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GWRE

Guidewire SoftwareA
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Underlying demand remains strong: FY2026 revenue grew 23%, subscription and support revenue grew 33%, ARR grew 19%, and management cited record sales activity and low ARR attrition. Cloud migration and AI expansion could support durable growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +50.1.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, options data, short interest, social sentiment, and employee sentiment are unavailable.
Momentum
79
Value
49
Sentiment
92
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $175.00 · Bull $220.00 · Bear $125.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $216.62
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -8.3
Value49 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment92 · Δ7d +50.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +50.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, options data, short interest, social sentiment, and employee sentiment are unavailable.
  • • License revenue declined 18% in Q4, creating mix and timing risk despite strong subscription growth.
  • • The immediate issue is forward deceleration: Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance was below reported consensus despite a strong Q4, and the stock sold off sharply.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-03

Post-print reset after Q1 FY2027 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-8.3
Δ21d
-2.4
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
92
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+50.1
Δ21d
+40.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 78.7 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 92.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-03
Market Cap
$14.32B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
83.26M
P/E (TTM)
176.8
P/S (TTM)
12.43
P/FCF (TTM)
58.46
Rev YoY
+26.9%
EPS YoY
-63.8%
Gross Margin
+64.0%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
-$434.95M
Current Ratio
2.39
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data