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GTN

Gray MediaC
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary sources support a modestly better near-term revenue mix than the share price implies: core advertising grew 2% in Q1, political revenue accelerated with the on-year cycle, and the May 1 resolution of the satellite dispute could help retransmission comparisons as 2026 progresses.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
Net cash provided by operating activities was only $1 million in Q1 2026 versus $132 million a year earlier, reducing flexibility as Gray also funds acquisitions and remaining 2026 capex.
Momentum
85
Value
62
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.40 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $2.80Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.50
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -3.5
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Net cash provided by operating activities was only $1 million in Q1 2026 versus $132 million a year earlier, reducing flexibility as Gray also funds acquisitions and remaining 2026 capex.
  • • Recently closed station purchases increase integration and execution risk, and the initial accounting for some transactions was still incomplete in the 10-Q.
  • • The negative prior still fits the evidence.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-01

Retransmission pressure may partially normalize after the May 1 dispute resolution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+10.6
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+4.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 84.7 / Value 61.8 / Sentiment 55.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$521.25M
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
102.98M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM)
1.62
Rev YoY
+8.7%
EPS YoY
-129.5%
Gross Margin
+18.6%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$5.45B
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data