B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$188.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HWKN
HawkinsANasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest bull read is that fiscal 2026 crossed $1 billion of revenue, Water Treatment grew 22%, adjusted EBITDA rose 6%, operating cash flow rose 30%, and management still guided qualitatively to fiscal 2027 revenue, operating income, and EPS growth while targeting lower leverage [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Acquisition-related amortization, interest expense, and earnout accretion reduced Q4 and full-year EPS despite revenue growth [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Momentum
11
Value
52
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $170.00 · Bull $188.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $174.25
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d +5.2
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition-related amortization, interest expense, and earnout accretion reduced Q4 and full-year EPS despite revenue growth [#8-K-2026-05-13].
- • Analyst coverage and confirmed post-print revision data appear limited, increasing the risk of valuation signals being noisy rather than decisive.
- • The bear read is that reported EPS still declined despite record sales because acquisition costs, amortization, interest expense, and earnout accounting remain heavy, while Food & Health Sciences was flat to down with competitive pricing pressure; delayed or absent analyst upgrades after the print keeps conviction muted.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-13
Post-earnings reset hinges on Water Treatment growth offsetting acquisition EPS drag
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 11.4 / Value 51.7 / Sentiment 84.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.75B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
20.88M
P/E (TTM)
37.7
P/S (TTM)
3.00
P/FCF (TTM)
49.35
Rev YoY
+7.6%
EPS YoY
-3.4%
Gross Margin
+22.3%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
$257.54M
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data