B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
HCI
HCI GroupFNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained rate increases, favorable reserve development and execution on underwriting reduce the combined ratio materially; buybacks and earnings leverage drive upside to the bull target over a 12–18 month horizon.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Adverse reserve development from prior accident years
Momentum
64
Value
62
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2025-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $241.67
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d -2.7
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment25 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adverse reserve development from prior accident years
- • Large catastrophe losses or accumulation events
- • A major catastrophe event or adverse reserve strengthening materially worsens reported results and forces a re-rating toward the bear target within a 12-month window; investment volatility could amplify downside.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings (beat/miss)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
+8.1
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
25
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 63.8 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 25.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.27B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
12.44M
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
6.09
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
+8.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+51.0%
Net Debt
-$1.15B
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data