated assets. That's about 15 basis points of our CET1 ratio. We've previously said, we are looking at a target of around 13%. We use that, we use our capital for growth and for distribution and normal distribution.
If there is any structural amount over that around 13% that we have in capital, then we'll pay it back to shareholders. We'll treat this, we'll treat it any, in the same way as we normally do.
Thank you for the question on liability margin. First, I think it's important to look at the composition of our portfolio as well, and also link it back to what we saw in 2023. In 2023, we saw a rapid increase in terms of margins, which then came down gradually over time as there is quite strong competition. I think it's also important then to look at when I link it to our portfolio in terms of the percentage-wise split between savings accounts and current accounts. That also means that, as I mentioned before, that we expect the savings margins or margins on savings accounts to come back to a long-term level that we have seen before.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Ben Goy of DB. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Two questions, please. First on cost, it seems like you are on good cost control and you are a bit ahead of your full year guidance. Maybe you can comment a bit more on that, whether it was FX and how the benefits of the operations restructuring should help in the rest of the year. On deposit campaigns, obviously you didn't do a big campaign. Should we generally expect bigger campaigns as you did in the past, or should it be more below the radar, potentially cheaper microcampaigning type campaigns? Thank you.
I know. All right. On both of the questions, what we have been able to do is that with the contained cost discipline, but also scalability that I talked about in the presentation, we were able to largely offset the wage inflation, and therefore we also allow ourselves to make investments. In the end, what we want to do is to be able to further grow and diversify ourselves. The more we're able to have efficiencies coming from our scalability, both from digitalization and our scalable tech and ops, that we can then reuse to get better customer experience by making investments into broaden our products as we talked about.
That will then support the long-term value and the drive of our ROE. In that sense, we continue to confirm also the outlook that we have for 2026 and 2027. We, we do see, and that's what I mentioned on page five of the presentation, continued improvements on that front, on the front of scalability, and it gives opportunity to play with the levers of investments versus costs, which is very helpful. The outlook remains the same at this point in time. When we talk about campaigns, yeah, it's, it's mixing, it's, it's mixing and matching. In the end, we want to grow our customer base. In the meantime, we want to, in the long term, balance loans with deposits.
We've seen for a number of quarters that deposits were growing faster. Now we've seen a couple of quarters where loans are growing faster. We want to do that in a balanced way. In the end, our purpose is to get more primary relationships in because these people, these clients will do multiples in terms of and products, but also in profitability, and in stickiness with us. Therefore, we will tailor it as to how we can grow and develop our customer base while keeping an eye on our balance sheet. That's a mixing and matching of both more micro campaigns and potentially more above-the-line campaigns that we've seen in previous years.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Tarik El Mejjad of Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome from myself as well, Ida. Looking forward to talk more in future. I just want to follow up first on volumes. I understand the uncertainty element that could reverse if things get better in Iran and the conflict. What about if we have a more sustained higher energy prices, lower consumption and maybe higher inflation on your wholesale lending? If we see something more structural rather than the reversal uncertainty, how, where do, which areas you see and what could be impact on your lending? The second question is on the SRTs that you are planning to do for the rest of the year, I think 15, 20 basis points push of capital.
How is discussions with the ECB and how do you see the market evolving in this current uncertainty? Is that something you still see as, you know, on track in terms of delivery and pricing and also on what kind of loans you put there? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Tarik, for your questions. I'll take the question on volumes, and Ida will take the question on SRTs. I think on volumes, look in retail, like I said, we have seen over the past six, seven years different elements that impacted the macroeconomic volatility. Again, most of our retail lending and predominantly mortgages is much more linked to unemployment rates and shortage of housing and therefore how sad the war is, however sad the war is, that is not directly impacting those macroeconomic indicators. Therefore we expect a continuation of demands for mortgages and depending on the pricing and we will therefore further grow that book.
When it comes to wholesale banking, there we saw in the first quarter if you annualize, sorry, if you now annualize the growth rate that we saw in the first quarter on lending, in total it was 8%. That is quite a bit higher than the 5% that 4%, 5% we saw previously over the years. Sectors in wholesale banking that could be affected are sectors that are, one, linked to the oil price, i.e., that have the oil price and energy price as a quite an input factor on the cost base. You could think about the chemical sector or fertilizers or construction or transport and logistics. Those are sectors that are typically impacted.
The question for those companies is, are they able to pass on those energy prices? The second element that you could see is that Asia, which is even more dependent, I would say, on the Middle East, Strait of Hormuz in terms of getting their oil, if that is impacting their production levels and therefore it would also impact the delivery of supply chains to a number of other companies in the world, including the U.S. and Europe. Those would be the main macroeconomic impacts.
So far, and we are watching that closely, clearly a number of the companies that we talk to are much more flexible than they were a number of years ago because they have been dealing with the war in Ukraine and Corona, so they are more used to changing in terms of uncertainty. So far, we don't see so much in our book. You saw the risk costs that are below the true cycle average, and it also includes an overlay. The risk costs are still quite benign. That's just a matter of waiting and looking and helping our customers. It's too close to see what is really happening. We just need to stay close to the clients, especially in the sectors that I just outlined.
On SRTs. SRTs are an important tool in our toolbox to ensure capital efficiency and also optimize our capital position. As you know, in November last year, we announced a successful completion of our first two SRTs in Wholesale Banking, which provided a Core Equity Tier 1 relief of 12 basis points. We aim to continue using SRTs across wholesale as well as Retail Banking portfolios in the coming years. We've previously also said that we expect to do additional capital reliefs in 2026 of between 15-20 basis points, and that still remains the plan. We have a very good and constructive dialogue with ECB. I don't see any negative trends there at all or hesitations from their side.
It is also important to say we are, kind of in the early phase of doing SRTs and therefore, are not an outlier in any way.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Shrey Srivastava of Citi. Your line is open. Shrey, go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much for taking my question. Apologies if it's been touched on already. I just joined. If you look at your 2026 commercial NII guide, it's been uplifted by about EUR 200 million, if you take the midpoints. If you compare that against the gross replicating income uplift on Slide 27, it's about EUR 600 million. Therefore you're guiding to an implied faster of close to 70% in 2026, if I'm not mistaken. Can you just explain what's driving that, what key markets and what opportunities you see? Thank you.
Okay. Ida.
Hi, Shrey. Nice to speaking to you again. As you rightly say that we saw a strong momentum on the commercial NII, which much better than expected and what we had guided for before. I think there are mainly four factors impacting this. We had a particularly strong lending growth, good deposit growth also in the first quarter, in spite of the seasonal outflows that you always see in the first quarter. We see the positive impacts of the hedging tailwinds, as you saw already from the second half of last year, really showing an impact also this quarter, and then lower deposits cost related to promotional campaigns.
When you look at Slide 27, it is important to say that that's more of a visualization of what we see in terms of replication development driven by a specific forward curve. What we're saying there is that, yes, you will see a positive impact given the interest rates environments coming into play. We're also then saying that we expect to be in the mid-range on liabilities margins in on between 100 and 110 basis points this year, and could potentially, given the interest rate path that we're seeing today, be slightly above 110 basis points in the two coming years.
We also expect, given the portfolio mix that we have, to see that trending down to more normalized level over time, as we also know that there is strong competition also on the, on the savings side, which we also saw in 2023.
Understood. Thank you very much, and good to see you again, Ida.
Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Matthew Clark of Mediobanca. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Good morning. More questions on liability margin, I'm afraid. I guess firstly, I was just hoping to understand a bit better whereabouts on the curve the movements were that benefited the liability margin this quarter. I mean, interest rates only really moved through March, so only for the last month of the quarter. Just trying to understand, you know, was it three months, six months, 12 months that really drove that 5 basis point benefit that we haven't seen in the past? Presumably, it would take too long for the longer end to be benefiting the margin that much. A related question is just in terms of the change in guidance from the around 100 basis points previously given.
I mean, if you're guiding for that at the end of January, start of February, to have a 4 or 5 basis point upward surprise in the first quarter implies a very high exit rate in terms of the liability margin for March in order to bring that average up. Any comment there? Is it right to think that the March liability margin would have been trending some way higher even than that 104 basis point average for the quarter? Thank you.
All right. Ida, it's gonna be a one-man show, a one-woman show.
Thank you. Thank you, Steven. Well, if I start with there's not a specific part of the curve. I think. When looking at the numbers and comparing it to what we talked about in the first quarter, you need to keep in mind that we also saw a gradual increase from the December curve. That needs to be taken into account. There is not one point in time that we're looking at here, but a gradual increase. In addition to that, you of course already saw the positive developments or the hedging tailwinds coming from the second half of last year moving into the first half, which is then also positive in terms of the outlook for the liability margins. The second part of it. Yes.
The second part of the question was. Sorry, I forgot that.
Could I just come back?
Yeah. Can you-
Any comments on.
Can you reiterate the second question, Matt? The changing guidance.
Sure. Thank you. There's two things. One, I just wanted to come back to the point that we were already seeing a benefit from the replicating tailwind last year, because I thought the guidance had been, while that was true at the long end, not to expect an overall improvement to the replicating tailwind to swing positive until later on in 2026. Was it an overall replicating benefit we were already seeing last year or was it only at the longer end? Then the other part of my original question was whether the exit rate for the liability margin in March was a lot higher than 104 basis points in order to bring the average for the full first quarter up to 104 basis points.
Sure. Ida will answer this.
Yes. I think what's important to keep in mind here is that we have lower campaign costs this quarter as well compared to previous quarters. Particularly if you also look at the first quarter last year, where we have larger costs related to campaigns. Then in addition to that, you're right in terms of your point of the shorter end.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Namita Samtani of Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one, do you think the cost income target of around 52% in 2027, just based on your revenue and cost targets is ambitious enough, given there are 23 other European banks targeting a lower cost income between 2026-2028? I'm just trying to understand the main pillars stopping ING from getting to a lower cost income than 52%. Secondly, just on what you would characterize growth markets in your Excel file, particularly in retail. I noticed the loan to deposit ratio over the past four years has come down by about 10 percentage points from around 60%. I was just wondering, why are you not able to grow lending as fast as deposits, and what's the strategy here?
I would expect deposit profitability in this subcategory to not be as good as it could be in other regions. Thanks.
Yes. Thank you, Namita. I think that if you look at cost income targets, again, the implied is 52%. I think what we're driving for is, on the one hand, operational efficiencies in our existing business. The main development for ING to drive value is to grow and diversify. As I said, we are a bank that makes about 80% of its revenue based on interest rates or linked to that, whereas on deposits or lending, which is good. That's also our ZIP code, i.e., where we came from. We also have the opportunity to do a lot more with our customers. You see that we grow our fees very well in all kinds of directions and the interaction we have with our clients in that regard.
Have more people who trade with us, more people who use the app, more people who do payments with us, more people who close insurance contracts through us as a distributor. More people who do financial market transactions with us. You see it's also rising in the league tables in in-depth capital markets, for example. At the same time, because we're also growing lending in various aspects, also that part of the P&L is growing, but the goal is to diversify. What we will largely save in terms of our operational efficiencies, we are investing in broadening and deepening our client relationships. That is helping in the end.
That's what we're drawing towards the ROE, that ROE we say will be 14% this year, more than 15% ROTE in 2027, we continue to drive and focus on ROTE growth. Implicitly, that will then also have an cost income decrease as a consequence. The main driver is consistent ROTE at scale. In terms of the loan to deposit ratio, I believe the line was breaking up a little bit, I believe you said a low loan to deposit ratio in Poland. Yeah, that is every market works differently. Quite a bit of stimulus in terms of investments comes there directly through the government.
There you see it's the public spending that is increasing, but not necessarily the private spending. Therefore, you see throughout all the banks that the loan deposit ratio there are significantly below 100. Of course, we have been very successful in Poland, growing over the past 20 years to become a top three bank there, or we are continuing to do so. There is a dislocation, if you will, between the growth in lending and deposits in that particular market. That is correct.
I just meant the growth market. It's like a category in your Excel file. You still answered my question, so thanks very much.
All right.
That is correct, by the way. All these dynamics are in the growth markets, which are mostly emerging markets. Whereby if you then look at also the lending that is being done to households to date compared to mature markets, compared to total GDP is significantly lower and is going step by step to higher levels, but it takes time. Yeah, the dynamics in those markets are different. That is correct.
That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Farquhar Murray of Autonomous. The line is open. Please go ahead.
Good. Just two questions, if I may. Firstly, as you say, the rates curve backdrop has been very volatile, there are quite a range of possible scenarios that could play out this year. My question there is how are you managing around that range of uncertainty and whether you've done anything specifically to adjust for it? That would be both in terms of positioning within the replication portfolio and perhaps also competitively, where it feels maybe you're leaving room to maneuver on campaigns this year. Secondly, briefly coming back on the mortgage floor change, should I take your comments as suggesting this will be simply wrapped into the kind of exercise at 1Q 2027, probably one and done and then maybe even slightly lumpy? Thanks.
