B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HNST
HonestDNasdaq / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 showed better underlying quality than the headline suggests: organic revenue was positive, tracked channel consumption outgrew categories, gross margin hit a record, cash increased to $90.4 million, debt stayed at zero, and management still reaffirmed the full-year framework [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Diaper revenue declined again, leaving Honest more reliant on wipes and personal care to carry the model.
Momentum
46
Value
48
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.60 · Bull $4.60 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.20
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d -6.8
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Diaper revenue declined again, leaving Honest more reliant on wipes and personal care to carry the model.
- • Low analyst coverage and limited visible post-earnings target revisions reduce external confirmation and keep the setup lower-conviction.
- • The bearish read is that reported revenue still fell 19.7%, adjusted EBITDA declined to $4.0 million from $6.9 million, diaper weakness persists, and the turnaround still depends on a narrow set of growth platforms proving durable while tariffs remain a live cost headwind [#8-K-2026-05-06][#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-08
Q1 earnings digestion around reaffirmed FY2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
46
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-23.0
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
37
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+2.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 46.0 / Value 47.9 / Sentiment 36.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$505.31M
Beta
2.29
Shares Out
107.28M
P/E (TTM)
42.9
P/S (TTM)
0.77
P/FCF (TTM)
290.81
Rev YoY
-10.9%
EPS YoY
+178.8%
Gross Margin
+36.3%
Op Margin
-2.4%
Net Debt
-$75.62M
Current Ratio
3.94
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data