B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HRB
H&R BlockCNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive view: the May 6, 2026 SEC-filed earnings release showed a clean beat, raised fiscal 2026 outlook, better assisted-channel share trends, and incremental repurchase support. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.4.
What can break
Cost risk: Q3 operating expenses rose 4.8%, primarily from higher field wages, so margin expansion could narrow if wage pressure persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
91
Value
68
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.50 · Bull $41.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.67
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -4.2
Value68 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d +14.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cost risk: Q3 operating expenses rose 4.8%, primarily from higher field wages, so margin expansion could narrow if wage pressure persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
- • Durability risk: the thesis still relies on next-season confirmation that assisted-share gains and higher-complexity mix are sustainable rather than one-season specific.
- • The strongest quarterly EPS figure included a one-time non-cash tax benefit, and the main forward question is whether higher-complexity client momentum and assisted-share gains hold into the next season; secondary coverage also noted downward estimate revisions after the print, which tempers conviction.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q3 beat-and-raise reset the near-term narrative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-5.3
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
43
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.4
Δ21d
+12.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 91.5 / Value 68.4 / Sentiment 43.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.18B
Beta
0.36
Shares Out
123.27M
P/E (TTM)
9.7
P/S (TTM)
1.47
P/FCF (TTM)
14.81
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+4.5%
Gross Margin
+44.3%
Op Margin
+23.9%
Net Debt
$1.12B
Current Ratio
1.13
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data