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GTN

Gray MediaB
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary sources support a modestly better near-term revenue mix than the share price implies: core advertising grew 2% in Q1, political revenue accelerated with the on-year cycle, and the May 1 resolution of the satellite dispute could help retransmission comparisons as 2026 progresses.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Net cash provided by operating activities was only $1 million in Q1 2026 versus $132 million a year earlier, reducing flexibility as Gray also funds acquisitions and remaining 2026 capex.
Momentum
62
Value
60
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.40 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $2.80Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.67
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +7.1
Value60 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Net cash provided by operating activities was only $1 million in Q1 2026 versus $132 million a year earlier, reducing flexibility as Gray also funds acquisitions and remaining 2026 capex.
  • • Recently closed station purchases increase integration and execution risk, and the initial accounting for some transactions was still incomplete in the 10-Q.
  • • The negative prior still fits the evidence.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-01

Retransmission pressure may partially normalize after the May 1 dispute resolution

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
62
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.1
Δ21d
-13.8
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 61.5 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 52.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$493.98M
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
102.98M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM)
1.62
Rev YoY
+8.7%
EPS YoY
-129.5%
Gross Margin
+18.6%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$5.45B
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data