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GWRE

Guidewire SoftwareD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
FY2026 showed durable cloud momentum: ARR grew 19%, fully ramped ARR 22%, subscription and support revenue 33%, and operating cash flow reached $389.7 million. Record sales activity, low ARR attrition, Nationwide's cloud commitment, and expansion into pricing and AI products support continued recurring-revenue growth and margin leverage.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
GAAP results remain sensitive to foreign exchange and stock-based compensation; Q4 GAAP net income included a $24.0 million foreign-currency loss. [#IR-2026-09-03]
Momentum
84
Value
49
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $165.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-09-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $216.62
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +10.8
Value49 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -12.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • GAAP results remain sensitive to foreign exchange and stock-based compensation; Q4 GAAP net income included a $24.0 million foreign-currency loss. [#IR-2026-09-03]
  • • Guidewire relies on a relatively small number of large customers and faces long, complex sales, development, and implementation cycles, which can produce quarterly volatility.
  • • The post-earnings selloff despite Q4 execution indicates that expectations were high and investors viewed the Q1 outlook cautiously.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

First-quarter FY2027 guidance test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
84
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+10.8
Δ21d
+67.3
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.7
Δ21d
-32.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 84.5 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 43.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$15.08B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
81.99M
P/E (TTM)
176.8
P/S (TTM)
12.43
P/FCF (TTM)
58.46
Rev YoY
+26.9%
EPS YoY
-63.8%
Gross Margin
+64.0%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
-$434.95M
Current Ratio
2.39
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data