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GPRK

GeoParkB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that 1Q2026 showed a real operating and balance-sheet reset: revenue rose to $128.4 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $71.3 million with a 56% margin, cash climbed to $274.9 million, and net leverage improved to 1.3x, giving GeoPark room to fund its Argentina buildout while protecting downside with hedges [#PR-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
What can break
Argentina ramp execution risk remains the central uncertainty as drilling, fracking, and infrastructure expansion still need to convert into sustained production growth.
Momentum
75
Value
68
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.75 · Bull $11.50 · Bear $7.25Analysis 2026-07-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.76
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d -14.3
Value68 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Argentina ramp execution risk remains the central uncertainty as drilling, fracking, and infrastructure expansion still need to convert into sustained production growth.
  • • Colombia operations face disruption risk; the 1Q2026 operational update said CPO-5 production was hit by temporary blockades even though the issue was later resolved [#PR-2026-04-23].
  • • The bear case is that the current thesis still depends on proving out Argentina while Colombia remains exposed to blockades, natural decline, and realized-price leakage from hedges and differentials; if growth spending absorbs cash flow without a visible production step-up, the dividend pause could weigh on sentiment disproportionately for a low-coverage stock.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03

Realized-price and hedge drag will drive the next quarterly read

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.3
Δ21d
-12.2
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 75.5 / Value 67.8 / Sentiment 49.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$726.84M
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
64.9M
P/E (TTM)
10.9
P/S (TTM)
0.69
P/FCF (TTM)
18.44
Rev YoY
+19.6%
EPS YoY
-229.7%
Gross Margin
+42.8%
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
$479.22M
Current Ratio
1.17
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data