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HG

Hamilton Insurance GroupA
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print was operationally strong on growth and returns: gross premiums written increased 16.7%, operating income was $158.2 million, operating ROE was 22.7%, and book value per share plus accumulated dividends increased 8.5% year to date. Capital returns and CEO continuity add support.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Catastrophe losses and business-mix changes could keep the combined ratio near or above 95%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
71
Value
63
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $43.00 · Bear $30.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.14
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d -4.0
Value63 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe losses and business-mix changes could keep the combined ratio near or above 95%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Investment earnings are unusually dependent on Two Sigma Hamilton Fund returns, which may be volatile.
  • • The headline beat was partly offset by weaker underwriting economics.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Q2 earnings beat with strong premium growth

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
71
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
+4.7
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
-17.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 70.8 / Value 63.0 / Sentiment 55.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$3.58B
Beta
-
Shares Out
98.61M
P/E (TTM)
6.5
P/S (TTM)
1.02
P/FCF (TTM)
3.23
Rev YoY
+15.4%
EPS YoY
-22.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
-$1.02B
Current Ratio
0.67
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data