B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ICFI
ICF InternationalCNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-print argument is that the quarter looked more like a timing and mix issue than a broken demand story: management reaffirmed full-year growth guidance, federal revenue improved sequentially, international government revenue grew 17.5% year over year, adjusted EBITDA margin held at 11.2%, and awards/backlog stayed supportive [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.1.
What can break
ICF ended Q1 with about $439.2 million of debt and depends on its credit facility for liquidity, even though it remained covenant-compliant and had $512.4 million of unused revolving capacity [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
77
Value
65
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $107.25
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -5.8
Value65 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +5.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ICF ended Q1 with about $439.2 million of debt and depends on its credit facility for liquidity, even though it remained covenant-compliant and had $512.4 million of unused revolving capacity [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Q1 revenue and EPS missed expectations, and management still has to recover roughly $12 million of shifted work to defend the full-year guide [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • The bearish read is that the market treated Q1 as another proof-of-execution gap: revenue fell to $437.5 million and non-GAAP EPS to $1.50, while MarketBeat showed both below consensus and the shares closed at $69.61 on May 8 versus the $74.50 packet anchor from May 7.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q2 must show recovery of the delayed Q1 project work without breaking full-year guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
-6.0
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
+4.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 77.4 / Value 64.8 / Sentiment 50.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.55B
Beta
0.43
Shares Out
17.93M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
0.85
P/FCF (TTM)
12.53
Rev YoY
-0.3%
EPS YoY
+16.5%
Gross Margin
+34.1%
Op Margin
+8.1%
Net Debt
$518.06M
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data