B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$275.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GRMN
GarminCNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 showed real operating leverage rather than only a revenue beat: fitness surged 42%, consolidated gross margin expanded to 59.4%, operating margin reached 24.6%, and aviation/marine also contributed, which supports the positive deterministic prior for the next 20-120 trading days.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Auto OEM remained loss-making in Q1, so that segment is still a drag even though the loss narrowed. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Momentum
76
Value
43
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $258.00 · Bull $275.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $316.20
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -13.0
Value43 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Auto OEM remained loss-making in Q1, so that segment is still a drag even though the loss narrowed. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
- • FY2026 guidance was maintained rather than raised despite a strong quarter, which can cap near-term multiple expansion. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
- • The bear case is that management did not raise FY2026 guidance after a strong quarter, implying either conservatism or limited near-term visibility; outdoor declined 5% against a hard comparison, and investors may question whether fitness strength alone can keep driving upside once the immediate earnings beat is absorbed.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 earnings beat with fitness-led margin expansion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.0
Δ21d
-15.6
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+10.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 76.2 / Value 42.6 / Sentiment 55.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$258.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$59.3B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
192.85M
P/E (TTM)
25.1
P/S (TTM)
5.64
P/FCF (TTM)
56.18
Rev YoY
+11.4%
EPS YoY
+35.2%
Gross Margin
+60.1%
Op Margin
+27.6%
Net Debt
-$2.54B
Current Ratio
3.02
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data