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HBCP

Home BancorpB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
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Current thesis
Stable Q3 net interest income despite credit-related reversals leaves room for recovery if the six nonaccrual relationships resolve without sizable losses, as management currently expects. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
What can break
Core deposits declined $28.3 million and higher deposit costs contributed to a five-basis-point margin decline. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
Momentum
35
Value
62
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $62.00 · Bull $69.00 · Bear $49.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $68.00
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d -14.0
Value62 · Δ7d +1.9
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -10.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Core deposits declined $28.3 million and higher deposit costs contributed to a five-basis-point margin decline. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
  • • Nonperforming assets rose to $53.7 million, or 1.49% of assets, from $39.2 million, or 1.09%, quarter over quarter. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
  • • The EPS miss, 37% sequential increase in nonperforming assets, lower core deposits and narrower margin may signal more persistent credit and funding costs than the initial provision captures.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-20

Q3 earnings miss and credit deterioration

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
35
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.0
Δ21d
-17.8
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
+2.5
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.9
Δ21d
-19.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 34.7 / Value 62.5 / Sentiment 53.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$69.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$483.58M
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
7.87M
P/E (TTM)
10.3
P/S (TTM)
3.11
P/FCF (TTM)
13.41
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+1.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.1%
Net Debt
-$74.32M
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data