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HOMB

Home BancSharesB
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
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Current thesis
Record Q3 net income, a 4.53% net interest margin and a 16.7% CET1 ratio support earnings resilience and capital returns. Management said nine-month adjusted earnings of $380 million keep its $500 million annual goal in view.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Mountain Commerce integration benefits remain prospective, and execution costs or weaker acquired-loan performance could dilute them. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
Momentum
53
Value
58
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $32.00 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-10-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $32.75
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +8.1
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Mountain Commerce integration benefits remain prospective, and execution costs or weaker acquired-loan performance could dilute them. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
  • • Nonperforming assets increased to 1.02% of assets from 0.93% sequentially; a delayed credit resolution or higher provision could offset margin and buyback benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-14]
  • • Net revenue declined sequentially from $295.1 million to $288.4 million, loans fell $216.6 million during Q3, and nonperforming assets rose to 1.02% of assets from 0.93%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-14

Mixed Q3 results continue to be digested

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+3.8
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-18.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 53.1 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 56.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.02B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
200.05M
P/E (TTM)
12.2
P/S (TTM)
5.17
P/FCF (TTM)
27.98
Rev YoY
+5.4%
EPS YoY
-1.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+42.4%
Net Debt
$732.88M
Current Ratio
0.26
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data