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GRND

GrindrC
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings read is constructive: Q1 growth was strong across app-based revenue and advertising, paying users rose to 1.385M, ARPPU increased to $25.63, and management raised 2026 guidance while still funding product, AI, and platform expansion.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
As of March 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $23.8M against total debt of $391.1M after aggressive repurchase activity, leaving the capital-return story more dependent on continued operating cash generation and revolver flexibility [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Momentum
41
Value
54
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.80
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +6.0
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +0.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • As of March 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $23.8M against total debt of $391.1M after aggressive repurchase activity, leaving the capital-return story more dependent on continued operating cash generation and revolver flexibility [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
  • • Competitive pressure may increase after Match Group’s $100M investment in Sniffies, which underscores strategic interest in Grindr’s category and could pressure user acquisition or monetization over time.
  • • This is still a monitoring-style bullish thesis, not a high-conviction re-rate call.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-08

Q1 beat and raised FY2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
-36.1
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+2.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 41.5 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 63.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.75B
Beta
0.23
Shares Out
173.82M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
31.7
P/S (TTM)
5.96
P/FCF (TTM)
17.60
Rev YoY
+32.5%
EPS YoY
+19.0%
Gross Margin
+74.1%
Op Margin
+31.1%
Net Debt
$313.54M
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data