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HLMN

Hillman SolutionsB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Hillman is executing against its growth plan: Q2 delivered nearly 10% sales growth, healthy free cash flow, new Pro-channel wins, and continued Minute Key 3.5 rollout. Kanebridge could broaden industrial distribution and add cross-selling potential.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.4.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, options positioning, short interest, and social sentiment are unavailable in the packet.
Momentum
37
Value
64
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.00 · Bull $10.00 · Bear $5.80Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.43
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -23.7
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -9.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, options positioning, short interest, and social sentiment are unavailable in the packet.
  • • Demand, margin execution, and the expected contribution from recent acquisitions remain forward-looking and unvalidated.
  • • The principal downside is execution rather than a demonstrated operating deterioration: Kanebridge still requires closing and integration, while the balance sheet already carries $665.4 million of net debt and 2.4x net leverage.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 results and raised FY2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-23.7
Δ21d
-26.8
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+4.8
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
-29.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 37.0 / Value 64.3 / Sentiment 72.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.72B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
194.55M
P/E (TTM)
49.3
P/S (TTM)
1.19
P/FCF (TTM)
44.53
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
+34.0%
Gross Margin
+38.9%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$722.3M
Current Ratio
2.71
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data