B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HRB
H&R BlockCNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive view: the May 6, 2026 SEC-filed earnings release showed a clean beat, raised fiscal 2026 outlook, better assisted-channel share trends, and incremental repurchase support. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Cost risk: Q3 operating expenses rose 4.8%, primarily from higher field wages, so margin expansion could narrow if wage pressure persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
82
Value
68
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.50 · Bull $41.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.67
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +13.8
Value68 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -5.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cost risk: Q3 operating expenses rose 4.8%, primarily from higher field wages, so margin expansion could narrow if wage pressure persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
- • Durability risk: the thesis still relies on next-season confirmation that assisted-share gains and higher-complexity mix are sustainable rather than one-season specific.
- • The strongest quarterly EPS figure included a one-time non-cash tax benefit, and the main forward question is whether higher-complexity client momentum and assisted-share gains hold into the next season; secondary coverage also noted downward estimate revisions after the print, which tempers conviction.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q3 beat-and-raise reset the near-term narrative
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.8
Δ21d
+44.8
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.4
Δ21d
-23.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 81.8 / Value 67.7 / Sentiment 34.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$5.88B
Beta
0.36
Shares Out
122.49M
P/E (TTM)
9.7
P/S (TTM)
1.47
P/FCF (TTM)
14.81
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+4.5%
Gross Margin
+44.3%
Op Margin
+23.9%
Net Debt
$1.12B
Current Ratio
1.13
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data