All right. On the mortgage floor, I will respond, and then on the volt curve and the campaigns, Ida will respond. I think that when we talk about the mortgage floor, what I meant to say was that there's all kinds of movements happening, whether it is model updates or SRTs or changes in regulation. We just take it into account in our semi-annual update, in this case, by the end of October, whereby we say, "Okay, we look at what is our structural capital level, and if it's structurally above 13%, then we'll pay it back." Because what we need below that, we will need for growth.
If there is a structural excess above 13%, we will pay it back, we lump what we now see in also the mortgage floor in the Netherlands into account in that whole decision. Ida.
Thank you. In terms of looking at the replication, I think it's important to just say that this is primarily a risk management tool in order for us to match the different parts of the balance sheet rather than trying to make smart moves in the short term. That's also why you see that we continuously see a good uptick in terms of replication income from the second half of last year into this year and also expect to see it going forward. We haven't changed any strategy. We're not making shift transitions purely based on the volatility.
I think overall, we have a very low risk appetite when it comes to interest rate risks in the bank and are therefore managing interest rates overall in a prudent and strong way.
For campaigns.
Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions. I will now hand it back to Steven van Rijswijk for closing remarks.
All right. Thank you very much again for your time, your attention, your good questions. I'm sure you will have a very busy day given all the banks that are coming out with their figures today. All the best with that. I'm also very happy that you have now spoken to Ida as our new CFO and to Andrea as our Head of Risk. We will continue on that path in the next quarter. See you soon. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-04-15Results of ING’s 2026 Annual General Meeting
GlobeNewswire
Results of ING’s 2026 Annual General Meeting
Results of ING’s 2026 Annual General Meeting The Annual General Meeting (AGM) of ING Groep N.V. was held today in Amsterdam. The AGM approved the appointment of Ida Lerner to the Executive Board. The AGM also adopted all agenda items, including the annual accounts for 2025, the dividend for 2025 and updates to remuneration policies for the Executive Board and Supervisory Board. Note for editors For further information on ING, please visit www.ing.com. Frequent news updates can be found in the Newsroom. Photos of ING operations, buildings and its executives are available for download at Flickr. ING PROFILE ING is a global financial institution with a strong European base, offering banking services through its operating company ING bank. The purpose of ING Bank is: empowering people to stay a step ahead in life and in business. ING Bank’s more than 60,000 employees offer retail and wholesale banking services to customers in over 100 countries. ING Group shares are listed on the exchanges of Amsterdam (INGA NA, INGA.AS), Brussels and on the New York Stock Exchange (ADRs: ING US, ING.N). ING aims to put sustainability at the heart of what we do. Our policies and actions are assessed by independent research and ratings providers, which give updates on them annually. ING's ESG rating by MSCI has been upgraded from 'AA' to 'AAA' in October 2025. As of June 2025, in Sustainalytics’ view, ING’s management of ESG material risk is ‘Strong’ with an ESG risk rating of 18.0 (low risk). ING Group shares are also included in major sustainability and ESG index products of leading providers. Here are some examples: Euronext, STOXX, Morningstar and FTSE Russell. IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION Elements of this press release contain or may contain information about ING Groep N.V. and/ or ING Bank N.V. within the meaning of Article 7(1) to (4) of EU Regulation No 596/2014 (‘Market Abuse Regulation’). ING Group’s annual accounts are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as adopted by the European Union (‘IFRS- EU’). In preparing the financial information in this document, except as described otherwise, the same accounting principles are applied as in the 2025 ING Group consolidated annual accounts. All figures in this document are unaudited. Small differences are possible in the tables due to rounding. Certain of the statements contained herein are n...
TranscriptFY2025 Q42026-01-29FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 64 paragraphs
FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript
Good morning. This is Laura, welcoming you to ING's 4Q 2025 Conference Call. Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance and any statement not involving a historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and our earnings press release as posted on our website today. Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Good morning, Steven. Over to you.
Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our results call for the fourth quarter of 2025. I hope you're all well, and thank you for joining us today. As usual, I'm joined by our CRO, Ljiljana Cortan; and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul. And today, I'm proud to walk you through another year of outstanding commercial growth and financial performance driven by [audio gap] and I will also share our updated and upgraded outlook for 2027, which further underlines the strength and resilience of our business. After that, Tanate will give you more insight into our income and cost expectations for 2026 and present the quarterly financials. And as always, we will be happy to take your questions at the end of the call. And with that, let's now move to Slide 2. This slide highlights the continued commercial momentum we saw in the fourth quarter with outstanding growth across all key markets. We added more than 350,000 mobile primary customers during the quarter, bringing total growth for the year to over 1 million, fully in line with the ambitious target we set at our Capital Markets Day. Loan growth was also robust with absolute growth doubling versus the prior year and resulting in an 8.3% increase since the start of the year. In the fourth quarter alone, Retail Banking delivered EUR 10.1 billion in net core lending growth, driven mainly by residential mortgages. Wholesale Banking added EUR 10.3 billion, supported by strong demand in lending and working capital solutions as our clients' financing needs increased. We also saw healthy deposit development. Core deposits rose by EUR 38.1 billion for the full year or 5.5%. In the fourth quarter, Retail Banking contributed EUR 11.3 billion, benefiting from targeted campaigns and normal seasonal inflows and Wholesale Banking recorded a small net outflow, mainly due to lower short-term balances in our cash pooling activities. Fee income also continued the positive trends. For the full year, fees grew by 15%, supported by continued customer growth and increased cross-sell, essentially doing more business with more customers. And the fourth quarter also included a one-off benefit of EUR 66 million. All of this translated into very solid financial results. Our return on equity for 2025 was 13.2%, well above the guidance provided at the start of the year. And finally, we remain fully committed to supporting our clients in their sustainability transitions. Our total sustainability volume mobilized reached EUR 166 billion for the year, representing a 28% increase versus 2024. Now let's move to the next slide to look at how the commercial momentum drove our financial performance. On Slide 3, you can see that commercial NII remained very strong at EUR 15.3 billion. This result was supported by the significant increase in customer balances, both on the lending side and in liabilities. The volume growth largely offset the expected margin normalization. Fee income was also strong, increasing 15% compared to 2024, and they now account for 20% of total income. And this reflects structural drivers such as customer growth and increased cross-sell. Investment products performed particularly well with strong increases across all metrics, the number of customers, assets under management and the number of trades. And taken together, the strong NII and fee performance fueled total income growth, which reached a record level for the third consecutive year. And with that, let's now move to Slide 4. On this slide, we highlight actions taken to strengthen operational leverage, reinforcing our disciplined approach to cost management. We continue to invest in growth and diversification while increasingly leveraging new technologies. We were able to offset these investments by enhanced operational efficiency as the model becomes more scalable. In 2025, for example, we reduced customer friction by increasing the share of customer journeys handled without any manual intervention. We also introduced our chatbot in several retail markets, providing customers with faster and more accurate answers in their questions and resulting in annual savings as a large part of the chats are resolved without any human support. These improvements have contributed to a customer experience that is highly appreciated as reflected in our strong NPS positions across all markets. In retail banking, we maintained our #1 position in 5 out of 10 markets. And in Wholesale Banking, we achieved an NPS of 77, demonstrating both the quality of our client service and the value of our continued investments in expertise and sector knowledge. And our investments in scalability are also translating into higher efficiency, and this is visible in our FTE over customer balances ratio, which has improved by more than 7% since 2023. Then we move to Slide 5, where we show how our robust commercial growth, strong development of total income and proactive cost measures have resulted in strong capital generation. Over the past year, we delivered more than EUR 6.3 billion in net profit, contributing almost 2 percentage points to our CET1 ratio. And of this EUR 6.3 billion, 50% is distributed as a regular cash dividend, offering shareholders an attractive and predictable cash yield. Around 50% of the capital we generated has been used to fund profitable growth across our markets, and this percentage would even have been higher without the steps we took to optimize capital efficiency in Wholesale Banking, such as the 2 SRT transactions completed in November. Finally, we announced additional distributions to a total amount of EUR 3.6 billion, which also helped bring our CET1 ratio closer to our target level. And on the next slide, I will show how these distributions have resulted in a higher, highly attractive shareholder return. And then we move to Slide 6, where we summarize the total distributions to shareholders, and I will build on what I just discussed. In line with the distribution policy, we have consistently paid cash dividends and have been executing share buybacks for several years. Together, these actions have consistently delivered a highly attractive yield, including in 2025, a year in which our share price increased by almost 60%. The share buyback program we announced in November is currently underway and is expected to be completed in April 2026. And in addition, we paid out EUR 500 million in cash earlier in January, which helps us to meet the cash hurdle for this year, now finalized at EUR 3.3 billion. Looking ahead, we remain fully committed to delivering strong shareholder returns, and we will provide an update on our capital planning with our first quarter 2026 results. And now starting on Slide 8, I will guide you through how our strategy continues to accelerate growth, increase impact and deliver value. Now on this slide, I'm talking about Slide 8, we highlight our key strategic priorities supporting our Growing the Difference strategy, building on our successes over the past years. Firstly, we will continue to grow and diversify our income by adding more customers and doing more business with them. And a good example is the further expansion of our investment product offering. We have also introduced a subscription model for retail clients in Romania, and we will roll out this concept in other markets as well, which will help grow income from daily banking services. Our affluent customer base continues to grow rapidly, and we see further growth potential, and we're targeting this with dedicated propositions designed specifically for their needs. We're also stepping up our engagement with younger generations. For example, we introduced new products for Gen Z, including an investment fund focused on improving financial awareness within this group. And in business banking, we successfully launched our propositions in Italy and Germany, where we are seeing strong and ongoing customer growth. And in Wholesale Banking, we are expanding our range of fee-generating capital-light products to support sustainable and diversified revenue growth. Now secondly, we will further improve our operational leverage by scaling processes, people and technology while maintaining strict cost discipline to further utilization and scale of Gen AI will enhance efficiency and will help us to reach our FTE over customer balances target ahead of schedule. Finally, we remain firmly focused on generating strong capital going forward, and our allocation priorities are well defined in that regard. We will maintain an attractive shareholder return supported by a 50% payout policy. Secondly, we will continue to invest in value-accretive growth, diversify income streams as fund the loan book and a capital-efficient way and consider M&A opportunities that meet our criteria. And thirdly, we will return any capital structurally above our CET1 target to shareholders. We will also further increase the capital we allocate to retail banking and optimize the capital usage in the Wholesale Bank and note that we have already increased the capital allocated to retail banking to 54%. And with our strategy, we are confident in our ability to become the best European bank. And with this confidence, we have raised our expectations for the coming years. And then we move to Slide 9. And then I'll present our outlook for '26 and '27. And for 2026, we expect total income of around EUR 24 billion, and this outlook is supported by continued volume growth and an anticipated 5% to 10% increase in fee income. Total operating expenses, excluding internals -- sorry, incidentals are projected to be in the range of EUR 12.6 billion to EUR 12.8 billion. We will continue to manage our CET1 capital ratio at a target of around 13%. And in addition, we will transition from a return on equity metric to return on tangible equity. And for the full year 2026, we expect an ROE of 14% and ROTE to be higher than 14% and note that the delta between the 2 metrics was around 40 basis points, 40 basis points in 2025. Then looking ahead at 2027, we are introducing a new outlook for total income. We now expect it to exceed EUR 25 billion, which is at the upper end of our previous target range. This income number includes a higher fee income outlook, which we now expect to exceed EUR 5 billion in 2027. And we've moved away from the cost/income ratio and instead provide a clear hard outlook for operating expenses, again, excluding incidentals of around EUR 13 billion, 13. And this reinforces our continued focus on cost discipline and operational efficiency. And taken together, this outlook translates into a return on equity of 15% and a return on tangible equity of more than 15%. And now I'll hand over to Tanate, who will give more insight on our outlook for 2026 and who will walk you through the fourth quarter financial results in more detail, starting on Slide 10.
