B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HBCP
Home BancorpBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 delivered sequential improvement in EPS, NIM, net interest income, loans, deposits, and dividend policy. If core-deposit momentum persists and criticized-loan losses remain limited, the $73 target is attainable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
A leadership transition to Darren E. Guidry as president introduces a continuity and execution item to monitor. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
Momentum
45
Value
60
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-07-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $73.00
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -2.3
Value60 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A leadership transition to Darren E. Guidry as president introduces a continuity and execution item to monitor. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
- • Criticized loans increased during Q2, creating risk of higher provisions or unexpected credit losses despite management's expectation of no sizable losses. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
- • Criticized loans increased during Q2, while low coverage and unavailable post-print analyst revisions limit confidence.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-20
Q2 earnings showed sequential operating improvement
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-7.3
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 45.2 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 65.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$565.51M
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
7.87M
P/E (TTM)
10.3
P/S (TTM)
3.11
P/FCF (TTM)
13.41
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+1.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.1%
Net Debt
-$74.32M
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data