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HWKN

HawkinsB
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
All three segments grew in fiscal Q1, with approximately 5% organic growth, $23.5 million of free cash flow and management's expectation of debt reduction during fiscal 2027. Margin recovery would make that growth more valuable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
What can break
Director Yi “Faith” Tang resigned effective August 13; the company said the departure was not due to a disagreement over operations, policies or practices. This is a governance monitoring item, not evidence of an operating problem. [#8-K-2026-08-14]
Momentum
77
Value
51
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $140.00 · Bull $165.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $172.75
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +8.3
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Director Yi “Faith” Tang resigned effective August 13; the company said the departure was not due to a disagreement over operations, policies or practices. This is a governance monitoring item, not evidence of an operating problem. [#8-K-2026-08-14]
  • • Fiscal Q1 gross profit rose only 2% on 8% revenue growth; the company cited LIFO and unrecovered freight costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Despite record revenue, gross margin declined and EPS fell from $1.40 to $1.35.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26 · AMC

Next reported quarter tests organic growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
+24.7
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-10.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 77.5 / Value 50.9 / Sentiment 59.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.76B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
20.88M
P/E (TTM)
37.7
P/S (TTM)
3.00
P/FCF (TTM)
49.35
Rev YoY
+7.6%
EPS YoY
-3.4%
Gross Margin
+22.3%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
$257.54M
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data