B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HG
Hamilton Insurance GroupBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print was operationally strong on growth and returns: gross premiums written increased 16.7%, operating income was $158.2 million, operating ROE was 22.7%, and book value per share plus accumulated dividends increased 8.5% year to date. Capital returns and CEO continuity add support.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.
What can break
Catastrophe losses and business-mix changes could keep the combined ratio near or above 95%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
62
Value
62
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $43.00 · Bear $30.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.57
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +6.3
Value62 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Catastrophe losses and business-mix changes could keep the combined ratio near or above 95%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Investment earnings are unusually dependent on Two Sigma Hamilton Fund returns, which may be volatile.
- • The headline beat was partly offset by weaker underwriting economics.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 earnings beat with strong premium growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 61.5 / Value 62.0 / Sentiment 67.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.48B
Beta
-
Shares Out
98.61M
P/E (TTM)
6.5
P/S (TTM)
1.02
P/FCF (TTM)
3.23
Rev YoY
+15.4%
EPS YoY
-22.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
-$1.02B
Current Ratio
0.67
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data