B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.63
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
GRWG
GrowGenerationCNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
GrowGeneration meaningfully expands proprietary-brand penetration and improves unit economics in FY2026, hitting or exceeding guidance introduced 2026-03-19; that outcome supports multiple expansion toward the high analyst target (~$2.63). Primary evidence: company 8-K introducing FY2026 guidance [#8-K-2026-03-19].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Inventory build or SKU/mix margin compression
Momentum
82
Value
33
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.00 · Bull $2.63 · Bear $0.80Analysis 2026-03-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.50
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -
Value33 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory build or SKU/mix margin compression
- • Low analyst coverage concentration (2 analysts)
- • Demand softens, inventory turns slow, or proprietary-brand margins compress vs guidance; revenue and margin misses drive valuation below current levels and push shares toward sub-$1 levels.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-18
Near-term reaction to Q1 2026 operating cadence and margin trends
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 81.7 / Value 33.1 / Sentiment 65.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$111.36M
Beta
2.41
Shares Out
58.92M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.7
P/S (TTM)
0.56
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-15.47
Rev YoY
+5.5%
EPS YoY
-58.3%
Gross Margin
+21.5%
Op Margin
-10.6%
Net Debt
-$16.59M
Current Ratio
3.89
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data