Thank you, Steven. As this is the last time I'll talk you through these numbers as the CFO of ING, I'm very pleased that I can close on such a strong result and provide you with an upgraded outlook. On Slide 10, let's start with commercial NII, which will benefit from increasing support from the replication portfolio. We also assume continued customer balance growth of around 5% per year, above the guidance that we gave at Capital Markets Day and reflecting the commercial momentum in our franchises. The liability margin is expected to be at the lower end of the 100 and 110 basis point range, while the lending margin is assumed to remain stable compared to the fourth quarter. Fees are expected to grow by a further 5% to 10%, building on the strong performance we achieved in 2025. All other income is expected to be around TRY 2.8 billion, excluding incidental items. This is driven by continued strong performance in financial markets, while in treasury, we expect less income from foreign currency hedging given the current lower interest rate differential between the euro and other currencies such as the U.S. dollar and the Turkish lira. Based on the current rate environment, taking 2024 last quarter as a run rate would be a fair starting point. Taken together, total income is expected to reach around EUR 24 billion in '26. And then on the next page, I'll walk you through the drivers behind the expected cost development. We expect total annual cost to be in the range of EUR 11.6 billion to 11.8 billion, excluding incidental and regulatory costs. The main driver of the increase remains inflationary pressure, which will again predominantly impact staff expenses. We will also continue to make selective investment to support business growth and further improve efficiency, as Steven highlighted earlier. These investment costs will be more than offset by operational efficiencies driven by increased scalability of our processes, people and technology, further utilization and scaling of Gen AI and continued optimization of our footprint. Given the strong income outlook, this modest cost growth results in a positive jaw for the year. Now let's move to the quarterly financials starting on Slide 13. On Slide 13, you can see that our commercial NII increased driven by very strong volume growth and a slightly higher lending margin, while the liability margin remained stable. Fee income continues its upward trend, driven by customer growth and strong performance in investment products and insurance. This is more than offset by lower fee income in wholesale lending. As a reminder, fee income in the fourth quarter included a EUR 66 million one-off in Germany. All other income was supported by continued strong results in financial markets, although seasonally lower compared to the previous quarters. As a whole, total income came in 7% higher than the same period last year. Now moving to Slide 14, where we will show the development of customer balances. As you can see, we delivered another quarter of strong loan growth across both retail and wholesale banking. Net core lending increased by EUR 20 billion. Retail banking contributed EUR 10.1 billion, driven by continued mortgage growth. increases across both business lending and consumer lending portfolios. Wholesale Banking also posted strong growth of AED 10.3 billion, reflecting strong performance in lending and somewhat elevated client demand in working capital solutions. On the liability side, core deposit increased by 9.5 billion. Retail banking drove the bulk of the growth, particularly in the Netherlands, Spain and Poland, which benefited from targeted campaigns and seasonal inflows. Wholesale Banking saw a small net outflow as increased deposit volume in PCM were more than offset by lower short-term balances in our cash pooling business. The other category of deposits were impacted by seasonal reductions in treasury. On Slide 15, you can see that the commercial NII grew by more than EUR 100 million quarter-on-quarter and was almost 5% higher than last year. Lending NII was up EUR 75 million in the fourth quarter, driven by volume growth and a 1 basis point improvement in lending margin to 126 basis points. The liability NII also increased by EUR 30 million, supported by sustained volume growth in retail banking and higher net interest income from our cash pooling business and PCM in Wholesale Banking. Turning to Slide 16. Fee growth remained strong, increasing 22% year-on-year. Excluding the EUR 66 million one-off retail banking fees in Germany, fees grew by 17% compared to last year. This was driven by structural factors such as continued customer growth, significantly higher insurance fees and increase in daily banking fees. Investment products also performed really well across several metrics. For example, 9% growth in customers, 16% growth in assets under management, of which roughly half came from net inflows and 22% more trades. Although wholesale banking fees decreased sequentially, wholesale still delivered a strong quarter, supported by solid results in Financial Markets and Corporate Finance. Slide 17 shows the development of all other income. Income in Financial Market is mostly driven by client activity. We continue to support our clients through volatile market conditions, mostly with foreign exchange and interest rate management. Treasury was impacted by lower results from foreign currency hedging. Next, Slide 18. Expenses, excluding regulatory support growth. The decrease is mainly driven by structural savings from previous restructuring and VAT refunds recognized in the fourth quarter. These effects more than compensated for wage inflation and ongoing investments in customer acquisition and product development, including expanding our offering for new customer segment. Regulatory costs include the annual Dutch bank tax, which is always fully recognized in fourth quarter and then allocated across segments. Incidental item related mostly to restructuring provision for planned FTE reductions in corporate staff and retail banking. Once these are fully implemented, these measures are expected to generate approximately EUR 100 million in annualized cost savings. When excluding these incidental items, we ended the year with expense below the outlook range we provided earlier. Now let's move on to risk costs on the next slide. Total risk costs were EUR 365 million in the quarter, equivalent to 20 basis points of average customer lending. This is in line with our through-the-cycle average. Net addition to Stage 3 provision amounts to EUR 389 million, mainly driven by individual Stage 3 provisioning for a number of new and existing funds in the wholesale bank. This was partly offset by releases of existing provision due to repayments, secondary market sales and structural improvements. As a result, the Stage 3 ratio increased slightly. For Stage 1 and Stage 2, we recorded a net release of $24 million, reflecting a partial release of management overlays and updated macroeconomic forecast. Overall, we remain confident in the strength and quality of our loan book. On Slide 20, we show the development of our core Tier 1 ratio, which declined compared to last quarter. Core Tier 1 decreased, reflecting the 1.6 billion distribution that was partly offset by the inclusion of our quarterly net profit. Risk-weighted assets increased by USD 4.5 billion this quarter. Credit risk-weighted assets rose by 1.5 billion, excluding FX impact, driven by volume growth. This was offset by the risk-weighted asset relief from 2 SRT transaction executed in November. Operational risk-weighted asset increased by EUR 2.2 billion, while market risk-weighted asset increased by EUR 0.5 billion. We'll pay a final cash dividend of EUR 0.736 per share on the 24th of April 2026, subject to our Annual General Meeting's approval. Now I hand back to Steven to wrap up today's presentation.
Yes. Thank you, Tanate. And for the ones who have been here longer with us, this is Tanate's last analyst presentation. We have been knowing each other today for more than 25 years, and we've been in the Board together already for 7 years and more. So thank you very much for working with us all these years. Tanate will still be with us until the AGM of 2025, which will take place in April. But I just want to take the opportunity also here to thank Tanate, also for the friendship, also for the leadership and the sharp mind that you have here with us. And I'll come sure visit you when you're back in Thailand at some point. So prepare for that. Now we move to Q&A, but let me recap the key takeaways from today's presentation. We have delivered another strong quarter end year, successfully executing our strategy, accelerating growth, increasing impact and delivering value. We achieved a record total income for the third consecutive year. We maintained cost discipline and operational efficiency gains, and they more than offset our investments in business growth. And we delivered another strong year of capital generation and returns, enabling continued attractive shareholder distributions. And with our strategy, we remain confident in our ability to stay on track to become the best European bank. And with this confidence, we have upgraded our expectations for the coming years with a very strong outlook for 2026 and a more ambitious but realistic outlook for 2027. And with that, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. Operator, back to you.
[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Benoit Petrarque of Kepler Cheuvreu. All the best. I guess you will not miss the Dutch winter, but in Thailand.
So it's an interesting time to live actually. It's the first quarter I actually see the volume growth benefiting fully the commercial NII as the negative effect of lower interest rates is getting smaller. I was wondering on the guidance of EUR 25 billion total income, what type of assumption do you take on growth? I think you've put somewhere in the slide 5% volume growth. I was wondering if that's the right number, given you are growing actually more than 5%. And also second question is on liability margin assumptions in your more than EUR 25 billion total income. Wondering where you stand on '27 on liability margin. And then maybe on Wholesale Banking, where are you on the risk-weighted assets growth plan for the wholesale? I think you were planning some optimization there. But I do see wholesale growing quite sharply again in the fourth quarter. So where do you see growth in wholesale going forward?
All right. I'll take -- thanks, Benoit. And yes, Tanate, for sure, will not miss the Dutch winter. Neither would I, by the way, if I would go to Thailand. But in any case, I'm here. If we look -- I will talk about the question about RWA and Wholesale Banking and also -- and then Tanate will talk about the NII and the growth for '26 and '27. So if you look at Wholesale Banking there we have been seeing good lending growth in the second half of this year, and the pipelines are also filled well now. So we want to continue to grow there as well. At the same time, to your point, we did 2 SRTs in November that had an impact of around 12 basis points on our CET1. For '26 and '27, by the way, we want to continue to do these SRTs. So we have just started with our more improvements that we have been making. So the first ones we did at the end of last year. This year, we continue to do SRTs, and we expect that to have an impact -- a positive impact on CET1 of 15 to 20 basis points, so a bit higher than we realized over 2025. Tanate?
Yes. Thanks, Benoit. I think in terms of the major assumptions we use in terms of giving out outlook, we have assumed 5% balance growth, and you say that, that is potentially conservative given what you see in Q4. I think what Q4 shows us is it gives us more confidence in achieving our target. That would be the first answer. The second one is really what curve did we use in terms of our projection. We use the December curve to do that projection, which is quite constructive in our view. And then the third margins. I think the 3 impacts that you see is really the continued reduction in the short-term replication negative impact on our results, the continued positive accretion because of long-term replication and the effect of deposit rate cuts that happened in 2025 that affects '26 and will continue to be accretive going into '27 as well. Our forecast for liability margin is on the lower end of the 100 to 110 basis points.
This is also for '27?
I think we don't give that outlook there. But I think if you see the replication on Page 30 that we show, the momentum continues to accrete in '26 and '27.
And we'll now take our next question from Benjamin Goy of Deutsche Bank.
My first question is on loans versus deposit growth. So another strong quarter of loan growth in particular, and I think it's the third quarter where your core lending growth has clearly outperformed core deposit growth. Is that something that you need to work on to be more balanced? Or are you happy to increase your loans faster as there are opportunities? And then secondly, on the costs, for the underlying cost guidance, but there has been historically a bit of incidentals every year. Should that now be smaller than in '25 going forward? Or what's best to assume for the incident that come on top of the cost guidance?
Yes. I think that on the loans versus deposit growth, I mean, if you look at 2025, the loan growth was about 8%. The deposit growth was about 6%, so EUR 57 billion against about EUR 38 billion. We've also seen years where that was the other way around. In the end, you want to balance the balance sheet. So long term, we want to approximately have same growth over a longer period with loans and with deposits. But 1 year can be a bit higher in loans and 1 year can be a bit higher in deposits. I think on both sides of the balance sheet, we see continued good growth with people continuing saving. Also, if you look at the deposit growth projections macroeconomically in the markets in which we are active, we continue to see that. And we do see significant loan growth in the different segments in which we're operating, most notably mortgages. But there, in the end, we want to balance the balance sheet, and we will always work on that. When we talk about the incidentals, yes, look, we will -- we continue to work on our cost discipline as we do. So on the one hand, we want to grow our customers, and we want to grow and diversify the activities in which we are active. And you've seen us doing that. We invest in more specific segmentation in existing retail segments. We have been rolling out business banking, for example, in Germany and Italy. We have been investing in diversifying our capital-light income in wholesale banking and transaction services and in financial markets. At the same time, we have seen since 2023, our FTE over balances decreased with 7%, and we believe we can reach our target that we gave in the Capital Markets Day in '24 of a decrease of 10% earlier than we anticipated what we then said in 2027. So we'll work towards this year. So we will work on both levers. But we always do this in a buy-side thing. So what you've seen, for example, with restructuring costs in 2025, those restructuring costs should deliver us a benefit of EUR 100 million in 2026. And each time that we have a process or area where we can realize better servers, better process optimization, better digitization, better use of Gen AI, then we will announce it because I just want to make sure that front to back, once we announce it, we can execute and we can execute while continuing to grow, and that's how we have been operating for the past 5 years, and we will continue to do so.
And we'll now move on to our next question from Giulia Miotto of Morgan Stanley.
Thank you for your patience answering our questions and all the best for the life after ING. But now I have 2 questions, please. So the cost outlook beyond '26, '26 looks quite a bit better. I think it's encouraging to see operating jaws being able to grow the costs much less than the revenues. Should we expect this trend to continue also in 2027? Consensus has got 3% year-on-year growth. I guess, I don't know what we are seeing could suggest something better than that. And then separately, Steven, I wanted to pick your brain on M&A. We have seen some headlines on Romania, but also Spain and Italy have been in focus in your comments, although we don't see much actions. So any comments on what you're thinking strategically on the M&A front?
All right. On M&A. So look, we show good growth. You see that both in existing activities and also in diversification on the various fronts, both in lending and in fees, by the way, on investment products and insurance. Still, and I've said this before, we've also started with filling in the blanks in countries where we don't have all activities, such as business banking and private banking and certain types of investments in asset management in certain countries. Still, if we can accelerate that growth by means of acquisitions, then we will look at it. You've seen us taking a financial stake in private banking of [indiscernible] last year. In the fourth quarter, we announced buying the majority and thereby in the end 100% of an asset manager in Poland, integrating that asset manager into ING, we bought that from Goldman Sachs, the 55%. And we continue to look. We don't comment on individual markets. Also in Romania, what I can say is that the business is successful. We have been increasing the numbers of customers that we serve. We have been growing, again, also lending deposits and fees. And we have a very strong return on equity there. We consider ourselves one of the most successful, if not most successful bank in that country. But also there, if we can have opportunities to increase scale or add segments that we do not have, we will look at that as in any other market. And then the caveat, it needs to fit. It needs to add to that local scale and diversification, and we want it also to be accretive for shareholders, and that's the construct in which we're working and which we are willing to consider M&A. Tanate, the jaws.
Yes. I think given the outlook, we have now turned the corner in terms of positive jaw for '26, and we're confident that we'll continue that positive jaw in 2027. If you look at the 3 drivers of our cost growth in '27, the first one is inflation impact, which we expect that the stickiness of inflation impact should moderate in '27 compared to '26. We will continue to invest in our franchise in client acquisition. In fact, if we can do more, we would do more in terms of accelerating our client acquisition. We have some big programs in terms of investment, financial market infrastructure, payment capabilities, investing in segments that we are not currently present, as Steven has mentioned. And if you have seen in our '26 guidance, we upgraded our ambition in terms of cost reduction from 2% to 3%. So that trend is expected to continue into 2027 as well.
