B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
HP
Helmerich PayneCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
HP outperforms if North American onshore dayrates and utilization recover materially and the company executes fleet modernization with margin expansion. Stronger-than-expected contract wins and continued cost control would drive above-consensus cash flow and justify upside to the bull target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Commodity-price-driven capex cuts among customers
Momentum
87
Value
57
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $33.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $44.80
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d -5.6
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commodity-price-driven capex cuts among customers
- • Execution delays in fleet modernization
- • Weakness in US onshore activity, delayed rig-count recovery, or execution setbacks on fleet modernization would pressure utilization and margins.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-09
Next quarterly earnings report (assumed window end)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-5.6
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.8
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 87.2 / Value 57.3 / Sentiment 47.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.47B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
99.94M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
57.0
P/S (TTM)
0.82
P/FCF (TTM)
193.70
Rev YoY
-0.6%
EPS YoY
-145.3%
Gross Margin
+10.5%
Op Margin
+2.7%
Net Debt
$1.96B
Current Ratio
1.96
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data