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HLLY

HolleyA
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained core growth, retail distribution gains and free-cash-flow-funded deleveraging could improve the equity case. Q2 operating cash flow was $47.1 million and free cash flow was $40.9 million, though those figures alone do not establish a durable run rate.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Debt reduction and the below-3.5x year-end leverage target depend on continued free cash flow; the retail rollout's financial contribution remains undisclosed. Holley debt-prepayment release Holley retail-placement release
Momentum
73
Value
65
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.55 · Bull $3.50 · Bear $1.65Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.58
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -16.6
Value65 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +7.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt reduction and the below-3.5x year-end leverage target depend on continued free cash flow; the retail rollout's financial contribution remains undisclosed. Holley debt-prepayment release Holley retail-placement release
  • • Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 19.6% from 21.9%; sales growth may not translate into operating leverage. SEC-filed Q2 release
  • • Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $33.8 million from $36.4 million despite sales growth, and adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

November 5 third-quarter results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-16.6
Δ21d
-7.7
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
+10.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 72.9 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 63.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$299.15M
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
120.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
15.5
P/S (TTM)
0.83
P/FCF (TTM)
32.79
Rev YoY
+3.2%
EPS YoY
-122.3%
Gross Margin
+40.8%
Op Margin
+14.3%
Net Debt
$519.95M
Current Ratio
3.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data