B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
+31.2% vs current
HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure CapitalCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-11
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
+20.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
-3.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+22.0
Positive
Macro
+19.5
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+63.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source tone is constructive after earnings: the company reported better adjusted profitability, affirmed long-range targets, and highlighted liquidity plus pipeline support. However, this was a T+3 follow-up with no confirmed post-print analyst target/rating revision retrieved, and no trustworthy market-reaction source was confirmed beyond the packet's May 7, 2026 anchor close of $42.47, so conviction should stay moderate rather than aggressive. Social-context coverage was not provided, so sentiment leans mainly on company filings and press releases.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-07catalystQ1 print showed stronger adjusted earnings while 2028 targets were reaffirmedMedium impact
Q1 adjusted EPS rose 20% Y/Y to $0.77, adjusted recurring net investment income rose 29% Y/Y to $101 million, adjusted ROE reached 15.7%, and management reaffirmed 2028 adjusted EPS of $3.50-$3.60 plus adjusted ROE above 17% [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-06-30eventNeogenyx Fuels JV closing could add a visible growth leg in RNGMedium impact
HASI and Ameresco announced Neogenyx Fuels on May 4, 2026; HASI will own 30%, commit $400 million, and the JV was announced at a $1.8 billion post-money enterprise value with closing expected within the quarter [#PR-2026-05-04].
2026-12-31catalystPipeline conversion and funding execution support multi-quarter earnings scalingHigh impact
Management said Q1 closed approximately $637 million of transactions, the pipeline exceeded $6.5 billion, weighted average yields on new portfolio investments were above 10.5%, and total liquidity was about $2.3 billion with debt-to-equity at 1.6x within target range [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology