B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GRPN
GrouponFNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 offered enough underlying stabilization to support management's FY26 outlook: North America Local billings turned positive, International trends improved excluding Giftcloud, active customers grew 5%, and management is pairing that with buybacks and an AI-led operating reset under Project Foundry [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
Capital allocation remains a balancing act: Groupon repurchased $21.3M of stock in Q1 and another $10.1M through the report date while also carrying 2027 and 2030 convertible notes [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
12
Value
45
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.67
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +5.1
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital allocation remains a balancing act: Groupon repurchased $21.3M of stock in Q1 and another $10.1M through the report date while also carrying 2027 and 2030 convertible notes [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Low coverage and limited post-print analyst revision data raise the risk that the stock trades more on headline interpretation than on a well-anchored consensus view.
- • The bearish read is that reported revenue was flat, units fell 5%, adjusted EBITDA declined, free cash flow stayed negative, and the quarter still showed demand friction in managed and organic channels plus merchant softness; with low analyst coverage, there is limited external validation yet that FY26 targets are achievable.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 print paired with maintained FY26 growth and cash-flow targets
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
-43.2
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
39
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+10.8
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 11.8 / Value 44.6 / Sentiment 39.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$825.51M
Beta
-0.01
Shares Out
40.67M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.8
P/S (TTM)
1.38
P/FCF (TTM)
11.36
Rev YoY
-0.8%
EPS YoY
-109.9%
Gross Margin
+89.1%
Op Margin
+1.5%
Net Debt
$23.99M
Current Ratio
0.79
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data