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HMY

Harmony Gold MiningC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The company is demonstrating strong operating leverage to gold prices, with 9MFY26 revenue up 34%, free cash flow up 87%, a return to net cash, and management still on track for full-year gold and copper guidance [#IR-2026-05-18]. Copper integration and Eva Copper add a second growth leg if execution stays on schedule.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-13.
What can break
A retreat in gold prices would quickly compress cash-flow leverage because the recent operating strength was heavily supported by elevated realized prices [#IR-2026-03-09][#IR-2026-05-18].
Momentum
88
Value
57
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
12 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $12.50Analysis 2026-05-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $25.28
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -1.8
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -3.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-13.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A retreat in gold prices would quickly compress cash-flow leverage because the recent operating strength was heavily supported by elevated realized prices [#IR-2026-03-09][#IR-2026-05-18].
  • • Another safety incident or regulatory action could interrupt production and hurt sentiment, given the March 26 Target 1 fatality and the Q3 loss of life at Moab Khotsong [#PR-2026-03-26][#IR-2026-05-18].
  • • The main downside remains execution and safety risk, not demand: the Target 1 fatality and Q3 loss of life at Moab Khotsong underscore operational fragility, while future returns remain highly sensitive to gold-price normalization and any integration slip at CSA [#PR-2026-03-26][#IR-2026-05-18].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-18

9MFY26 operational update supports near-term monitoring

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-4.5
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
+14.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 87.7 / Value 57.1 / Sentiment 54.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-27
Market Cap
$12.66B
Beta
1.67
Shares Out
624.84M
P/E (TTM)
14.8
P/S (TTM)
2.92
P/FCF (TTM)
24.84
Rev YoY
+22.7%
EPS YoY
+147.0%
Gross Margin
+41.3%
Op Margin
+39.1%
Net Debt
-$605.36M
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data