B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HLLY
HolleyANYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 growth across the core portfolio, improving profitability, free cash flow, deleveraging, and portfolio simplification could support a recovery if sustained into the second half [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-12].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -20.3.
What can break
Demand normalization may stall after distributor-inventory and weather-related headwinds.
Momentum
73
Value
66
Sentiment
88
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.60 · Bull $4.60 · Bear $2.30Analysis 2026-09-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.58
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -7.8
Value66 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment88 · Δ7d -20.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -20.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Demand normalization may stall after distributor-inventory and weather-related headwinds.
- • Low coverage and unavailable analyst revisions limit confidence in forward estimates and rerating potential.
- • The improvement may reflect normalization from temporary headwinds rather than durable acceleration.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 returned to growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
-2.1
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.5
Sentiment
88
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-20.3
Δ21d
-23.2
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 72.9 / Value 65.7 / Sentiment 87.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$366.43M
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
120.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
19.0
P/S (TTM)
0.83
P/FCF (TTM)
32.79
Rev YoY
+3.2%
EPS YoY
-122.3%
Gross Margin
+40.8%
Op Margin
+14.3%
Net Debt
$519.95M
Current Ratio
3.06
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data