So I take away that probably growth will be more modest than what is to be expected in '27?
You can do your analysis, Giulia. We've given our guidance.
Tanate Didn't even blink when he asked that question.
And we'll now move on to our next question from Tarik El Mejjad of Bank of America.
Tanate, thanks for the very interesting interactions we had all these many years and good luck for what's to come. Just from my side, 2 quick questions, please. With a follow-up one on the liability margins more in 2027. I mean just trying to back solve a bit what market expects, assuming asset margin are quite stable or growing a bit the volumes, we can put your assumptions with even some extra buffers and replicate portfolio, we kind of understand now how it works and so on. It's just the -- in my view, is it fair really to think that the gap between -- I mean the downside potential risk is for the market expect consensus is too optimistic, perhaps, assumptions of rate cuts or no rate raise in the core saving deposits in '27? Because if you use the forward curve as of December, clearly, you would also take a view on what's your ability to navigate the core savings deposits in Netherlands and other markets. And the second question is on costs is more really to want to understand how you think about the investments because, I mean, you have some headroom now created on the revenue side, higher growth and very comfortable to reach your targets. And then on the cost, the pressure from salary negotiation should come down with inflation. So that extra headroom, I want to understand how you think about the next 2 years in terms of investments in AI and tech. I mean, yes, you have the machine learning and with the compliance aspect, the Gen AI that you've already started to roll out with some early benefits we see. But what about the next step in AI and tech? And how much of more investments needed to deliver your ambition on that front?
Let me take the question, Tarik, on AI and then Tanate will talk about the margins. Look, I mean, we do clearly see benefits of AI coming through. I mean we have been working with AI already for a decade and then with Gen AI, we work with that in the last couple of years. But there, you see both on, let's say, the -- on the client side and on the operational leverage side benefits coming through. And let me give you a few examples. If you look at [ PI ] onboarding, the STP increased last year from 66% to 79%. So that means that close to 90% of our private individual clients were onboarding through STP. We do end-to-end [indiscernible] delivery. We increased that approvals with 11% last year. So the time to [indiscernible], therefore, improved. We do about 60 million in customer lending without manual intervention. So you see a number of customer benefits coming through. When we talk specifically about GenAI and also in chatbot, we have better scores, CSAT scores, which are sort of satisfaction scores for our customers. So we do see benefits coming through for GenAI, both on the revenue side, doing more with our customers and having more satisfied customers and on the operational leverage. We do that in 5 areas at current. So we took the 5 big wins that we see starting with contact centers, in IT, coding, in lending, in personalized marketing and in KYC. So those are the big areas. We do these benefits, we see them coming through. Every quarter, you see announcement, you've seen announcements whereby we say, okay, what impact does it have on our staff, what impact does it have on our operations? And you see it also coming through in FTE over balances. And we're actually quite optimistic on the impact it will have on our operational leverage going forward for '26 and also in 2027. And we will make announcements as we move along and when we can say this is now the next step that we will take, including, of course, good reskilling of our staff and making sure we can grow and continue to grow our franchise sustainably.
And Tarik, to your second question, I think we also see based on the December curve that the accretion and replication in '26 going to '27 and '28 are quite strong. The real debate is what -- how do you balance that additional revenue in terms of margins and in terms of mix, right? And what we see is that we are looking at the dynamics of maintaining growth in customer growth in volumes and making sure that we take into account the level of competition we see in the market. And if you look pre negative rates environment, ING operated on a liability margin of around 90 to 100 basis points. We have updated our guidance to 100 to 110. And we think we're comfortable with that rate given the balanced dynamics of growth, competition and to be remaining competitive while at the same time, being accretive to our shareholders.
I mean I don't want to put words in your mouth, but basically, to deliver on the consensus or market numbers means that market has to be much more bullish on the volume growth and lending and probably be less positive on the margin side. But I'm just trying to reconcile a bit what your guidance outlook, which is very helpful versus where market is positioned.
And we'll now take our next question from Delphine Lee of JPMorgan.
Also I want to take the opportunity to send my best wishes to Nate, thank you for everything. So my 2 questions. First of all, sorry, I just want to follow up on Tarik and other questions around NII. But -- so if we look at your guidance for 2026, which implies about EUR 600 million increases for liability margins. But if you look at the repricing actions that you've done in '25, I mean, the impact on '26 is already EUR 700 million. And then on top of that, you have some small benefits from -- well, your replicating income as well on '26 more, but like still. So I'm just kind of wondering like what is your current assumption and in terms of the deposit cost and deposit pass-through from 42% in Q4? And if you could just sort of elaborate a little bit on what are you seeing on competition on deposits at the moment? What do you expect for '26 and onwards? My second question is on cost. So you've done a good job of trying to kind of contain a little bit of inflation with the savings. I'm just trying -- just trying to understand a little bit if 2%, 3% is really kind of like the run rate that we should expect like even beyond '27. Is that something that you're trying to achieve in the long run? Yes, just trying to understand a little bit the moving parts of that cost number, you've provided this for '26, but even beyond that, like what are the savings? You've mentioned a couple of benefits from FTE reductions, but just kind of trying to quantify a little bit what else can we expect in the long run?
All right. Thank you very much. I think that on the costs, you see the effects of our digitalization and scalability now really seeing take shape. And we saw that now also in the fourth quarter, but also I'm pointing again at FTE over balances. You also now see that when we look at 2026 about the operational leverage and efficiencies that we have compared to the increase in investments. So the operational efficiencies are higher, and that's where we want to be. We want to make sure that when we make additional investments, we can have operational leverage that is higher than that. So that's maybe a little bit of direction to give you or guidance to give you in terms of where we want to end up. And indeed, therefore, you will see in '26 and '27 improved cost to income to what we have been showing and positive jaws territory that we have now been gotten into and I want to stay in that territory. And at the same time, we continue to want to grow our investments where we can grow our clients for long-term clients and shareholder benefit. But that's a bit of guidance towards the cost. Then Tanate, on the deposit cost of margins?
I think we gave a bit of detail on Page 20 of our presentation showing the movements in terms of commercial NII. I think the lending NII is driven by basically stable margin and approximately 5% loan growth. And similarly, for liability NII, we also assume 5% liability growth. Of that EUR 600 million we show, part of it is due to volume, about half. The other half is through the improvement in margins. As you say, the replication is getting better, but there's some short-term impact that still need to feed through our numbers and the EUR 700 million is factored into that guidance.
And we'll now take our next question from Namita Samtani of Barclays.
The first question I have is on German retail. There's quite a lot of cost growth in 2025 there. I think it's around 11% year-on-year, and it's a lot higher than other regions. So I wondered what are you exactly spending on in Germany? And is this defensive spend given the new players entering the market? And then I think about your liability margin, which is, of course, at group level, but are you telling us that we're at peak earnings for Germany in retail given high expense spend and [indiscernible] spend to gather deposits? And my second question, based on your updated '27 targets today, the cost to income implied in '27 is maybe 51%, 52%. It's hardly a standout amongst European banks, even ABN is now going to below 55%. I just wondered, given the digital model ING has or aspires to have and the use of AI, what's holding the group back from delivering a better cost to income target?
Yes. Thank you very much. On the cost to income side, our main opportunity is to grow our revenues, our revenues over our client balances, our diversification in Wholesale Banking, our revenues over RWA and as a result, but that's then a consequence of it also that will have a positive impact on our cost to income. But what we need to do, that's why our strategy is called Grow the Difference is grow our revenues because that's where we can make the biggest difference in further improving our returns and then indirectly also our cost to income. And so the digital model has brought us a lot in terms of presence in markets, but that's why we're talking about doing new activities in these markets or doing more with customers in these markets because that is the next step in our evolution, what we're currently doing. Tanate?
Yes. The German cost/income ratio is a robust one despite the increase in investments that we make in Germany. One thing that you have to remember is that the client growth that we have, 1 million customer per year, a very significant portion comes from Germany, which is our main market. So that's why the investments in client acquisition, in creating new products, creating new segments is very strong in Germany. very, very much like the rest of ING seeing a turnaround in terms of the momentum in terms of revenue and cost in Germany. And we do expect that the positive jaw will return to Germany in 2026, while continuing to invest in our franchise, both in terms of the fundamental platforms as well as client acquisition.
And we'll now take our next question from Cyril Toutounji of BNP Paribas.
So I've got 2. One on lending margin. So we had an improvement this quarter, which is welcome and I think pretty good news. And you're saying it's due to mortgages. I'm just curious in which market has happened? And if you can give us more indication whether this can continue maybe a bit? And the second one would be on deposit campaigns. Can you update us on the ongoing campaigns right now? And I don't know if you can give this indication as well, but should we expect more or less campaigns versus the 2025 run rate?
Yes. Thank you, Cyril. I'll take the question on deposit campaigns and Tanate talks about the lending margin. So yes, about the deposit campaigns, look, we have these campaigns regularly. We had them also in the fourth quarter with Black Friday in some markets or in Germany, as they call it Black Friday. So we will continue these campaigns, and we typically see that there's a good response in getting either new money from existing clients or getting new clients in. And then typically, we see that we get money to stick to around 2/3 of the money that after campaigns will stick with ING and therefore, we can gain new primary customers and increase our deposit levels. So for us, that works well. And what we work on every time is we make them more bespoke to certain customer segments and we make them more data-driven, so we can target them more and more. So we are very happy with the approach we've taken. We are confident about what we are doing, and we will keep on having these campaigns and we make them more bespoke about a year. Tanate, about the margins?
Yes, So I think we are also pleased to see that we have stabilized our lending margin and that it's improved by 1 basis point. And to your specific questions on mortgage margin, it's been stable or increasing across the board. I think some of the markets where the new production margins are improving is in Belgium, increasing in Germany, increasing in Italy and Spain. So it's quite widespread in terms of margin improvement, but we do see a bit of pressure in terms of new production margin in the Netherlands.
We'll now take our next question from Johan Ekblom of UBS.
Thank you for everything, Tanate, and best of luck. Just most questions have been answered. But at the Capital Markets Day, we spoke a lot about the business banking opportunities, and I guess, in particular, in Germany. How should we, from the outside, try and measure your success there? Because it's very difficult to track where you are in terms of the rollout and I guess also when you are expecting to see volumes start to come through in a more meaningful way. So any update on kind of how the business banking rollout in Germany is going would be much appreciated.
Yes. Thank you very much, Johan. Indeed, business banking is one of the levers that we pull to diversify. To give you a few data points, we -- the third largest growth we had in business banking customers in terms of number of customers this year was Germany. So that already shows you that we're starting to grow quite well in Germany. It starts from a very small base, obviously, because we started from virtually 0. So that's one. Two, we also get very good deposits in from our business banking customers in Germany, so also there. So increasingly, that will become more sizable. But compared to our business banking franchises in the Netherlands and Belgium, for example, of course, it is very minimal because we have EUR 114 billion business banking lending book. And in Germany, we're just starting. So that will take time. But it is almost like you saw with the insurance fees there you see in the fee income line, as an example, it was not even a separate fee line. And there you see step by step by step, it's almost like a snowball. We do more and more and more. And at some point, it will become a sizable business, and that's also what we see happening in business banking in Germany.
And we'll take our next question from Shrey Srivastava of Citi.
Thank you, Tanate, for answering all the questions over the previous quarters. I just want to look more top down because obviously, following on from previous questions, we've talked about the upside on the replicating income versus your guided liability margin still at 100 to 110 basis points. A, is your sort of 5% volume growth guidance predicated on further deposit campaigns to get you within this 100 to 110 basis points? Or is any sort of upside to volume growth from that incremental to the 5%? And secondly, what are sort of the hurdle rates you have in mind when thinking about going forward with a new deposit campaign? Because obviously, as you've heard sort of many of us to get from the assumptions we have when plugging your replicating income into the model to the liability margin of 110 basis points would require some sort of pretty significant deposit campaigns. So what are some of the things you think about when deciding to give up that short-term upside for sort of longer-term growth?
All right. Tanate, can you give the elements of our replication income or lease liability margin again?
Yes. I think the 5% deposit growth, I think it's a good base number, right? And I think you look in the context of 2025, where the growth is around 5%. So that trend line, we expect to continue despite competition, despite quantitative tightening. So I think it's a good number to assume 5% growth. Does campaign play a big role in that? It continues to be the case, right, that we have campaigns in many markets we operate in. We continue to use that as a tool, but we also get additional flows coming into the bank all the time. And what I look at really is the growth in our primary customer, the intensity of which we have a relationship with our customer is there. And I think looking at the replication, it's still the 3 moving parts, right? It's really the impact of the short-term replication still having a tail impact is continued accretion of long-term replication coming through and the actions that we would take in terms of rate increases or decreases over time. And I think we like to reiterate that we don't give guidance for '27 in terms of liability margin, but we expect it to operate in '26 at the lower end of the 100 to 110, and we're comfortable that we can achieve our target with that guidance.
