B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HLIT
HarmonicCNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 validated a real broadband acceleration: 43% YoY broadband revenue growth, strong bookings/backlog, raised full-year broadband guidance, and a cleaner pure-play story if the Video sale closes. Post-print coverage appeared limited but constructive, so the upside case depends more on backlog conversion evidence than on a broad analyst revision cycle.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
What can break
Customer concentration remains high: two customers were about 36% and 22% of Q1 net revenue, so deployment timing still matters disproportionately. [#10-Q-2026-05-13]
Momentum
38
Value
55
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.80 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.14
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -18.5
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +4.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration remains high: two customers were about 36% and 22% of Q1 net revenue, so deployment timing still matters disproportionately. [#10-Q-2026-05-13]
- • Gross margin fell to 52.3% from 54.8% as mix shifted toward more outside plant services, showing that revenue growth is not translating cleanly into margin expansion yet. [#10-Q-2026-05-13]
- • The bearish read is that much of the good news is already visible in the raised guide and record backlog, while conversion risk remains high because Harmonic still has meaningful customer concentration, margin pressure from mix and outside plant services, stranded divestiture costs, and tariff/supply-chain exposure.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-11
Q1 broadband beat and raised FY2026 outlook reset the near-term narrative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.5
Δ21d
+16.1
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.5
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+10.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 37.6 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 61.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.46B
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
108.5M
P/E (TTM)
23.7
P/S (TTM)
1.77
P/FCF (TTM)
8.43
Rev YoY
+53.5%
EPS YoY
-183.8%
Gross Margin
+49.7%
Op Margin
+11.9%
Net Debt
$8.72M
Current Ratio
3.05
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data