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HIVE

HIVE DigitalC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that HIVE is using owned or controlled power and data-center assets to convert a cyclical mining story into longer-duration AI/HPC infrastructure cash flows; the Boden LOI and the recently announced note financing both support that transition if customer conversion and retrofit execution hold.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -12.0.
What can break
HIVE is still loss-making on a GAAP basis, so the AI/HPC pivot must scale faster than legacy mining volatility for sentiment to improve materially.
Momentum
21
Value
47
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.20 · Bull $5.20 · Bear $2.10Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.13
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +26.5
Value47 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -12.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -12.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • HIVE is still loss-making on a GAAP basis, so the AI/HPC pivot must scale faster than legacy mining volatility for sentiment to improve materially.
  • • Q4 FY2026 showed sequential mining revenue and EBITDA weakness, leaving near-term results exposed to Bitcoin price, network difficulty, and miner-margin compression.
  • • The bear case is that the AI/HPC rerating remains ahead of proof while core mining profitability is still highly exposed to Bitcoin price and network difficulty, and the new exchangeable notes can weigh on equity upside if the company must keep funding a capital-intensive pivot before stable customer cash flows arrive.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Zero-coupon exchangeable notes improve funding flexibility but add dilution and execution scrutiny

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+26.5
Δ21d
+27.3
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+3.0
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.0
Δ21d
-24.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 20.9 / Value 46.5 / Sentiment 74.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$838.27M
Beta
4.20
Shares Out
274.28M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
3.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.32
Rev YoY
+73.5%
EPS YoY
-395.5%
Gross Margin
-25.9%
Op Margin
-44.0%
Net Debt
$27.39M
Current Ratio
1.96
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data