And we'll take our next question from [ Seamus Murphy ] of [indiscernible]
Sorry, I'm coming back again to a lot of the questions that have been asked in one sense just in terms of the guidance. So I suppose you've guided 16 to -- sorry, EUR 16.3 billion to EUR 16.5 billion for commercial NII in 2026. But in Q4, it was [ EUR 3.928 ] billion. So that suggests an exit rate of just over EUR 4 billion into Q1 2026. That's already in the bag. And if I annualize that, I'm kind of getting EUR 16.2 billion at the start of the year, just before anything else happens and the upper end of your guidance, therefore, only needs 2% growth to achieve the 16.5%. And obviously, we have -- so I suppose question one, is there anything wrong with the math as you start the year that you have kind of EUR 16.2 billion of NII heading into the -- sorry, EUR 16.2 billion into this year at the start? And the second question then is, obviously, we have growth, so there's only limited growth needed. But the second question then is, you mentioned earlier on the call that the long end of the replication portfolio is a positive further into '26 and '27. Two things have happened. Your current account balances have grown EUR 5 billion, I think, to [ EUR 175 billion ] now. And secondly is that, obviously, the curve has deepened. So it would be super useful if you could tell us how much the long end of the replication portfolio will contribute in '26 and '27. And the last question, I asked this also on the Q3 call because it's becoming more and more important for banks, I think, is that do you expect FTEs to fall as we look into '27 and '28 at the group level?
Thanks, Seamus, for your questions. Well, we do expect FTE over balances to fall. So this is about, of course, a continuous focus on growth and then on a marginal basis, doing that with less marginal cost. And that's why we use the metric FTE over balances, whereby we continuously accept -- sorry, see an improvement or expect an improvement based on our digitalization and AI and GenAI and better process management as we have been doing over the past years. And that trend we see continuing. At the same time, we want to grow because we need to diversify and grow our revenues over our balances and our RWA. But from an FTE over balancing perspective, we should see further improvements. Tanate, how does it work with that?
Yes, Seamus, we will see each other in London, so we can go into a bit more detail. But I think it's a dangerous game to take Q4 and then extrapolating it. But I think if I look at full year to full year, the impact is over EUR 1 billion, right? That's a 7% growth in net interest income, which I think is a strong number and strong guidance. And I also -- we don't give replicated income in such details of how much the long end would contribute, except that we have disclosed in our presentation that 55% of our replication is long dated. And I also noted the fact that the drive of our primary customer is driving increasing current account and that increasing current account means better margin. So we do recognize that.
[Operator Instructions] And we'll now move on to our next question from Anke Reingen of RBC.
But firstly, thank you very much, Tanate,and all the best. And then to questions. So firstly, can you just talk a bit about your expectation on lending volume growth in 2026? I guess the 5% applies here as well, but I suppose, Q3, Q4, you've seen very strong growth. So where do you see sort of like the mix falling into 2026? I mean I hear your margin comment, but maybe just more a bit in terms of the mix. And then you commented earlier on about the SRTs of 15 basis points benefit. Can you just clarify, is that per year? Or is that over the 2 years, '26 and '27...
Thank you very much, Anke, for your questions. If you look at the SRTs, the impact in '25 was 12 basis points and that impact remains there. So once we have taken, let's say, the first loss piece of our balance sheet, it will remain [indiscernible] of our balance sheet. But in '26, we're going to do an additional number of SRTs that should benefit an additional 15 to 20 basis points on our CET1. And we, of course, will then also continue for '27 and thereafter. But on those years, we haven't yet given guidance. When we talk about lending growth, we see good growth across the board, like you've seen in the third and the fourth quarter that both in and mortgages and in Business Banking and Wholesale Banking, we continue to see good growth. The pipelines are good. Clearly, especially with the underlying macro drivers, there is shortage of housing in many of the markets in which we operate, in this case in the Netherlands, that is the case in Belgium, that is in Germany. That is the case in Spain. We are -- we have a total mortgage book of EUR 370 billion. So we are a top 3 mortgage provider in the region in Europe. And in many of the markets in which we are active, we see there are good macroeconomic fundamentals to continue that growth, low unemployment levels, good salary increase over the past couple of years, shortage of housing, lower number of people in individual households, so an increase in the number of households and those fundamentals continue to be there. And that's why that is going to be a significant driver of the loan growth in 2026 and '27.
And we'll now take our next question from Matthew Clark of Mediobanca.
So firstly, coming back to this EUR 25 billion target for 2027 revenues or greater than EUR 25 billion. I mean, are you trying to talk down consensus there, which is EUR 25.8 billion, I think? Or do you think that's still consistent with the greater than component of that target? So I just want to understand your thinking for framing that target that way against the context of a higher consensus? And then secondly, on wholesale lending, why is now the right time for you to be putting your foot down on wholesale lending? What's changed in terms of risk reward, et cetera? And I guess asking that in the context of an uptick in credit losses on wholesale this quarter.
Yes. Thank you very much. Well, let me put it this way for 2027. So we said that the revenues are larger than EUR 25 billion. So we are confident about our growth, and we're also confident about '27. So don't forget the larger then sign in EUR 25 billion for '27, but yes, that's where we currently are. And we're very comfortable with that level. When you talk about Wholesale Bank lending, well, look, we had slow quarters in the first half of 2025, and then it picked up very well in the second half of the year. In the end, what we want to realize in Wholesale Banking is higher revenues over RWA and a higher return over RWA. And in that regard, we have been investing and we are continuing to invest in Transaction Services and Financial Markets. That will help us to drive the diversification in Wholesale Banking and do more with our customers next to lending, but lending, of course, is also good. And secondly, we're attacking, let's say, our capital there. Our capital was about 50-50 in '24. Now we said for '27, we had a target of 55% in retail and then 45% in Wholesale Banking. It's already at 54% for retail and 46% for Wholesale Banking. So we're on a good path quicker than we initially anticipated. And that's why we continue also to work on the SRTs to make sure that also on the capital side in Wholesale Banking, we can do more with less capital to help with return going up. So it's not a particular focus on lending alone. In the end, we're focused on return.
And we'll now take our next question from Farquhar Murray of Autonomous.
Obviously, congratulations, Tanate and best wishes for the future. Coming back to the day job though for now, 2 questions, if I may. Firstly, please, can you reconcile the indication of EUR 0.4 billion of hedging tailwinds into '26 of 4Q with kind of flat replicating income on a year-on-year basis on Slide 29. Is that simply a matter of how things came through in the quarters? And perhaps can you just flesh that out through '25 and into '26? And also, is there a quarterly pattern to that hedging impact and also maybe the short-term effects you mentioned earlier? And then secondly, if we look last year, lending outpaced deposits, if we look at the 8% versus the 5% I know you said the kind of planning assumption as a kind of balanced 5%, but what's your general sense about where customer demand is at present?
I think that -- so on the customer demand at present, I mean, we -- actually, we do see continued good mortgage growth, again, because we see the macroeconomic elements that we saw in there, we see them continuing. And therefore, if you look at the number of houses being sold last year in a number of our main markets in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, they all have increased. And also, we see increases in a number of these housing markets to continue in 2026 and '27. So again, we're very positive towards that end. I think in business banking, we have also been improving our processes, and therefore, we've made it easier for our customers to borrow with us. So I think there, it's also an improvement of capabilities that we have had and by the way, rolling out business banking step by step by step in Germany, Italy and potentially also in other markets that we're looking at. We've spoken about Spain before. And then in Wholesale Banking, it's always more lumpy, funny enough, whereby you do see geopolitical uncertainty on the one hand and the PMI index being relatively low, we've seen sort of a catch-up demand of Wholesale Banking lending in the third and fourth quarter. The pipeline is still good. Yes, probably that Wholesale Banking in that sense is always a bit more choppy in terms of growth than the other elements. But the main consistent element in the lending growth sits in the mortgage side. Then on the hedging tailwinds, there, I want to give the floor to Tanate.
Thank you very much, Farquhar. I think what we see is that if you look at our quarterly commercial NII, it reached a trough in Q2, improved from EUR 3.7 billion to EUR 3.8 billion and from EUR 3.8 billion to EUR 3.9 billion during the course. So you already see signs of that replication impact. I think what the EUR 400 million refers to is the fact that the short end pressure that we see is decreasing. We see the fact that in Q4, we also have the benefit of the rate cuts already materializing into the numbers and that 55% of the long end is already positive. So it's a combination of all these 3 factors that drives the EUR 400 million tailwind.
And we'll now take our next question from Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs International.
I just have one question left. And obviously, good luck, Tanate. I'm sure you're going to miss all these questions on replicating income and liability margins when you're relaxing in Thailand. But just on this question on the corporate side, you talked about increasing levels of working capital lending and lower deposits. Are those 2 points linked, i.e., are corporate customers building up working capital and therefore, draining their cash balances in anticipation of higher activity later in the year? And if so, how long should that working capital cycle last for? And would we notice any impact on NII through this year as and when it reverses, either on the lending margin or on the liability margin?
Yes. Thanks, Chris. And yes, Tanate will miss those questions. But luckily, we have Ida Lerner, our new CFO, and she already told me yesterday, said she's really looking forward to all these questions. So next quarter, you can expect her to answer these. On the working capital side, yes, I mean, on the wholesale side, you saw that EUR 10.3 billion lending and working capital solutions growth. So part was indeed working capital solutions. That had to do with a couple of large deals, very large companies doing very large deals, and we were leading those deals. So that doesn't necessarily have a link with each other that those are, let's say, seasonal swings that sometimes you have and sometimes you don't have. Clearly, those working capital solutions deals because they are typically short term and self-liquidating or collateralized or they have a borrowing base behind it. They have lower margins. But we have many of these. And so that doesn't have a particular big impact on the lending margin. When we talk about the cash pooling business, that's the pooling both in our payments and cash management and the notional pooling business, typically, clients at the end of the year, they will consolidate their positions and net them off. And because they net them off, they net them off in our accounts, and therefore, you see a lower amount coming in there. So a seasonal pattern.
There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to Steven Van Rijswijk for closing remarks.
Yes. Thank you very much. I think we can -- we are very proud of our 2025 numbers and also very confident about '26 and '27, hence, the improved and heightened outlook. And I want to thank you for all your questions and observations today, and again, Tanate, for the fantastic collaboration, and you are a great friend and a great colleague. Thanks very much, everybody, and I hope you have a great Thursday.
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-10-31ING Groep NV (ING) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Mobile Customers and ...
GuruFocus.com
ING Groep NV (ING) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Mobile Customers and ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Release Date: October 30, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. ING Groep NV (NYSE:ING) reported strong commercial momentum with significant growth in mobile primary customers, adding nearly 200,000 in the quarter. The loan book expanded significantly, with retail seeing an 8.6 billion increase in net core lending, primarily driven by residential mortgages. Sustainable finance volumes increased by 29% compared to the previous year, demonstrating ING's commitment to supporting clients in their sustainability transitions. ING announced a EUR 1.6 billion distribution, including a new share buyback and a cash dividend, reflecting strong capital generation and shareholder returns. Fee income grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by structural revenue drivers across both retail and wholesale banking, leading to an increased full-year growth outlook. Core deposits declined slightly due to promotional campaigns and seasonal spending patterns, particularly in Germany and Belgium. The CET1 ratio target was revised to around 13%, indicating increased regulatory requirements and potential capital pressures. There were incidental expenses related to restructuring provisions, expected to result in $30 million in annualized cost savings, indicating ongoing cost management challenges. Retail deposit outflows were noted, attributed to the conclusion of promotional savings campaigns and seasonal effects. The lending margin experienced compression due to a greater share of mortgage financing, with expectations for normalization in the future. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with ING. Is ING fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Q: With the increase in CET1 requirements, do you foresee stabilization, or could there be more pressure? Also, regarding NII and deposits, what trends have you observed in Q3, and are they continuing into Q4? A: We do not anticipate additional pressures on capital as we have factored in all potential buffers. Discussions with supervisors about mortgage floors are ongoing, but any changes are expected by 2032. Regarding deposits, retail outflows were due to marketing campaigns in Germany and seasonal effects. Wholesale banking saw inflows, keeping deposits approximately flat. We are satisfied with a 6% annualiz...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-10-31ING Groep (ENXTAM:INGA) Is Up 7.5% After Earnings Beat and €1.6B Capital Return - Has The Bull Case Changed?
Simply Wall St.
ING Groep (ENXTAM:INGA) Is Up 7.5% After Earnings Beat and €1.6B Capital Return - Has The Bull Case Changed?
ING Groep N.V. announced third-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, upgraded its full-year fee growth forecast, and revealed a €1.6 billion capital return to shareholders, including a €1.1 billion share buyback and a €500 million special dividend. Enhanced fee income, renewed loan growth, and disciplined capital management were central to the stronger operating results and improved shareholder distributions. We’ll explore how ING’s upgraded fee growth guidance and large capital return could influence its investment narrative moving forward. Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 35 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource. To own ING Groep, you need confidence in its ability to balance digital-driven growth, resilient fee income, and prudent capital returns against ongoing European macro and regulatory headwinds. The recent third-quarter results, which topped analyst expectations and led to an upgraded full-year fee growth forecast, reinforce ING’s fee-income-driven diversification as a vital near-term catalyst. However, the lingering risk remains: foreign exchange volatility impacting commercial net interest income could cloud earnings growth, and the latest news does not meaningfully offset this exposure. Among recent executive changes, ING’s appointment of Ida Lerner as the next CFO stands out. While this does not shift key catalysts in the immediate term, stable management transitions could help maintain focus on expanding fee income and executing capital returns, supporting the refreshed short-term growth outlook. In contrast, investors should also be aware that ongoing foreign exchange headwinds… Read the full narrative on ING Groep (it's free!) ING Groep's narrative projects €24.9 billion revenue and €6.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.3% yearly revenue growth and a €1.8 billion earnings increase from the current €4.8 billion. Uncover how ING Groep's forecasts yield a €22.53 fair value, in line with its current price. The Simply Wall St Community submitted 11 fair value estimates for ING Groep, ranging widely from €18.19 to €43.86 per share. While many are optimistic about the earnings stability enabled by IN...
