B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HG
Hamilton Insurance GroupBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.1
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+70.8
Score
AI commentary
The SEC-filed company release confirms the August 6 earnings announcement and provides the Q2 operating metrics. The August 7 anchor price was $35.91, but the packet does not provide the prior close, an attributable post-release move, or reliable evidence that the price reaction was driven by results, guidance, or commentary. Recent analyst revision and target-change evidence after the print is also unavailable. News tone is directionally positive on the EPS beat and premium growth, but the underwriting deterioration and investment-income concentration support only tentative confidence.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-06eventQ2 earnings beat with strong premium growthMedium impact
Hamilton reported diluted EPS of $1.42 versus the packet's pre-earnings Zacks consensus of $0.96, while gross premiums written rose 16.7%, net premiums earned rose 14.6%, and annualized ROE was 20.6%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2026-08-07catalystUnderwriting quality remains the near-term swing factorMedium impact
Q2 combined ratio deteriorated to 95.0% from 86.8% year over year, with catastrophe losses contributing to a 7.8% current-year catastrophe loss ratio. A return toward stronger underwriting margins would support the shares; persistence could pressure them. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2027-08-08catalystGrowth, capital returns, and leadership continuityHigh impact
Premium growth, $22.1 million of Q2 share repurchases, and the extension of CEO Pina Albo's employment term through 2029 support a constructive longer-term execution thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology