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HLMN

Hillman SolutionsB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales growth, higher guidance, and the completed Kanebridge acquisition support a cautiously positive operating case if new business wins and industrial distribution translate into sustained cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#8-K-2026-09-03]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Failure to deliver raised sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance or the $105–$115 million free-cash-flow range would weaken the thesis. Hillman Q2 release
Momentum
38
Value
65
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.40 · Bull $9.00 · Bear $5.40Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.75
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d +5.9
Value65 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Failure to deliver raised sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance or the $105–$115 million free-cash-flow range would weaken the thesis. Hillman Q2 release
  • • Kanebridge integration, cross-selling, and acquisition returns remain unproven despite the completed closing. [#8-K-2026-09-03]
  • • Adjusted EPS was unchanged year over year despite sales growth, while acquisition integration and added borrowing could constrain returns.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Q2 growth and raised 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
+18.7
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
-12.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 38.4 / Value 65.1 / Sentiment 56.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.4B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
194.55M
P/E (TTM)
49.3
P/S (TTM)
1.19
P/FCF (TTM)
44.53
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
+34.0%
Gross Margin
+38.9%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$722.3M
Current Ratio
2.71
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data