TranscriptFY2025 Q32025-10-30FY2025 Q3 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 56 paragraphs
FY2025 Q3 earnings call transcript
[Audio Gap] 3Q 2025 Conference Call. Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Groep, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance and any statement not involving a historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, and our earnings press release as posted in our website today. Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Good morning, Steven, over to you.
Good morning. Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to our results call for the third quarter of 2025. I hope you're all well, and thank you for joining us. As usual, I'm joined by our CRO, Ljiljana Cortan; and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul. While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains prevalent, we have again delivered a strong quarter as we continue to execute our strategy to accelerate growth, increase our impact and deliver customer value. In today's presentation, I will start by sharing further insights in how our capital allocation will continue to fuel growth and increase returns. And I will also update you on our long-term capital target. Thereafter, Tanate will walk you through the quarterly financials. And as always, we will be happy to take your questions at the end of the call. And now let's move to Slide 2. This slide highlights our continued strong commercial momentum in the third quarter with solid growth across key areas. We have added nearly 200,000 mobile primary customers during the quarter, bringing growth in the last 12 months to over EUR 1.1 [ million ], well ahead of the target set at our Capital Markets Day. Our loan book expanded significantly in both Retail and Wholesale and Retail saw EUR 8.6 billion in net core lending growth driven mainly by residential mortgages. Wholesale Banking also delivered a strong quarter, supported by trade finance services and lending, reflecting increased client financing needs. Core deposits declined slightly following substantial inflows in previous quarters and this was largely due to the inclusion of promotional campaigns and seasonal spending patterns during the summer in Retail Banking. On the other hand, Wholesale Banking posted strong inflows, particularly in payments and cash management, financial markets and cash pooling. Customer balances grew at an annualized rate of 7% in the first 9 months of 2025, keeping us well on track to achieve our 4% annual growth target. Fee income also continued upward trend. Year-to-date, fees grew by 12%, and we have raised our full year 2025 growth outlook to more than 10%. Our fourth quarter rolling average ROE stands at 12.6%, and we have also revised our full year ROE outlook upwards. Finally, we remain committed to supporting clients in our sustainability transitions with sustainable finance volumes up 29% compared to the same period last year. Now let's move to the next slide to discuss what this growth means for our capital generation. On Slide 3, we show how our continued commercial growth, further income diversification and proactive cost measures have delivered strong capital generation. Over the past 4 quarters, we have delivered EUR 6 billion of net profit, which contributed an additional 2 percentage points to our CET1 ratio in line with the 2 prior years. This performance has enabled us to offer an attractive and sustainable dividend with an ordinary cash dividend yield of nearly 6% in the last 12 months, and part of the capital we generated was reinvested to support profitable growth across both our business lines. And finally, thanks to our strong capital generation, we have been able to announce and execute additional distributions amounted to EUR 4.5 billion over the last 12 months and EUR 12.5 billion over the last 3 years. Then I'll move to Slide 4, where we summarize the total distributions to shareholders, building on what I just mentioned. In our policy, we have consistently paid cash dividends and we have been executing share buybacks for several years. And these actions have delivered a highly attractive yield, while our share price has risen significantly. The EUR 2 billion share buyback program, which started in May this year was concluded earlier this week. And today, we are announcing an additional EUR 1.6 billion distribution. All that amount, EUR 1.1 billion will be returned in the form of a new share buyback, which will have a lasting positive impact on both earnings and dividends per share. And in addition, we will pay a cash dividend of EUR 500 million in January 2026, helping us to meet the expected cash flow for the year. Looking ahead, we remain committed to delivering strong shareholder returns and we will provide you an update with our first quarter 2026 results. Now let's move to Slide 5, where I will explain the rationale behind updating our CET1 ratio target. So here on Page 5, our expected fully loaded CET1 MDA has risen over a year from 10.5% in 2020 to around 11.2%, primarily due to regulatory changes. And consequently, we have revised our capital target and will now measure our CET1 ratio at around 13%. And this target gives us a buffer of about 180 basis points above the MDA threshold, which we consider appropriate given the resilience of our business model and the fact that a significant portion of the MDA over 1 percentage point is attributable to countercyclical buffers. Any CET1 capital above 13% will be treated as excess and factored into our future capital planning as evidenced by the additional distribution that we announced today. And in the previous slides, I'm now on Slide 6, I outlined how we have deployed excess and newly generated capital over the past years, delivering strong shareholder returns. And although we are no longer in a position of excess capital, we remain firmly focused on generating strong capital going forward, and our allocation priorities are well defined. First, we will maintain an attractive shareholder return supported by our 50% dividend payout policy. Second, we will continue to invest in value-accretive growth, further diversifying income streams, expanding the loan book in a capital-efficient way and considering M&A opportunities that meet our strict criteria. And these investments will help us to accelerate growth and enhance earnings potential as the return on new business is higher than a return on share buyback. And finally, we will return any capital structurally above our CET1 target to shareholders. Moving to Slide 8, where we present our improved outlook for 2025. So far this year, we have added nearly 700,000 mobile primary customers and remain on track to achieve our annual growth target of 1 million in 2025. We have raised our expectation for fee growth and now anticipate fees to come in more than 10% higher than last year. And as a result, we have also increased our outlook for total income, which we now expect to reach around EUR 22.8 billion this year. Prudent expense management remains a key priority. We continue to take proactive measures to operate efficiently while selectively investing for growth. And despite additional incidental expenses this quarter, we continue guiding total costs towards the lower end of the EUR 12.5 billion to EUR 12.7 billion range. As explained earlier, our CET1 target has been updated to around 13%. And given our improved outlook for income and disciplined approach on costs, we have also raised our ROE expectation for this year to more than 12.5%. We will share our outlook for 2026 and revisit our 2027 targets with the fourth quarter results. And now I'll hand over to Tanate, who will walk you through the third quarter financial results in more detail starting on Slide 10. Tanate?
Thank you, Steven. Yes, on Slide 10 shows the development of total income, which has increased further this quarter and was close to the record level we achieved 1 year ago. Commercial NII rose by a strong performance in Wholesale Banking Lending and the conclusion of our promotional campaign -- savings campaign in Retail Banking Germany. These factors more than offset the impact of lower average ECB deposit facility rate and a stronger euro. Fee income continues its upward trend, growing by 15% year-on-year. Most of this growth is structural, which is why we have raised our full year expectations. Finally, all other income, which includes other NII, investment income and other income was supported by continued strong results in financial market and treasury as well as the final dividend payment from our equity stake in Bank of Beijing. Let's discuss Slide 11, where we show the development of our customer balances. We delivered another quarter of strong loan growth across both our Retail and Wholesale Banking. Net core lending increased by EUR 14.2 billion. Retail contributed EUR 8.6 billion of that, driven by continued growth in mortgages and increasing consumer lending portfolio, primarily in Germany, Poland and the Netherlands. Wholesale Banking Lending also posted strong growth as a relatively large number of deals originated early -- in earlier quarters were converted in the third quarter. On the liability side, core deposits declined by around EUR 200 million after significant inflows in prior quarters. The decline was largely attributable to outflows in Germany and Belgium after the conclusion of promotional savings campaign. Wholesale Banking posted a strong inflow, reflecting increased deposit volume in payment and cash management area, financial market and the cash pooling business. On Slide 12, you can see that commercial NII grew quarter-on-quarter. That was -- this increase is particularly strong in Retail Germany's liability NII after the end of the bonus rate for fresh money from a promotional campaign. This was also the main driver behind the 1 basis point improvement in liability margin. Lending NII also in Wholesale Banking Lending, the Lending margin remained stable as the growth in Wholesale Banking Lending offset the impact of continued growth of our residential mortgage portfolio, which deliver higher return on equity but lower average margin. For full year 2025, our outlook liability margin and lending margin is unchanged at around 100 basis points and around 125 basis points, respectively. We expect commercial NII to come in between EUR 15.2 billion and EUR 15.3 billion. It is worth noting that the higher-than-expected NII growth in the third quarter was partly driven by a large number of transactions in the Wholesale Bank, which has been in the pipeline for an extended period of time. Turning to Slide 13. Fee growth remained strong with a 15% increase year-on-year, driven by structural revenue drivers across both Retail and Wholesale Banking. In Retail Banking, growth was supported by a continued rise in mobile primary customer, which boosted daily banking fees. Investment products had a strong quarter, reflecting an increase in the number of investment accounts and higher asset under management. Wholesale Banking delivered a quarterly record fee income of EUR [ 383 ] million, driven by strong performance in lending, supported by a greater number of lead roles, increased loan underwriting activities and higher lending volume. Given the strong performance in the first 9 months of this year, we are confident that we can grow our fee income by more than 10% in 2025. On Slide 14, we show the development of all other income. Income from financial market is mostly driven by client activity. We continue to support our clients through volatile market condition, mostly with FX and interest rate management. Income from our financial stakes this quarter included a final dividend from our stake in Bank of Beijing, while other income also benefited from a gain on sale. Now on to Slide 15. Our expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items rose less than 3% year-on-year, reflecting our prudent approach. The increase was largely reflecting wage inflation and our ongoing investment in business growth and scalability. On the growth side, we continue investing in our customer acquisition and product development, including expanding our offer for new customer segments. Another good example is business banking, where we broaden our product suite and make it easier to digitally onboard customer. In terms of scalability, we focus on enhancing and strengthening our tech platform. At the same time, we are seeing benefits from operational efficiencies, which help offset part of the cost increase. We remain committed to digitizing our services to further strengthen our operational leverage going forward. We're actively integrating generative AI capabilities through our organization. Our GenAI chatbot is now live in 6 markets, providing [indiscernible]. And in consumer finance, we use AI to assist applications and process loan applications automatically. Incidental expenses mostly related to restructuring provisions booking, which are expected to result in EUR 30 million in annualized cost savings once fully implemented. We still expect total expenses to finish at the lower end of the previously guided range. The outlook includes incidental items recorded in the first 9 months whereby continued focus on operational efficiencies will lead to some incidental costs in the fourth quarter. Now let's move on to risk costs on the next slide. Total risk costs were EUR 326 million this quarter, equivalent to 19 basis points of average customer lending, which is below our through-the-cycle average and reflect the quality of our loan growth. Net addition to Stage 3 provision amount to EUR 361 million, mainly due to collective provisioning in Retail Banking and a number of newly defaulted files in Wholesale Banking. The Stage 3 ratio remains stable. Stage 1 and Stage 2 risk cost show a net release of EUR 35 million, mostly reflecting portfolio movements. Overall, we remain confident in the strength and quality of our loan growth. On Slide 17, we show development of our core Tier 1 ratio, which increased compared to last quarter. Core Tier 1 capital increase on the back of strong capital generation, partly offset by dividend reserving and a lower market value of our stake in Bank of Beijing. The total risk-weighted assets broadly stable. Credit risk-weighted assets, excluding FX impact increased by [ EUR 2.2 billion ] mainly due to volume growth. This was partly offset by a change in the profile of the loan book, equity revaluations and various other effects. Operational risk-weighted assets remained flat while market risk-weighted assets decreased by EUR 1.7 billion. The announced additional distribution of EUR 1.6 billion. We have a pro forma impact of 48 basis points on the Core Tier 1 ratio, bringing it more in line with our updated targets. Now I'll hand back to Steven to wrap up today's presentation.
Thanks, Tanate. And before we move to Q&A, let me recap the key takeaways from today's presentation. We delivered another strong quarter, maintaining solid commercial momentum that is fully aligned with our growth strategy and the sustained performance translated into a robust capital generation, enabling attractive shareholder returns while continuing to selectively invest in our business. Today, we announced a EUR 1.6 billion in line with our updated target. Going forward, we remain committed to deploying capital to fuel growth and further enhance returns. And finally, we have improved our outlook for 2025, expecting higher fees, stronger total income and a return on equity above 12.5%. And with that, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. Operator, over to you.
We will now take our first question from Delphine Lee.
My first one is on [ capital. ] Just wondering, as you highlighted in your slides, your CET1 requirements have been going up quite a bit. Do you think we are entering like a phase of stabilization from here? Or could there be more pressure? And on the other hand, do you expect anything on -- is there any hope of that requirement going down maybe on mortgage flow? Is there anything like that, just so we have better visibility on how you run your CET1? And then just on NII and deposits, more generally speaking, the retail deposit options were quite significant this quarter, which there has been some seasonality. Was just wondering a little bit what you're seeing so far in the quarter. And if the trends that you've seen in Q3 in terms of the strength in Wholesale Banking or -- and the liability margin, slight improvement, is there anything that has been confirmed for Q4 so far?
