B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$275.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GRMN
GarminDNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 showed real operating leverage rather than only a revenue beat: fitness surged 42%, consolidated gross margin expanded to 59.4%, operating margin reached 24.6%, and aviation/marine also contributed, which supports the positive deterministic prior for the next 20-120 trading days.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Auto OEM remained loss-making in Q1, so that segment is still a drag even though the loss narrowed. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Momentum
83
Value
43
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $258.00 · Bull $275.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $319.33
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +3.8
Value43 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -1.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Auto OEM remained loss-making in Q1, so that segment is still a drag even though the loss narrowed. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
- • FY2026 guidance was maintained rather than raised despite a strong quarter, which can cap near-term multiple expansion. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
- • The bear case is that management did not raise FY2026 guidance after a strong quarter, implying either conservatism or limited near-term visibility; outdoor declined 5% against a hard comparison, and investors may question whether fitness strength alone can keep driving upside once the immediate earnings beat is absorbed.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
Q1 earnings beat with fitness-led margin expansion
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
-6.3
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 82.7 / Value 42.7 / Sentiment 40.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$258.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$56.65B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
192.85M
P/E (TTM)
25.1
P/S (TTM)
5.64
P/FCF (TTM)
56.18
Rev YoY
+11.4%
EPS YoY
+35.2%
Gross Margin
+60.1%
Op Margin
+27.6%
Net Debt
-$2.54B
Current Ratio
3.02
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data