B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
HCI
HCI GroupDNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained rate increases, favorable reserve development and execution on underwriting reduce the combined ratio materially; buybacks and earnings leverage drive upside to the bull target over a 12–18 month horizon.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Adverse reserve development from prior accident years
Momentum
80
Value
61
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2025-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $241.67
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +7.3
Value61 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment22 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adverse reserve development from prior accident years
- • Large catastrophe losses or accumulation events
- • A major catastrophe event or adverse reserve strengthening materially worsens reported results and forces a re-rating toward the bear target within a 12-month window; investment volatility could amplify downside.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings (beat/miss)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
80
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.3
Δ21d
+18.3
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
22
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 80.1 / Value 60.6 / Sentiment 22.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.54B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
12.44M
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
6.09
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
+8.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+51.0%
Net Debt
-$1.15B
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data