Thank you very much, Delphine. And on capital, yes, we currently do not see additional pressure [ very strong ] on capital. So all the countercyclical buffers and other elements that we could see that could potentially have come and that we have factored into our capital targets. Of course, we continue to talk to supervisors about avoiding duplication or gold plating between different supervisors in different markets. And of course, we also talk about the mortgage floor that could come in, but only in 2032. So that's a long time away, but we'll also talk about that to see if that can be removed, but those discussions are ongoing. Then on deposits, yes, the outflows are -- there was an outflow of about EUR 7 billion in Retail and an inflow of about EUR 7 billion in Wholesale. So our deposits are approximately flat and minus EUR 200 million. What we can see is that these deposit outflows for Retail came from a marketing campaign predominantly in Germany, which ended and that always leads to part of outflows of the marketing campaign money that we got in. So that is that effect. Also, there was a third quarter effect, which is a seasonal effect, which then is the end of the holidays, and during the holidays, people spend more. So typically, with a higher spending pattern at the start of the third quarter, you also see deposits there coming down. So that's typically for this quarter. That is not a pattern that we would expect in the fourth quarter. And to date, if you look at the total deposits, we have an annualized growth in the first 9 months of 6%. So we're happy with our deposit inflows during the year.
And we will now take our next question from Namita Samtani of Barclays.
My first question is, how do you expect your lending margins to grow from 125 bps today to the 125 to 130 bps [ guidance over ] 2026 to 2027, given there's a lot of little private credit competition and many banks offering competitive pricing, especially in wholesale. So any thoughts there would be much appreciated. And secondly, I saw an article on Bloomberg that ING estimated that around 950 positions are at risk in the Netherlands by the end of 2026 as artificial intelligence was rolled out. I know it was just a forecast given to the country's employee insurance agency, but I just wondered why you aren't doing this AI initiative in other countries. For example, the cost income in the Netherlands looks decent compared to Belgium and Australia Retail, where it's 60% to 70%, which looks quite poor.
Thank you, Namita. I'll do the question on the 950 positions, and Tanate will talk about the lending margin. As a matter of fact, this is an announcement that we have to do from the collective -- with a collective announcement. And so this is an estimate that we then officially post with the labor insurance agency as a current estimate of how many jobs will be affected in this country. Now the jobs that are affected are part of it is in Wholesale Banking, as we announced earlier, and parts, it's in our processes such as less manual or personnel work in contact centers and or more digitalization in lending and consumer lending processes. By the way, we do this in the Netherlands, we do this everywhere around the world, so the GenAI chatbot has been rolled out or being rolled out in 6 countries already as an example. But it's just the announcement that we are compulsory to make in this country. It has led to the announcement that is not because we're only doing this in this country, but this pertains employees in this country.
Namita, just on the margin to share mortgage financing in our mix. We do expect that, that will normalize going forward. Also, that's a factor that the funding profile of our mortgage-backed book has cost margin compression, which we expect that to subside over the next few periods and that we do expect return to growth in the Wholesale Banking loan growth, which comes with a higher margin. That's why we do expect that over time, our lending margin will range between 125 and 130 bps.
And we will now take our next question from Tarik El Mejjad of Bank of America.
Two questions from my side. First of all, I would like to come back on the tech investments and AI. I mean, you've been one among those banks that had some AI/ML issues a few years ago as you had to ramp up your FTEs in the KYC and client boarding functions. So have you invested in the meantime in AI in that area? And could that actually -- I know you've already run down a lot of these costs, but is this something you've been investing in, in parallel? And also in terms of embedded AI in products, where you are and what's your thinking is in the future? And then the second question is on capital redeployment. Thanks Steven, you've been very clear about the outlook for where the capital generation goes. That's very, very clear. But in terms of consolidation and M&A, you've been very vocal and transparent about it. What's your -- how your thinking evolved in this current rate environment and where your focus will go?
Thank you, Tarik. Yes, first of all, tech AI investments. I think there are 5 main areas that we currently are deploying or starting to deploy gen AI, and we already work with AI for the last 10 years, but GenAI, which is, let's say, AI on steroids, if you will, there was a clear focus that is coding in the technology space that is lending, that is hyper-personalized marketing, that is contact centers and that is KYC. So for sure, we are investing in digitalizing KYC and also get this supported with AI and GenAI. And that will, of course, also have an impact on our processes and could also indeed have an impact on how we work with our staff. So yes, that could be and -- it is an interesting part of the business where we can use digitalization much more than we did that in the past. When it comes to capital deployment and our thinking on M&A, yes, it has not changed. I think that what we want to do is we want to make more impact and be more relevant in the markets in which we operate. That means that we -- there are in markets or market by market, looking at market segments that we currently do not have, for example, business banking or consumer lending or private banking, wealth management type of activities or we look to increase in size, which has scale benefits. Those are the areas in which we are looking. But of course, it has to make sense from an ROE point of view.
And we will now take our next question from Giulia Miotto of Morgan Stanley.
I will start with one on NII. Tanate, I think I heard you saying that the guide for the year is EUR 15.2 billion to EUR 15.3 billion, which somewhat surprised me because I would have thought it was almost a slam dunk that it would be on the EUR 15.3 billion side of things because I thought NII is improving in the second half specifically in Q4, you've got the benefit from the end of the Belgian campaign. And so I think a [ EUR 3.9 billion ] sort of NII for Q4 was almost in the bag. And I think you'll make some comments around seeing some Wholesale Banking transaction closing in Q3. So I don't know if you can quantify that, if there is any sort of nonrecurring things in Q3 that we should keep in mind. So yes, I would welcome your comments on NII for the rest of the year. And then secondly, there have been quite a few incidentals recently on the cost line. And if I look at the past 5 years, leverage is more or less EUR 200 million a year. Is there something that we should think about as recurring? Or not really -- you plan not to do more going forward?
All right. I give both questions to Tanate starting with NII.
Yes, Giulia. So I think we do have some tailwind coming our way. The ECB rates later today, we'll see what Christine Lagarde say, but I think we see a bottom to the short rates and a positive view curve. So that's a good tailwind. And we do expect that, that will have a positive impact on our NII, not only for '25 but 2026 as well. The reason why we gave a tight guidance of EUR 15.2 billion to EUR 15.3 billion, is the fact that in Q3, we have seen quite a catch-up in the Wholesale Banking NII growth. If you remember in previous quarterly calls, we said that our pipeline in Q1 and Q2 were fairly robust, but customers were not converting them into loans or transactions, and that catch-up has happened in the third quarter in a pretty significant way. So that's why we gave this guidance of between EUR 15.2 billion and EUR 15.3 billion. Now on restructuring provision. It's been our approach that we don't take big major program restructuring provision over multiple years. But we take provision when we have a clear business case, it is concise and that it can be achieved over 12 to 18 months, and that's our policy going forward. That's why we gave a bit of an outlook to the market that we do expect continued efficiency program and that we do expect to take additional restructuring provision for additional efficiencies in Q4.
And we'll now take our next question from Benoit Petrarque of Kepler Cheuvreux.
So first, just as an intro, I just wanted to get your view on the outcome from the Dutch Election. It looks a good -- relatively good outcome [indiscernible] right outcome. So I just wanted to get your view on that. Now the first question is actually on the ROE target. You've upgraded '25 several times. Yet you've kept '27 ROE unchanged. So do you share -- my view at least that there is more confidence in the 14% and potentially upside to the 14%. And just also wanted to check with you if you see the growth momentum currently. Yes, a bit more pronounced than what you were anticipating back in June '25 at the CMD. So that's number one. And number two is on the efficiencies. Again, I think the tech side is looking quite promising. And you just mentioned that the use of digitalization is also much more than in the past. You've put through also restructuring charges in Retail. So I was wondering if all those kind of efficiency gains were embedded in the 3% to 4% OpEx CAGR target back in June '24. Or do you see things a bit accelerating on the efficiency side and the digitalization side?
All right. Thank you for the questions. I will take the question on the elections. Tanate will take the questions on the upside on growth and the efficiency, although I have the feeling that Tanate will say something around we will further update you upon our fourth quarter results 2025, but I'll leave that to him. Regarding the outcome of the elections, yes, look, I mean -- but I'm saying something that you know as well, obviously, is that stability of a government and of a coalition and thereby, a government that can take long-term decisions is good for society, it's good for the economy. I think that the meeting of minds in the previous coalition was not there. And I think that this is a new opportunity to create a coalition that is more stable. I can look more long term. And I'm really hoping for that. Secondly, I think also the parties that are a bit bigger, are more pro Europe. And I think that from a business point of view, it helps to foster international ties. And therefore, it's also good to set it in a European setting, whereby I really think that people should continue to look at continuing and implementing the sales and investment union so that could help here as well. Yes, and I think thirdly, areas around consistency of policy around simplification, but all sustainability would also help. So yes, I think it is good if we get a government that can create longer-term stability.
From CMD, I think we are more confident about our [ 2025 CMD. ] Volumes are better than we planned. Fee growth we have basically upgraded in the last 2, 3 quarters, our ROE guidance for 2025. But I think I'll leave it to February to give you more formal guidance for the coming period. And then on cost reduction program, yes, these are plans which we have an ambition to deliver, and it's in line with our Capital Markets Day guidance.
[Operator Instructions] We'll now move on to our next question from Benjamin Goy of Deutsche Bank.
Two questions also from my side. One is a follow-up on the net interest income, particularly implied for Q4. In Q2, you -- when you gave the guidance, you assumed one more rate cut, which hasn't materialized and might not also not happen today. So wondering whether there is a bit more upside baked into your guidance now as compared to August? And then secondly, on the Wholesale Bank, maybe can you give more color, one, on the loan growth, where is it coming from, countries, which type of product? And then also the newly defaulted files in Wholesale Banking, any trends you can see or industries? Any background would be appreciated.
All right. I will talk about the Wholesale Banking growth. Ljiljana will talk about the risks or risk cost in Wholesale Banking. And Tanate will talk about NII. So on the growth in Wholesale Banking, these are 2 areas. First of all, these are larger underwritings and syndicated loans. So large investments that companies are doing for that they have larger transactions and underwritings that we have been doing with them. We already told you in the previous quarters that the pipelines were strong in Wholesale Banking. So we saw the pipeline is growing, but the conversion into real business was not there, undoubtedly, that had something to do with the certainty in the market. So at least it's a good signal that companies are now investing. Do we -- is that a trend or not? That goes a bit too far for today, but at least it's good that companies are starting to invest and that has led to a larger underwriting business and related lending fees, and that you also see in the fees coming through. And the second area in that economic activity, you see that also in trade financial services. So those have been the areas of growth in Wholesale Banking, leading to around EUR 5.5 billion growth in the Wholesale Banking next to the around EUR 6.5 billion, EUR 7 billion growth in Retail Banking and mortgages. Then we go to risk, yes.
Yes, you've seen the third quarter risk cost in general. We're at slightly below the cycle or at the cycle with 19 bps, let me say, and the same is also valued for the Wholesale Bank specifically. So if you're looking at Wholesale Bank, they're slightly below through the cycle average and the majority of provisions correctly comes from the S3 provisions or Stage 3 provisions. However, they are higher than previous quarter, but they are lower and significantly lower if you're looking at the third quarter '24. So if we are looking at the newly defaulted cases, I cannot say I see a specific sector-wide pattern. What we've observed are actually more a result of idiosyncratic events at certain clients rather than systemic observations. Needless to say, we remain vigilant because despite the global economy doing a bit better than we expect, there are still uncertainty around how the economic policy, specifically tariffs and regulation deflux will impact it going forward. So far, so good, I would say.
And then on rates, Ben, I think the reduction in rates has no material impact on our 2025 financials. And I would refer you to the replication impact of the forward curve that we provided on Page 24 that you see that it has a positive impact in '26 and '27, but immaterial for '25.
And we'll now take our next question from Shrey of Citi.
Just on your 13% CET1 ratio target, you're obviously at 12.9% this quarter, pro forma for the distributions you announced. Looking forward, did you look to ask below this number on an interim results basis? And sort of what's the leeway within that circa 13% number?
Good spot. So indeed, we are comfortable with dipping into it a little bit. So this is what it shows today. So it is indeed around target, and I don't want to mathematically, every day of the week, be at 13%. It will be around that number. And you can see now that now it is 12.9%, so it's a bit below it. And what we then say is that what we say is that we have a structural capital excess over 13%, then we call it an excess, and then we will look at distribution.
And we'll now take our next question from Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs.
Just to begin with some Q4 housekeeping. The EUR 30 million of annualized cost savings you flag on Slide 15, when do you expect those to be fully implemented? And then are there any reasons why fees would be down year-over-year in the fourth quarter? Just even if I assume flat, then I'm going to get to a full year number result of 4.6% and 4.4% on fees. And then second, on the strategy, there's a link obviously between deposit campaigns, the customer retention and then fee growth. Do you get a sense of that connection is that the strategy is becoming more predictable or more lucrative? And maybe on the other hand, if you look at what's coming in Germany, the more demand for borrowing, maybe a greater need across the banking sector for funding and liquidity in that market to kind of react to that borrowing demand, maybe a more competitive deposit landscape. Does that change at all the economics for ING of the deposit campaign pipe strategy in Germany?
