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GWRE

Guidewire SoftwareA
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Underlying demand remains strong: FY2026 revenue grew 23%, subscription and support revenue grew 33%, ARR grew 19%, and management cited record sales activity and low ARR attrition. Cloud migration and AI expansion could support durable growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net neutral as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, options data, short interest, social sentiment, and employee sentiment are unavailable.
Momentum
78
Value
49
Sentiment
91
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $175.00 · Bull $220.00 · Bear $125.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $216.62
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -12.3
Value49 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment91 · Δ7d +47.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net neutral as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +47.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, options data, short interest, social sentiment, and employee sentiment are unavailable.
  • • License revenue declined 18% in Q4, creating mix and timing risk despite strong subscription growth.
  • • The immediate issue is forward deceleration: Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance was below reported consensus despite a strong Q4, and the stock sold off sharply.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-03

Post-print reset after Q1 FY2027 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.3
Δ21d
-7.7
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
91
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+47.0
Δ21d
+37.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 78.3 / Value 49.1 / Sentiment 91.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-03
Market Cap
$14.32B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
83.26M
P/E (TTM)
176.8
P/S (TTM)
12.43
P/FCF (TTM)
58.46
Rev YoY
+26.9%
EPS YoY
-63.8%
Gross Margin
+64.0%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
-$434.95M
Current Ratio
2.39
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data