B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$450.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HUM
HumanaCNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 operating metrics were constructive, adjusted guidance was maintained, MA membership growth remains strong, CenterWell added 130,900 patients year to date, and the Illinois Medicaid contract supports longer-term growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-30.
What can break
FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance was cut despite maintained adjusted guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
83
Value
59
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $410.21 · Bull $450.00 · Bear $320.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
11 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-06 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-31 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-30
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $460.46
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -1.8
Value59 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
11Non-qualifying2026-11-06 bmo
Humana's primary IR estimate table showed near-flat Q3 EPS revisions and a credible consensus source provides EPS and revenue estimates, but the stock weakened into the event and underperformed the rising XLV. Medical-cost and Medicare policy uncertainty remain material, while recent tape did not confirm accumulation.
Screen as of 2026-10-31. Window 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-06.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-30.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-06 · BMO.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 11 / non-qualifying.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance was cut despite maintained adjusted guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Medical and pharmacy cost trends remain elevated, with stored earnings context indicating 7%–8% all-in 2026 trend and modestly higher drug trend expected for 2027. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-30]
- • GAAP FY2026 EPS guidance was reduced to at least $6.52 from at least $8.36 while adjusted guidance held at at least $9.00.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-06 · BMO
Q2 2026 results reaffirm adjusted outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
-8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 82.6 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 47.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$410.21
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$320.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-28
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$49.46B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
120.08M
P/E (TTM)
25.8
P/S (TTM)
0.26
P/FCF (TTM)
29.67
Rev YoY
+26.2%
EPS YoY
+26.9%
Gross Margin
+14.0%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$8.74B
Current Ratio
1.74
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data