All right. On the EUR 30 million cost savings, that will feed through in 2026 per annum. Then is there any reason for the fees to go down in the fourth quarter? Now that depends on economic activity. So you've seen the growth in our fees has been 75% alpha. Of course, we saw a very strong lending fee in Wholesale Banking because of the -- let's say, the execution or the conversion of the pipeline. So yes, there we need to see what is the level of activity, but we remain confident on our fee growth. And that's why we said the fee growth for the year will be higher than 10% rather than at the higher end of the 5% to 10% range. And then yes, just correct me if I understood your question in the wrong way, but you are wondering if there's a connection between growth in lending and in fees, and if there's more competition deposits, that's how I translate your question. Was that your question?
Basically. If you think about your deposit has a loss-leading product to generate fee growth in the future. So you've got to think about the deposit cost as the investment of the ROI. So just this deposit costs do climb up. At what point do you think about revisiting the size and the scale of that [indiscernible] campaign?
Yes. Well, I mean -- look, I mean, we see deposits as a -- not as a loss leader. Deposits, in general, make money for us. And that's why you've seen that we started many years ago as ING direct in many countries as a savings and deposit bank. Now if you talk specifically about the deposits that we are doing in Germany or elsewhere, a campaign can either be aimed at fresh money and that should show a positive payback of in between 6 and 12 months, so that's to existing customers and new money for existing customers. And if you look at campaigns that are aimed at new-to-bank customers, those typically have a payback period of 2 to 3 years. Now we have these -- done these type of actions and campaigns for decades. They're highly data-driven, which means we can really monitor who do we target at, how much money will stay in the bank, how much business do they do with us afterwards. And we apply continuously these learnings going forward. And of course, these campaigns, with all the data that we have now, will become much more targeted and much more specific, but it's one of the success factors of ING, and we will continue to do so.
And we will now take our next question from Anke Reingen of RBC.
Just very small questions. Given that -- do you think you have more potential for cutting your deposit rates given that it seems rates have sort like plateaued? And just on the lending margin, is it basically fair to assume it will decline in Q4, given your comment about the Q3 benefit in Wholesale Banking? And I'm sorry, just a small follow-up question. In terms of your capital update, you said next update is in Q1. But just to confirm, we should assume you keep the same cadence as Q1 or Q3 updates.
Yes. So let me confirm that indeed what I indeed meant in my presentation that in terms of capital distribution or how we look at our capital, that will be the 6 months update intervals that we have. So end of Q1 figures, end of Q3 figures as we have done today. Tanate, lending margins and deposit rates?
Yes. Deposit rates. I think it's a balance, right? We don't give forward statement on rate cuts or commercial action, but it's a balance between volume growth, competition and profitability. And I think we give our continued outlook that liability margin will remain at around 100 basis points for this year and rise to between 100 to 110 in 2026 and onwards. So that's on rate cuts. And sorry, your second question?
It was just fair to assume the lending margin declined in Q4 given your [indiscernible] comment.
Got it. I think that really depends on Wholesale Banking and Retail Banking activity, mortgage mix, Wholesale Banking loans. But I think our outlook is that margin on lending will remain flat at around 125 basis points.
And we'll now take our next question from Farquhar Murray of Autonomous.
I had 2 questions, if I may. Firstly, on the recent Board appointments. So I just wondered if you might flesh out the reasonings behind those, [indiscernible] and Ida Lerner and the actual term. Strategically, I'd expect probably a lot of continuity. But I just wondered if there might be any nuances we should read into those appointments in terms of skill sets for the future. I'm sure Ljiljana might actually have views to express of her own. And then secondly, on the increased CET1 target. Could I ask how those will be cascaded down into the businesses? And in particular, will that be incrementally priced into lending rates?
Thank you. Very good. Nice question about the change of the Board positions. And yes, Ljiljana is sitting next to me. So I will not say anything else than nice words, obviously. But joking aside, I mean, Ljiljana has done and is doing a fantastic job in the risk domain and has not only good experience in risk, but also good experience in wholesale banking from -- in her previous life and knows organization because she has now been with us for 5 years. And I think that with Andrew moving on to the nonexecutive phase of his life, I think I'm very happy with Ljiljana in that post to continuously drive the strategy that we have in Wholesale Banking and also further increase the capital efficiency and the ROE improvements that we wanted to make in. When it comes to Ida, Ida is a very experienced CFO in a European -- a large European bank with also end risk and wholesale banking experience. So very broad-based. And I think she will be an excellent fit also giving external -- outside perspectives to ING to further improve and focus on our cost discipline that we have here in the bank and help me with potential M&A if we come across it. So that's the background of those candidates.
Now on the capital targets, you would have noticed that even in our third quarter results, the divisional ROE is now based on 13% of risk-weighted assets, so that will be communicated more widely to our teams. But I think we also look when we adjust to 13% at many of our Wholesale Banking peers also operate at around 13%. So we don't expect a competitive disadvantage of this new target materially in the Wholesale Bank.
And we'll now take our next question from Matthew Clark of Mediobanca.
A couple of questions on -- well, one question on the 2 deposit campaigns and your retention rates there. So it looks from the German campaign that you retained less than your normal 2/3 rule of thumb. Could you confirm that? And then also on the Belgium campaign, can you just confirm whether -- with both of them, you've got the return on investment that you expected that the -- whether there's anything to learn from those campaigns?
On the retention rates where it was lower, we have sometimes said that we typically retain about 2/3 of the money, and that is not different this time around. So -- and that goes for both campaigns, actually. Also in Belgium, we expect a strong return on investment. We -- there's a good retention and now a number of these customers are turning into primary customers. So actually, that was a very successful campaign.
And we'll now take our next question from Cyril of BNP Paribas.
I have 2, if I may. So one on fee growth. So the second upgrade in guidance we have for this year. So it does look like the momentum is quite strong and resilient. And I'm just wondering what elements of that momentum that we can take and extrapolate maybe into next year? And the second would be on SRTs. I know we have a transaction planned for Q4. And do we have any visibility on any other transaction maybe for 2026?
All right. On fee growth. Well, it starts with growth in customers. So if we have more primary mobile customers, then we have more customers that do more with us because primary customers typically are customers that choose ING as their main or one of their main banks. And so we have been growing our customer base, again, with about 200,000 new primary customers. If you -- it was 1.1 million, we aim for about 1 million per year. So we're well on track to do this year as well. That's one. Two, we are increasing the activities with our customers. So you have seen that on investment products that more and more customers taking a trade account with ING that is currently around 4.6 million people who trade with ING. Every quarter -- I say it was 4.4 million and was 4.2 million. So every quarter, we add about 100,000 to 200,000 new customers who trade with ING. And then that's very good. But the better thing is even that we have over 40 million clients. So you can only imagine how big the upside is. And we are now focusing on the segment much more than we did that a few years ago. [indiscernible] in the fee bar chart that you see on the pages, that's also growing steadily, and that's an annuity type of business. So there are -- we broadened up our activities with our customers. And therefore, you see that 75%, if you will, of the fee growth that we see typically is alpha driven, and we are very comfortable with the momentum that we have. That's also why we updated our fee growth for the year and we are very confident to make the 2027 5% -- [ EUR 5 billion ] target for that year.
Thank you, Cyril. Just on capital discipline. I think if you look at 2025 Q3, we saw for the Wholesale Bank, despite the volume growth, the capital usage or risk-weighted asset was almost flat, indicating strong capital discipline and capital velocity in the Wholesale Bank. And yes, we are in dialogue with our regulator to get the final approval for our SRT in Q4. We do expect that transaction to be done and it would have a roughly 10% -- sorry, 10 basis point positive impact on our core Tier 1.
And we'll now take our next question from Seamus Murphy of Carraighill.
Two questions, please. Can you just briefly talk about the expected evolution of full-time employees? Because when I look at the quarterly numbers, I mean, we're up to 63,000 now, I think, in Q3, that's kind of up 5,500 since the start of this rate cycle, and we're up again significantly year-to-date. I think it's up another 1,500. But I appreciate the question earlier in relation to the savings that could emerge from internal innovation. But should we continue to expect the net growth in FTEs into 2027 because just the pace of FTEs kind of is -- continues to surprise, especially with the average salaries around [ EUR 120,000 ]. That would be great. And secondly, just on NII. At your CMD, you spoke about this 4% to 5% growth in total income of EUR 22 billion base, which would have given us about EUR 25.5 billion at the top end in '27. And you had guided fee growth, which is obviously stronger and the other income, which we assume could be broadly flat. But when I think about NII, we have a much more beneficial rate curve now versus then. And so I suppose when we think about it, the real kind of issue so far has been the fact that the deposit [ beta ] has risen significantly into 2025 in your retail eurozone area. I think it's about 44% still. So I'm just kind of wondering what -- is there something going on in terms of the dynamic in terms of the deposit pricing that we should think about? I mean, I know you've got 110 basis points of deposit margin in -- next year, sorry, early into '27. But certainly, it seems to be relative to CMD with a much more beneficial rate curve that NII should have been an awful lot higher. And I'm just wondering, does this inflect significantly into '27 to meet kind of like what you would have expected the CMD? Or how should we think about that?
Thank you very much. In terms of the FTEs, yes, what you see, I think, on the press release is the internal number, and so you can never look at in isolation. You have the internal FTEs and you have the external FTEs then you have the work packages. That is how you get to your cost. And so -- but to give you a little bit of indication of that, our total internal and external FTEs in this year have been around flattish and we have more internalized FTEs, and that's why you see that number moving up. In the end, we look at investing in businesses to grow our business and increase our revenue over RWA with the right return. And we want to do that in a scalable manner so make sure that we have positive jaws, and that's where we are, we want to go to. So that's how we look at costs and how doing these actions and efficiency actions that also Tanate talked about. In terms of your growth in fees and the NII levels that could potentially be higher based on the current rate environment and the growth in our lending, so it's well noted. Thank you for noticing it. We will provide further updates on our outlook as per the fourth quarter figures in early 2026. Thank you. And with that, I would like to thank everybody for joining the call this morning. Good luck and a great day. I wish you, and I hope to speak to you soon again. In any case, we will speak early 2026 on the fourth quarter figures. Thank you very much.
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-08-05Treasuries Tack Onto Historic Gain Ahead of Quarterly Auctions
Bloomberg
Treasuries Tack Onto Historic Gain Ahead of Quarterly Auctions
(Bloomberg) -- US Treasuries, coming off their best day so far this year on Friday, held onto most of the move to start a week featuring a heavy slate of note and bond auctions. Most Read from Bloomberg PATH Train Service Resumes After Fire at Jersey City Station Chicago Curbs Hiring, Travel to Tackle $1 Billion Budget Hole Mayor Asked to Explain $1.4 Billion of Wasted Johannesburg Funds Seeking Relief From Heat and Smog, Cities Follow the Wind Yields on longer-dated bonds settled two basis points lower Monday afternoon in New York, while shorter-dated yields were little changed. Earlier, they fell to session lows on a slump in the price of crude oil. Trading was choppy following a rally on Friday that sent an index of Treasuries to its biggest one-day gain since late 2023 as weak employment data stoked conviction the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. “Negative surprises like the July employment report usually move markets over many days and possibly many weeks,” Morgan Stanley interest-rate strategists said in a report. They continue to recommend a long position in five-year Treasury debt, whose yield tumbled 22 basis points Friday, its biggest drop in a year. The biggest week of Treasury note and bond sales since May could weigh on prices, though, as the US is set to auction $125 billion of new three-, 10- and 30-year debt. That helped slow momentum after Friday’s surge, which was aided by persistent speculation Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone more willing to aggressively cut interest rates. Investors see around 85% odds that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter point in September, based on swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. While that’s down from Friday’s peak of 90%, it was around 40% before the payroll data was published. “Markets are signaling that the Fed will have to look through any tariff-induced price rises and that a September cut is imminent,” ING Groep NV strategists including Benjamin Schroeder wrote in a note. “The curve can steepen significantly more from here if that narrative strengthens.” The market ructions at the end of the week came as traders were forced out of bets on at least stable interest rates. After Wednesday’s expected Fed decision to hold rates steady, they’d been cautious about betting on more cuts, especially after comments from Powell citing continued uncertainty around ta...
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-08-02ING Groep Second Quarter 2025 Earnings: Beats Expectations
Simply Wall St.
ING Groep Second Quarter 2025 Earnings: Beats Expectations
Revenue: €9.73b (up 40% from 2Q 2024). Net income: €2.46b (down 14% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 25% (down from 42% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. EPS: €0.82 (down from €0.88 in 2Q 2024). This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 9.9%. Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 8.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Banks industry in Europe. Performance of the market in the Netherlands. The company's shares are down 3.1% from a week ago. Before we wrap up, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ING Groep that you should be aware of. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

