B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GPRK
GeoParkCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that 1Q2026 showed a real operating and balance-sheet reset: revenue rose to $128.4 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $71.3 million with a 56% margin, cash climbed to $274.9 million, and net leverage improved to 1.3x, giving GeoPark room to fund its Argentina buildout while protecting downside with hedges [#PR-2026-05-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.
What can break
Argentina ramp execution risk remains the central uncertainty as drilling, fracking, and infrastructure expansion still need to convert into sustained production growth.
Momentum
80
Value
69
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.75 · Bull $11.50 · Bear $7.25Analysis 2026-07-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.85
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +31.3
Value69 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -1.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Argentina ramp execution risk remains the central uncertainty as drilling, fracking, and infrastructure expansion still need to convert into sustained production growth.
- • Colombia operations face disruption risk; the 1Q2026 operational update said CPO-5 production was hit by temporary blockades even though the issue was later resolved [#PR-2026-04-23].
- • The bear case is that the current thesis still depends on proving out Argentina while Colombia remains exposed to blockades, natural decline, and realized-price leakage from hedges and differentials; if growth spending absorbs cash flow without a visible production step-up, the dividend pause could weigh on sentiment disproportionately for a low-coverage stock.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-31
Realized-price and hedge drag will drive the next quarterly read
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+31.3
Δ21d
+54.2
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+11.4
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
-26.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 79.6 / Value 69.2 / Sentiment 50.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$622.36M
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
64.9M
P/E (TTM)
10.9
P/S (TTM)
0.69
P/FCF (TTM)
18.44
Rev YoY
+19.6%
EPS YoY
-229.7%
Gross Margin
+42.8%
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
$479.22M
Current Ratio
1.17
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data