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IBP

Installed Building ProductsC
NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 record revenue result, commercial growth, acquisition contribution, $394.5 million cash balance, and continued dividends and repurchases indicate multiple growth and capital-return levers despite housing weakness. The deterministic prior is positive, with a 9.95% expected 120-day return and strong evidence quality.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
What can break
A director sold 1,086 shares at $237.06 on September 3; the isolated transaction is not an operating signal but may add modest headline sensitivity. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-08]
Momentum
19
Value
52
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $224.00 · Bull $255.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-05 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $212.86
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +0.2
Value52 · Δ7d -1.3
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -4.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director sold 1,086 shares at $237.06 on September 3; the isolated transaction is not an operating signal but may add modest headline sensitivity. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-08]
  • • Acquisition-led growth may obscure softness in the core installation business and creates integration and return-on-capital risk.
  • • Core installation revenue declined 0.7%, and management expects affordability and consumer confidence to keep pressuring U.S.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · BMO

Quarterly execution could validate operating resilience

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-12.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 18.6 / Value 52.4 / Sentiment 64.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$224.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$5.31B
Beta
1.93
Shares Out
26.58M
P/E (TTM)
29.5
P/S (TTM)
2.50
P/FCF (TTM)
34.27
Rev YoY
+2.3%
EPS YoY
-3.5%
Gross Margin
+32.2%
Op Margin
+12.5%
Net Debt
$669.8M
Current Ratio
2.98
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data