IDYA

IDEAYA BiosciencesA

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-07-18

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$58.00

+61.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$44.00

+22.2% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$24.00

-33.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-07-02

AI commentary

Primary-source support is strong for the May operating update, but the broader packet has no trusted recent-news set, no usable analyst revision trail, and no meaningful social coverage. Combined with the deterministic prior that remains negative over 20-120 day windows, the setup reads as cautious H2 2026 catalyst monitoring rather than a high-conviction momentum long.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-02

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-09-30eventDarovasertib NDA filing path in H2 2026High impact

Q1 2026 company materials said the Phase 2/3 OptimUM-02 trial met its primary endpoint, the FDA agreed to Real-Time Oncology Review, and IDEAYA is targeting NDA completion in H2 2026 for potential U.S. accelerated approval in 1L HLA*A2-negative metastatic uveal melanoma [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05].

2026-09-30eventHLA*A2-positive mUM data update could broaden darovasertib use caseHigh impact

IDEAYA said it completed enrollment of about 100 HLA*A2-positive mUM patients in OptimUM-01 and plans a H2 2026 data presentation from more than 85 efficacy-evaluable patients, with the update intended to support potential label expansion and/or guideline inclusion [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05].

2026-12-31catalystBroader pipeline readouts and registrational starts can extend value beyond the lead assetHigh impact

Management flagged H2 2026 clinical updates for IDE849 and IDE034, mid-2026 combination work for IDE892 plus IDE397, and a planned registrational IDE849 monotherapy trial start by year-end 2026, giving IDYA multiple shots on goal but also raising execution complexity [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-07-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology